32 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



Report of Market Conditions Committee 



Seven years ago at Traverse City, Mich., was held the flrst October 

 meeting of this association. 



To a manufacturer who did not attend that meeting, and take an active 

 part in It, a copy of the report of the market conditions committee would 

 not be very Impressive. It consisted of only three short paragraphs and 

 to us now might not seem to say much but within six months after the 

 meeting one of our members who was interested In two large operations 

 in Michigan made the statement that this report was worth $10,000 to 

 the two concerns In which he was interested. This manufacturer evi- 

 dently understood the language of the report and heeded its recommenda- 

 tions. 



We trust you will bear with the committee for this reminiscence as it 

 is not given in a boastful way but lest you forget as we are all inclined 

 to do. This manufacturer in particular may not forget this particular 

 benefit but many of you profited proportionately at the same time 

 have no doubt forgotten, just as you may have forgotten many other times 

 when you profited by the association work and statistics. 



The particular benefit referred to in the October 1906 report was due 

 largely to our statistics of that date, the faith of the members in those 

 statistics and confidence in the committee's report, all of which are neces- 

 sary to get the full benefit of association work. During these seven years 

 we have never had occasion to doubt the accuracy of our stock reports 

 and they are now recognized by not only ourselves but also by the whole- 

 saler, jobber, dealer and consumer as giving accurately the stock condi- 

 tions in northern hardwoods and hemlock, all of which is very gratifying 

 but we believe that the producer should study more closely the amount of 

 stock, sold and unsold, and make comparisons with like periods of other 

 years. This is one of the large factors in determining demand and 

 values. While your committee has undertaken to do some of this segre- 

 gating and comparing of the different stocks more of it should be done 

 by the Individual manufacturer. 



Taking into consideration the political and tariff agitation of the past 

 two years and the effect it has had in the general feeling of caution and 

 the slowing up of business in many lines, our stock reports of October 1, 

 1913, Indicate a very satisfactory condition generally in northern hard- 

 woods and hemlock. 



Total stocks of hardwood lumber are but three and one-half per cent 

 greater than the same period in 1912, a time when stocks were considered 

 unusually low and would not have been enough to supply a period of 

 good general business activity. They are only eighty per cent of 1911 stocks. 

 Maple in the grades of No. 2 common and better shows an Increase of 

 about 9,000,000 feet, nearly all of which is in the hands of maple floor- 

 ing manufacturers, who produce their own flooring stock, but the stock 

 of these grades Is 14,000,000 less than that of two years ago and maple 

 flooring conditions good as compared with most other years. Stocks of 

 No. 3 common maple are 5,000,000 feet more now than a year ago, but 

 they are 9,000,000 less than 1911, 14,000,000 less than 1910, and 20,000,- 

 000 less than 1909. Stocks of maple unsold in both No. 2 common and 

 better and No. 3 common are less than sixty per cent of a year ago and 

 much less than those of any year since 1907. 



Stocks of ash are about half what they have been for previous years. 

 The stock of basswood is about eighty-eight per cent of the 1911 and 

 1912 stocks and identical with that of 1910. Beech shows but 19.000,000 

 feet total stock as against 26,000,000 for 1912, 35,000,000 for 1911 and 

 43,000,000 for 1910. Birch and soft elm stock show a very slight in- 

 crease over the stocks of last year, but much less than either 1910 or 

 1911. 



The conclusions reached by your committee are that even with the de- 

 mand much less than normal during the coming year there should not 

 be, and probably will not be, much if any concession from present prices, 

 and that with good general business conditions a material advance may 

 be expected in the prices for northern hardwoods generally. 



In this connection your committee wishes to call to your attention the 

 Item commonly known among manufacturers as "good maple." You will 

 recall that about four years ago this committee had prepared a statement 

 showing the total stumpage owned by each member, the amount being cut 

 each year, and how long it would take for members to complete their 

 individual cuts. Time has verified the correctness of this report and while 

 the general cut of northern hardwood has not decreased in proportion to 

 the members completing the cut of stumpage owned by them, the cut of 

 "good maple" has increased nearly identically in that proportion, as the 

 new fields of operation do not contain the quality of maple found in the 

 old operations. Uses for this "good maple" have developed, showing it 

 superior to any other available wood for these particular purposes, and we 

 believe that a very material advance may be expected in the prices of 

 the l)etter grades 'of maple. 



We also call to your attention the item of beech. The use of this 

 wood has developed in the past few years more than any of our other 

 northern hardwoods. Its use was encouraged flrst because of the ex- 

 tremely low price for it, and then further developed because of its real 

 intrinsic value. It has stood the test and for many purposes it has been 

 found superior to the wood for which it was substituted. The use of 

 beech is firmly established now, the demand for it will increase beyond 

 the supply and there is no reason why it should not continue to sell at 

 a price so much below other northern hardwoods or any other wood that 

 might be substituted for it. The stock of beech for four years, if we had 



no other reason, would very conclusively Indicate a recommendation at 

 this time. 



Stocks of hemlock on hand Oct. 1 show a consistent and persistent 

 decrease during (he past few years, being 205,000,000 for 1910, 183,000,- 

 OOO for 1911. 119,000.000 for 1912 and 112.000,000 for 1913. As is well 

 known there has been much substitution of southern pine for hemlock, 

 but as is shown In the decreased stocks of hemlock, substitution has been 

 necessary. 



The use of hemlock is becoming more and more a local one but the 

 waning supply makes this condition imperative. Even with an increasing 

 amount of southern pine coming north the small amount of hemlock In 

 stock at present should and probably will be absorbed at present prices. 

 The use of hemlock when it has preference and when a building lumber 

 must be had quickly should keep up demand for it to the extent of the 

 supply. 



Stocks on hand Oct. 1, 1913, are 13,000,000 as against 17,000,000 for 

 1912 and are in very urgent demand, good prices prevailing for prompt 

 shipment. 



Mr. Odell's comment foUawing the reading of the report brought 

 out the fact that there was only three and one-half per cent greater 

 stock on hand at the time of compiling his statistics this year than 

 in 1912. He also stated that the best of maple lumber should be- 

 bringing $5 a thousand more than it really is bringing, and also said 

 that an effort should be made to bring about that condition. 



In speaking of beech, Mr. Odell said that he considers it the best 

 vfood for various uses to vphich it is now put, that could be possibly 

 secured. He said that the supply will shortly be found to be less- 

 than the demand. 



Commenting upon conditions in Wisconsin, K. S. Kellogg, secre- 

 tary of the Northern Hemlock and Hardwood Manufacturers' Asso- 

 ciation, Wausau, stated that statistics which will be presented at 

 the forthcoming meeting of his association show that on Oct. 1 

 there was from ten to fifteen per cent less hemlock than a year ago, 

 and that there was no increase in the quantity of hardwood. He- 

 stated that while there was a slight increase in the hardwood log^ 

 input this year over last year there was no increase in hemlock. 

 He stated further that firm prices in hardwood and hemlock pre- 

 vailed all year, in spite of the fact that yellow pine has been 

 making big inroads into the hemlock market and is selling in th& 

 northern market for from $3 to $4 less than hemlock, in which 

 there has been no change during the last two months. 



Mr. Kellogg made the interesting observation that prices will 

 unquestionably be stiff during this season, partly because of the 

 fact that it is certain that the cost of logging in the territory in 

 which the membership of his association operates will increase from 

 twenty-five cents to a dollar a thousand over last year. 



President Eichardson then introduced George S. Wood, manager 

 of the Forest Products Exposition. Mr. Wood told of the purpose 

 and growth of the Forest Products Exposition plan, and stated that 

 his plans are based on his experience with past expositions. He 

 expressed the belief that the exposition will come out better than 

 even. 



It was finally decided, by motion, that the association buy the 

 forty shares at a cost of $2,000, as an association, and join with the 

 Wisconsin association if it seems best to the board of directors to 

 do so. 



The motion also carried with it the provision to provide a sum of 

 money not exceeding $2,500 from the association's funds for the 

 purpose of preparing the exhibit. The motion was carried. 



In speaking on the subject of inter-insurance. President Eichard- 

 son said that he thought a committee should be appointed to work 

 along the lines suggested at the Kansas City meeting of the 

 National Lumber Manufacturers' Association. A resolution to this 

 effect was made and carried. 



C. A. Bigelow moved that the regular assessment of ten cents a 

 thousand feet be made, which motion was carried. 



The meeting terminated with an interesting discussion regarding 

 water stocks and reports of sales of water shippers. 



G. von Platen stated that the reports had been of great benefit, 

 inasmuch as they tended to hold the market on a uniform level. 



D. H. Day advised that association members hold on to water 

 stock as long as they could, as there was absolutely no necessity 

 for contracting a long way ahead for shipments of this sort. 



The meeting then adjourned. 



