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HARDWOOD RECORD 



January 25, 1919 



No question is engaging public attention at the present time more 

 than that relating to the effect on business of the ending of the war. 

 Every industry is bound to be affected, and business problems will 

 be more or less difiicult of solution. For over a year the United 

 States government kept a tirm hand on the industrial as well as 

 other enterprises of the country, and it had become a custom to ask 

 what was desired or thought best. Now restrictions are being 

 rapidly removed and again individual initiative will have a free 

 hand and competition between separate companies in related in- 

 dustries will have its effect on both materials and labor and, there- 

 fore, on production and costs. 



Beacuse of the proximity of Canada to the United States, the 

 problems of like industries in both countries are somewhat similar, 

 and since the writer chanced to be on the Canadian side during 

 the past few weeks this article is prepared in the hope that it 

 may contain something of interest to the reader in the States. 



The fates decreed that I should celebrate the signing of the 

 armistice in the province of Ontario. So this investigation began 

 on November 1& instead of the date originally planned. In the 

 weeks that followed, nearly fifty users of lumber in twenty-two 

 localities were visited, as were also many buyers and retail fur- 

 niture merchants. 



While the manufacturers as a whole appear optimistic, and pro- 

 fess no fear of a slump, one occasionally finds a doubt expressed. 

 For one piano manufacturer said: 



"It is too soon to tell anything about what business will be, 

 and to be frank we are somewhat in doubt as to what to do and 

 so will go slowly. Lots of pianos have been sold to munitions 

 workers on the installment plan, and many of them have not been 

 paid for. If these workers are thrown out of employment, the 

 chances are that they will stall along for some ti.me before taking 

 up some other work at lower wages than they have recently had. 

 Then they will fail to meet payments when due and the pianos 

 will be turned back on the market. That also applies to phono- 

 graphs, and should this condition come about, the manufacturers 

 of these instruments will face a slump. ' ' 



In marked contrast were the remarks of another high-grade piano 

 manufacturer who, about a week later, said: 



"We think the piano business is going to be better than ever. 

 There are between 20,000 and 30,000 wives of Canadian soldiers 

 in England who went over with the early contingents. Then there 

 are said to be around 6,000 wives of Canadian soldiers who married 

 over there. One cannot tell how many of these families will re- 

 turn to Canada, because of the sad fact that one cannot tell how 

 many of the women are war widows, but it is reasonable to as- 

 sume that within the next year or two there will be many thousands 

 of new homes started in Canada by these families, and they will 

 be added to by soldiers who have been waiting for the war to end 

 before marrying. All of these will not be in position to buy 

 musical instruments at once, but many will, and users of pianos 

 and phonographs are certain to be on the increase as time goes on. ' ' 

 The two extremes of optimism and pessimism have been cited, 

 and, of course, both rest on unknown conditions. Other manufac- 

 turers confirmed these two in a conservative manner. Interviews 

 emphatically brought out the fact that these men are greatly 

 broadening their scope and looking beyond domestic consumption 

 for the building of future business. The element of labor enters 

 largely into the situation, and it goes without saying that neither 

 piano manufacturers nor any of the other re-manufacturers of 

 lumber expect to pay the relative high wages that have been in 

 vogue during the war. At the same time, skilled labor is urgently 

 needed in the piano industry to meet the domestic and export de- 

 mands for Canadian-made musical instruments. For a long time 

 makers have been unable to turn out a sufficient number to keep 



pace with demands. The enlistment of all employees eligible for 

 service, and other causes, have contributed towards reducing the 

 output of Canadian factories. Stringent regulation of "non-essen- 

 tial" industries tended to curtail the export shipments of pianos 

 from the United States, and since the Canadian industry has not 

 been wholly under the same disability, it may be expected to secure 

 some of the export business that previously was secured for the 

 other countries. So one gets the impression that these manufac- 

 turers are going after some of that business. The close study that 

 has been given the export field was brought out in conversations 

 with the different manufacturers. This is briefly summed up in 

 the following paragraphs. 



One factor that in the past operated against the displacing of 

 foreign pianos from some of the export markets was the relatively 

 higher price of the Canadian-made commercial piano, as compared 

 with that of some of the German-made instruments, which were 

 produced at as low a cost as $75 f. o. b. Hamburg. Some cheaper 

 American pianos also had an extensive sale in Argentina. The 

 prejudice against enemy goods created an opening for Canadian 

 pianos, and inquiries from importers have been received from 

 Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and England. In order to 

 meet these demands as well as home requirements, an increase of 

 output is necessary and, to secure this, skilled piano makers are 

 in demand. 



It has been estimated by trade interests that 5,000 German pianos 

 a year were imported into Argentina, while a correspondingly large 

 number went to Australia. With the enemy shut out of this field, 

 and the inability of British piano firms to continue their business 

 came some expansion of Canada's trade. While the pianos made in 

 Canada were somewhat higher in price than the majority of those 

 mentioned, many enquiries were received by firms in Toronto and 

 elsewhere. After trial shipments had been made, the orders began 

 to come, and difficulty has been experienced in keeping up with 

 the demands. 



It has been found that ten per cent of the total exports to for- 

 eign markets were of high grade pianos, and the other ninety per 

 cent were of commercial instruments. Grand pianos for concert pur- 

 poses have been in request to some extent. Exports during the last 

 three fiscal years were: $59,908 in 1916; 95,857 in 1917 and 123,552 

 in 1918. The fiscal year ends in March, and it is believed that the 

 current year will show considerable increase over that of 1918. 



So far as the furniture manufacturers are concerned, they have 

 the problem of filling depleted labor ranks, though they will be 

 able to use less skilled operators than piano manufacturers. Still 

 with the production hanging around forty per cent of possible 

 capacity on account of labor shortage, one can readily conceive 

 that many months will pass before maximum production will be 

 be reached. Not one manufacturer was found who did not have on 

 the books more orders than could be taken care of to the satis- 

 faction of the buyer. When asked if the merchants did not com- 

 plain because of slow shipments, the manufacturers would state 

 that they used to but for the most part they had got used to it and 

 were glad to get the goods when they could. 



Some manufacturers seem to feel that the high prices may hold 

 back an immediate increase of business in spite of the new homes 

 that are sure to be started as a result of the ending of the war. 

 Most of them, however, expressed the ojjinion that the increase 

 would come about as fast as they could take care of it. 



Some retail merchants possessed the idea that there might be a 

 slight depression for a few months while the change from a war 

 to a peace basis was being made. Still the whole situation was 

 rather ably expressed by the buyer of one of the largest retail 

 establishments in the Dominion, whose words, as correctly as the 



