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Published in ihe InlcresI of ihe American Hardwood Foresls. the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Wood- Working Machinery, on the lOlh and 25lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Henry H. Gibson, Editor and Manager 

 Edwin W. Meeker"! 

 Hu Maxwell 



^Associate Editors 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XXXVII 



CHICAGO, MARCH 25, 1914 



No. 11 



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Review and Outlook 



QAie 



General Market Conditions 



A COUNTRYWIDE RUSH of iiuiuiries for all kinds of hard- 

 woods has been apparent during the last two or three weeks. 

 This is true in all centers and seems to apply to all grades and kinds 

 of hardwood lumber. As a consequence, the luniberuieu throughout 

 the country have been puzzled to decide whether or not the inquiries 

 are an indication of the immediate return of active business, or 

 whether as a general thing it was simply a question of feeling about 

 by the buyers as to the possibilities of a further break in the 

 market. In either event, there seems to be but one logical course for 

 the wise lumberman to pursue. If the inquiries are as a general 

 thing bona fide, it is of course needless to say that prices will hold 

 up firmly, and will attain even a more favorable level, but if the 

 majority of inquiries are shown to be merely feelers, which it seems 

 they are, it is entirely up to the lumberman to provide his own salva- 

 tion by adhering to a fair level of prices in all markets. 



In other words, if with this influx of inquiries there is shown a 

 tendency to break in order to place orders on the books, the result 

 will be a still further drag on the part of the buying trade, and a 

 continued hesitancy in the placing of any kind of favorable busi- 

 ness. On the other hand, if a strong front is shown and producers 

 and wholesalers generally show that they have confidence in the 

 future of hardwood stocks as good property, the result will be that 

 the buying trade will realize that the uncertain situation is about 

 over and will gradually return to normal buying conditions. 



This condition is rather proven by the attitude of large consum- 

 ing concerns whose yards contain millions and in some cases as much 

 as 100,000,000 feet of dry hardwood stocks. These people, of course, 

 are in position to run some little time without purchases, and in 

 fact they are the ones who are strongest in their continuance of the 

 jiolicy of retrenchment as far as lumber purchases are concerned. 

 It is very evident that the concern which uses millions of feet of 

 lumber in a year in the production of its articles is bound to be as 

 a matter of business policy a bear on the market. Hence any evi- 

 dent policy which they assume towards producers can be presumed to 

 be instigated by some such motive. These classes of concerns have 

 been, as stated, the most consistent non-buyers and give evidence 

 that their policy is the result of a belief in their ability to "bear" 

 the hardwood market and to secure stocks at more favorable prices 

 than they can now be purchased at. It is obvious then that this atti- 

 tude is the result of a beUef that the lumbermen will prove them- 

 selves strong enough to continue to hold for fair values. It is not 

 the result of lack of business on tlie part of these concerns, as 

 [iractiially without exception they are recording themselves as being 

 in most excellent condition as far as prospects for sales are con- 



cerned. Hence, it behooves the hardwood trade to maintain as firm 

 a front as possible in the face of such conditions. 



The extremely unsatisfactory condition of the export trade from 

 all ports of the country, as far as hardwoods are concerned par- 

 ticularly, is unquestionably having its effect on domestic conditions. 

 For instance, the communications from the port of Baltimore indicate 

 that in February of this year in some it<?ms there was about only 

 one-half as much lumber shipped as in February of 1913. The re- 

 sult of this is that a great deal of stock which would have gone to 

 the foreign markets is this year diverted to domestic consumers. 

 This simply means that there is a greater quantity of stock to be 

 taken up locally than last year. 



It is not to be wondered at, then, that prices are not so firm as 

 they were at that time. Still there is a deplorable tendency on the 

 part of a great many lumbermen to continue in a pessimistic mood, 

 resulting from a comparison of prices of this year with those of 

 last. Tliere does not seem to have been a proper realization of the 

 abnormal conditions which effected the extremely high prices in some 

 items of hardwood which prevailed a year ago. As a general thing 

 the price level which is being maintained at the present time is en- 

 tirely fair, considering the general conditions. 



The effect which inclement weather conditions have on the general 

 hardwood market is clearly shown by the varying reports which come 

 from different centers of the country at this time, some sections 

 being overwhelmed with snow and wintry weather while others are 

 enjoying springlike conditions. In the first class the reports con- 

 tinue to be rather optimistic and are couched in terms of hope for 

 the future. In the other reports the opening up of spring weather 

 has resulted in more active inquiry and more active buying and 

 movement of stocks, which is not only the result of renewed activi- 

 ties, but comes from a more cheerful frame of mind resulting from 

 the more agreeable weather. This, while a psychological factor, is 

 one that should not be entirely overlooked. 



It appears that, to use the expression of the sales manager of a 

 large southern concern, we are ' ' on the brink of the crater of a 

 volcano of business." The underlying and internal conditions which 

 would tend toward a re-opening of entirely normal buying condi- 

 tions as far as lumber is concerned, are most excellent. These con- 

 ditions have been apparent for some little time and continued favor- 

 able comment as to the aspect of their business as given by the 

 buyers themselves, gives increasing reason for logical hope for the 

 future. It appears, however, that there is something unusual behind 

 the present slowness, and, as stated before, this can probably be 

 attributed to a large extent to the fact that one buyer is waiting 

 for the other. If a few of the largo concerns who are in a position 

 to place big orders should go into the market, the rest would follow. 



