*. " •* 



MMM RocoM 



Copyright. The Hardwood Company, 1921 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin W. Meeker, Vice Pres. and Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary-Treasurer 

 Llovh p. Robertson, Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 South Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



Vol. LII 



CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 25, 1921. 



No. 3 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



EVENTS ARK SHAPING THEMSELVES WITH INCREAS- 

 ING RAPIDITY in the himlier markets, major features be- 

 ing the solid stiffening in values and apparent reaction of lower 

 grade hardwoods to the activity in uppers. Many reams of paper 

 have been used to show that one's reckoning of today is based on 

 a new set of conditions, but in the final analysis it is found that 

 business is governed still by just those relations between available 

 supply and visible demand, which since the bartering of the stone 

 ages has determined how rapidly and how satisfactorily goods 

 shall sell. Seriously impaired stocks in firsts and seconds could 

 not but cause an effort to cover on this grade, which in turn 

 greatly stiffened the selling market with such further spread in 

 the grade differential that common soon began to look good to 

 many people. Simultaneously such industries as habitually are 

 low grade users have developed increased signs of life and the re- 

 sultant effect has been to clearly bring common lumber to the 

 point where it can seriously be considered in company with its 

 more aristocratic companion. 



One can but be impressed with the solid definiteness of the cur- 

 rent improvement in hardwood markets and with its legitimacy. 

 There is no false note in the current metamorphosis. In fact, it 

 might almost be said that the erstwhile depression smacked more 

 of an artificial inspiration. The depression continued in increas- 

 ing intensity in spite of an underlying strata of favorable facts 

 and growing optimism. The improvement on the other hand re- 

 fused to come out in the open until compelling economic combina- 

 tions forced it. 



In examining the promise of the future, the observer is 

 naturally prompted to observe all such symptoms aa may come 

 within his ken. Thus it is well worth a measure of anyone's time 

 to analyze the activities within the big city department stores. 

 A few months ago such a trip would cause a sensation of utmost 

 depression. We were being told that there was no longer any 

 buying power left among our people, therefore no retail selling. 

 The truth of the matter was, as this column pointed out at the 

 time, that though buying power was reduced that reduction was 

 not serious in extent and that actually the country was accumulat- 

 ing a tremendous reserve in buying ability that would be released 

 only by liquidation of retail values. It took a long time for re- 

 tailers in most lines to see that and in fact todav there are still 



recalcitrant merchants who have not realized that they are mak- 

 ing themselves obnoxious through adherence to unhealthy and un- 

 holy price tags. But liquidation- has been accomplished in a large 

 proportion of cases, at least, to. the point where the ground hog 

 dollar again finds that he casts a shadow big enough to make it 

 worthwhile to hang around a bit and see how things go. So in 

 the big retail stores there is a quantity of genuine buying that 

 is actually moving goods in volume. The obviously high priced 

 articles are being left largely alone, but evidences of honest 

 pricing are bringing- out the reserve buying power in impressive 

 fashion. Haedwood Recoed believes this to be a most satisfying 

 sign for such successful selling applies as well to furniture and 

 similar lines of wood fabrication as to more commonplace mer- 

 chandise. Doubts have arisen as to whether or not the improve- 

 ment extant had suflScient vitality to survive the anticipated mid- 

 winter dullness. Retail buying has thus far improved without the 

 favorable influence of Christmas trade. This latter factor is now 

 coming in also and with but a continuance of what is now antici- 

 pated, retail sales will by the end of the year have piled up 

 enough potential orders for the manufacturers to easily bridge 

 what might well have been a dangerous chasm. 



There is probably no necessity for tabulating the causes of these 

 desirable effects. Business is good with many lines of importance 

 in hardwood consumption. The furniture men are happy under an 

 accumulation of from four to sis weeks' orders. Housing is 

 steadily improving in an unostentatious way, but in considerable 

 volume. The movement of flooring is an excellent mark of this 

 activity. Some items of flooring are now almost unprocurable 

 and it has now reflected back to the lumber. Flooring, maple, 

 for instance, is getting scarce. Other encouraging influences are 

 getting underway among which are some fine orders and pleasing 

 tenders from the railroad companies. 



All these facts on the buying end arc working out without any 

 perceptible change in production. Stocks which a few weeks 

 ago were merely badly assorted, are now thoroughly combed over. 

 It is true that the amount of potential underproduction has been 

 reduced by the improved market, but this power can not come 

 into effect for many months. 



The only visible sign of peril, and at that it will be a peril of 

 purely psychological origin, lies in the mid-winter dullness which 

 is inevitable. Already, in fact, there is some slight evidence of 

 interruption to purchases because of inventory considerations, 



