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Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1921 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the loth and 25th of each Month, by ' 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin \V. Meeker, Vice Pres. and Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary-Treasurer 

 Lloyd P. Robertson, Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



Vol. LI I 



CHICAGO, OCTOBER 25, 1921 





No. 1 



Review and Outlook 





General Market Conditions 



WITH APPROXIMATELY TWO MONTHS of actual business left 

 during the current year, it becomes more and more apparent that 

 those predictions of improvement before January one were based on 

 sound reasoning. Prophesies favorable to the immediate future of 

 business have not been based so much on expectation of greatly en- 

 larged demand, as on realization that with radical curtailment of pro- 

 duction there is real possibility of the balance between production and 

 consumption soon being attained. Evidently the evidences of im- 

 provement which with each week are becoming more general, are the 

 result of at least patrial realization of that balance. 



At the same time, while it is difficult to prove, by figures, that the 

 actual volume of demand in hardwoods has shown a marked increase, 

 at least it is difScult to actually analyze that increase and show its 

 direction and extent, the fact remains that those who have hardwood 

 lumber for sale are justified in their much more optimistic viewpoint. 

 Por a considerable period immediately prior to the visible turn in 

 business affairs, sales offices had been deluged with inquii-ies, most of 

 which were quoted on, but few developed business. It was soon ap- 

 parent that these were not bona fide indications of a desire for im- 

 mediate purchase of hardwood lumber. Of late, however, the propor- 

 tion of actual business originating from inquiries, has been noticeably 

 increased until, today, it is not at all unusual for bona fide sales to 

 result from a majority of such communications. It is equally perti- 

 nent that in a great many such cases, request is made for immediate, 

 or wire quotation, which quite frequently is followed by wire accept- 

 ance. In fact, the volume of such hurry-up business is constantly 

 growing, and reveals a dire shortage in some quarters of certain much- 

 soughtfor items. 



All of these circumstances have led to a very much more healthy 

 state of mind in hardwood circles. The man having hardwood lumber 

 to sell feels that he is at least beginning to have some voice in the 

 value which must be placed on it. Of course, for some time past, he 

 has been feeling more or less independent regarding his first and 

 seconds grades because of the general knowledge that the supply of 

 this material was rapidly nearing exhaustion. He has, though, been 

 burdened with an excessive load in his low grade, but is now begin- 

 ning to feel a discernible effect of the general demand as it passes 

 down from grade to grade with the firming of prices which started 

 with the uppers. 



In spite of the considerable clarifying of the business atmosphere 

 in hardwood regions, it is doubtful if the effect upon this wmter's 

 production will be material as the season has already so far advanced 

 as to preclude the possibility of change in policy on the part of many 

 operators. In the ease of such firms as have not ceased their woods 

 and saw mill work, it is likely that continuance of present improvement 

 will cause them to keep on with their operations rather than, as 

 ]>rcviously planned, closing down with the end of the fall logging 

 season. However, but a very small percentage of hardwood production 

 has been maintained without interruption during the late sunmier 

 and fall months, and in the case of those who are not now actually 

 operating, there is very little likelihood that further improvement wiil 

 bring them into production. 



Thus, such improved position as is attained over the next couple of 

 months, will quite likely remain established throughout the winter, 

 for the deplorably broken state of hardwood stocks is sufl3cient reason 

 to make many buyers wonder where their next year 's supply will come 

 from. Even casual examination of mill piles reveals a surprisingly 

 small percentage of new lumber, the bulk of such piles being made up 

 of six to twelve months' old material, in many cases representing the 

 lower grades. With decreasing sujiply and increasing price on the 

 uppers, inroads are already being made into the stocks of less desir- 

 able material. 



In its prophesies of markets during the past six or eight months. 

 Hardwood Record has laid more stress on decreasing supplies than 

 on increasing demands. It appears now, though, that the latter phase 

 is constantly developing and that, in fact, some industries which have 

 shown an almost total absence of activity, are now again developing 

 a breath of life. For instance, a slight murmur seems to be coming 

 from the agricultural implement folks and the railroads, and already 

 a substantial evidence of renewed business is developing in automobile 

 circles. Behind this are many of the other stable industries, such as 

 building in its many ramifications, and furniture. In both of the 

 latter cases, a healthy development seems assured, though a full 

 volume of business has not yet been attained and will probably be 

 r.athcr slow of developing. Nevertheless, consistent improvement has 

 been noted over recent months, and is likely to continue up to around 

 the first of the year, when, of course, business in general may reason- 

 ably expect the seasonal dullness resulting from inventories and other 

 seasonal activities. 



