flaMwol RqcoM 



Published in the InleresI of ihe American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Wood-Working Machinery, on the lOlh and 25lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Henry H. Gibson. Editor and Manager 

 Edwin \V. Meeker"! . 

 Hu Maxwell J 



^Associate Editors 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XXXVII 



CHICAGO, JANUARY 25. 1914 



No. 7 



^ i »y^.>-o 



:. :c;;.i).N:<;to:^ysy>sty^i^.5o;iWit!>i>^^Wii:itt tf^ M 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



THE VARIOUS CONVENTIOXS that have taken place in the last 

 two weeks have developed an excellent indication of the 

 present and promised condition of the lumber business. With- 

 out exception, the tone of all of these meetings, embracing both 

 northern and southern operations, has been soundly optimistic. By 

 soundly optimistic is meant that there has been no tendency to view 

 the situation in the light of a boom, but all expressions regarding 

 the present and immediate future of the lumber trade indicate that 

 there will be an apparent, though conservative and entirely legiti- 

 mate, improvement in the situation. In fact, summing up the opin- 

 ions of some of the biggest men in the trade, men who are closely 

 in touch with economic factors which have a direct bearing on the 

 lumber business, 1914 promises to be one of the biggest trade years 

 on record. 



The encouraging sentiments expressed are based first on the im- 

 proved tone of business conditions in general which are the result 

 of the settlement of political questions at Washington and the assur- 

 ance that has been given to business men that the administration will 

 not interfere with legitimate business enterprise and development. 

 With this assurance, business men have taken new heart and have 

 for the most part overcome the mental depression which has been 

 evident for several months. This has naturally reflected directly 

 upon the lumber business, in that it has affected the demand for the 

 products made from lumbA and hence the demand for lumber itself 

 is strengthened. 



This condition is supported by a really favorable status of stocks 

 at both mills and consuming points. As far as the mills are con- 

 cerned, both in the North and the South, the stock situation is very 

 favorable, while it is a generally conceded fact that the stocks on 

 consumers ' yards have not been so light for a long time. 



It is true that a recent report coming from northern manufacturers 

 states that their stocks are heavier than at the beginning of 

 1913, although lighter than the year before that. But it must be 

 remembered that last year stocks of northern operators w-ere too 

 light even to fill the ordinary demands. Hence any reasonable in- 

 quiry this year is rather favorable than unfavorable, as it will un- 

 questionably develop in the course of the next few months that the 

 call for northern products will take up all available stocks. Regard- 

 ing the South, it is impossible to view stock conditions there in any 

 other light than that stocks are really below normal. In fact, some 

 large operators say that while they have carried as much as 30,000,000 

 feet of dry lumber on sticks they now have only 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 

 feet. Furthermore, it is promised that there is little likelihood of 

 there being any accumulation over present stocks, as logging condi- 



tions have Mt been ui^duly favorable, and it is expected that increased 

 demand will take care of any increase in output. 



It has been stated before in these columns that the larger stocks 

 are in strong hands and are being held for improved prices. This is 

 an absolute fact. The larger operators have expressed themselves 

 very vigorously on this score and it is generally anticipated that the 

 owners of the bulk of the southern hardwoods are strong enough 

 financially to refuse orders of any dimension for future shipment. 

 They are willing to take care of the trade for the present, but will 

 not contract for any large deliveries ahead. In fact, one of the 

 largest operators in the South made the decisive statement a short 

 time ago that he had realized $1.60 more on an average for his lum- 

 ber during 1913 than ever before, and that if his lumber did not 

 bring him a $2.00 increase this year on the general level, every stick 

 of it would stay in his yard. This particular man is in an excellent 

 position to carry out this suggestion, as are many others who have 

 expressed themselves similarly. 



Looking at business on the broader basis, the country is in really 

 sound condition. The money situation has been very materially im- 

 proved and it is now possible to secure necessary funds at normal 

 rates. A great deal more money has been placed in circulation dur- 

 ing the last few weeks. In fact, it is reported that for the three 

 weeks of January banks reported greater deposits than for any 

 three weeks of 1913. This is going to very materially aid industrial 

 development and industrial investment throughout the country, as 

 well as to assist in the general restoration of prosperous conditions 

 and the resultant broadening of the market. 



The various woods show a proportionate improvement, with the 

 greatest strengthening in the upper grades. Quartered oak is still 

 a strong factor and it is reported that plain oak is showing a no- 

 ticeably increased demand. It cannot be said that the gum situation 

 has improved very much, although there is proof that such an im- 

 provement is anticipated in the near future. As an instance, one 

 large manufacturer recently turned down an order for 1,000,000 feet 

 for future delivery and advised its customer that it would take care 

 of its immediate requirements, but had entire confidence in an im- 

 proved condition in the gum market during the next few months. 

 This sentiment is apparent throughout the gum-producing section. 



Sunmiing up, the general sentiment seems to be that business looks 

 good but that business men should not soar too high from the 

 ground, but maintain a level and conservative position, there being 

 a practical assurance that a healthy and satisfactory improvement 

 will be consistently and continuously evident in the situation for some 

 months to come. In fact, it is sanely and sincerely predicted by a 

 great many of the most conservative and most successful lumbermen 

 of the country that 1914 will be one of the biggest yeajg in the his- 

 tory of the lumber business. 



