HARDWOOD RECORD 



J2 



half below what should have been oonsidered prerailing market values. 

 The result on the general market, of I'ourse, is too apparent to need 

 any detailed explanation, but it would seem that the resulting effect 

 upon the shipper himself would be too appalling to make it possible 

 for him to continue to do business in that manner. Yet reports are 

 abroad telling of constantly repeated consignment shipments on the 

 same basis, the result being that there is an overstocked market 

 there and a decided disinclination on the part of the buying trade to 

 take up stocks at any kind of fair prices, as they can realize much 

 more favorably by waiting for the general market to break as a 

 result of such consignment shipments. 



Associations have made an effort to get under this matter and put 

 a stop to it, but it seems to be beyond their scope, as the small 

 shippers are probably tho chief offenders. In fact, it seems to be 

 almost impossible to check this tendency, and probably it will con- 

 tinue until the domestic market has so shaped itself that consignment 

 \ shipments are no longer necessary. 



Decline in Lumber Exports 



-pUE EXPORTS OF LUMBER and oth.r forest products for 

 ■I January of this year were twenty per cent below those for 

 January last year. This state of affairs is shown by the latest 

 figures published by the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Com- 

 merce of the United States. The various items which make up 

 the totals are given, and it is possible to determine along what 

 j lines the principal decline has occurred. Increase is shown in a 



' few instances. Hickory logs this year were exported in three times 



the quantity shipped last year. Douglas fir lumber increased about 

 forty per cent. This is a Pacific coast wood, and does not come 

 into sharp competition with any other American wood, and it has 

 practically a world wide market. Redwood, another Pacific coast 

 product, sho^vs a similar increase in exports. The exports of spruce 

 were much larger this year than last. This lumber is cut from 

 both eastern and western species, but chiefly from the red spruce 

 of New England and Sitka spruce of tho Pacific coast. It thus 

 appears that Pacific coast lumber makes up most of the increase 

 in exports. 



Small increases are shown by some manufactured articles, like 

 box shooks, barrel heading, and empty barrels, but in none of 



I these is the gain of much importance. 



A very different showing is made in itemizing the figures which 

 measure the falling off in exports when the past January is com- 

 pared with that of 1913. Almost every item is on the wrong side 

 of the ledger from the view point of the American exporter. The 

 slump in the total for round logs exceeded fifteen per cent, not- 

 withstanding the fine showing made by hickory. Hewed timbers 

 did almost as poorly, while sawed timber exports fell off nearly 

 sixty per cent, that is, from a value of $1,018,126 in January, 1913, 

 to $436,923 in January of this year. 



The results are equally discouraging in many items of the sawed 

 lumber exports. Every one of them, except the three mentioned 

 above, fell off. Red gum nearly held its own; oak dropped ten 

 per cent; white pine about the same; longleaf pine lacked eighteen 

 per cent of equaling last year 's figures ; shortleaf pine was seventy- 

 five per cent in the bad; yellow poplar was only about twelve 

 per cent under former figures; joists and scantling were sixty per 

 cent below; while shingles made the exceedingly poor showing of 

 only ten per cent of the total for January last year. Barrel shooks 

 dropped below half, staves nearly to half, and so on down the line 

 of doors, sash, blinds, furniture, woodenware; and even wood pulp 

 fell fifty per cent below last year's figures. 



The imports from foreign countries were almost exactly the same 

 for the two Januaries, the decline not amounting to one per cent. 

 The most noticeable falling off was in Spanish cedar, which is a 

 cigar-box wood. Mahogany showed a slight decline, as did sawed 

 lumber; but tho import of shingles increased more than forty per 

 cent, and wood pulp enough to offset all declines in other products. 



It would be difficult to find a reason for this regrettable decline 

 in exports that would be satisfactory to all. The plain truth is 

 that lumber dealers in this country are losing the foreign markets. 



This may be temporary. A single month is not time enough to 

 warrant a positive conclusion on the subject. Apparent losses may 

 be nmde good when later returns have been received, and business 

 may look better. Every good American would like to hope so; 

 but ' ' hope is desire with some expectation, ' ' and though the 

 "desire" is strong, there does not just now appear to be much 

 ground for the "expectation." 



It may not be too late to get that increase in traile which the 

 removal of the lumber tariff was to bring. Such increase may 

 be on the way, but lumbermen have not yet become aware of its 

 arrival. 



The summing up of both imports and exports shows that the 

 people of the United States are buying about as liberally in for- 

 eign lumber markets as they were last year, but they are not selling 

 so much; consequently, tho balance of trade in this line is turning 

 against us. 



The Future Price of Lumber 



I T MAY BE ACCEPTED as a certsinty that the price of lumber 

 ■1 in years to come will be higher than it now is, or than it has 

 been in the past. The days of cheap lumber are nearly over in 

 this country, and industries which depend upon wood must accept 

 the change which is coming. The change will not be sudden, nor 

 will it be brought in by any violent disturbance of conditions. It 

 has been on the way a long time, and has been arriving for some 

 years. 



Tlie price of lumber heretofore has been fixed by the cost of 

 stumpage, the expense of cutting, sawing, selling, and interest. 

 Precisely these factors wiU continue to fix the price in the future; 

 but there is bound to come a radical readjustment in the cost of 

 stumpage. The other items of cost may remain much as they are 

 now. 



It is an old story, often told, how Nature produced the forests 

 from which past supplies have been cut. Nature did this cheaply, 

 because she did not buy the land, did not pay taxes, aud time was 

 no element of expense; but Nature is now getting out of the timber 

 business and is handing it over to men. The future lumber must 

 come from forests owned by men, cared for by men, and every 

 turn will cost money, and all expenses must be paid before the 

 lumber can be used by the final consumer. 



Although Nature produces trees more cheaply than men can do 

 it, yet men can produce more on a given tract and in a given time 

 — but it costs more. The improvements which will come in forestry 

 will consist in getting rid of worthless species, the weed trees, as 

 they are called ; in keeping the stands thinned suflicicnt!/ to secure 

 the most rapid growth; in cutting at the right time and in the 

 right way; but this costs, and the ultimate consumer must pay 

 the bills. 



There are now supposed to be 2,800,000,000,000 feet, board meas- 

 ure, of standing timber in the United States. This is merchantable 

 timber, and does not include scrub stuff, tops, limbs, and scraps. The 

 annual drain upon this timber is not known. Some of the largest 

 items have been carefully determined, such as lumber, ties, pulp- 

 wood, and distillation material. Other items have been estimated, 

 of which fuel is usually considered to be the largest. But some 

 of these items, as fuel, pulpwood, and distillation wood, do not 

 come wholly, or even chiefly, from what is classed as merchantable 

 timber. 



Tho annual drain upon merchantable timber has been variously 

 estimated, but the equivalent of 100,000,000,000 feet, board measure, 

 is conservative. If this figure is taken, the timber now standing 

 will meet demands for from twenty-five to thirty years. This takes 

 no account of new growth. It has not been customary in the past 

 to pay much attention to annual growth; but it is hsre that the 

 change is coming, and it will be a square face-about. In the future, 

 the old st;intl will be depended on less and less, and the yearly 

 growth more and more, until finally the annual growth will be the 

 only matter considered, because the whole supply will come from 

 that source. 



