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Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Loggine Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin W. Meeker, Vice Pres. ami Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary-Treasurer 

 Llovu p. Robertson, Associate Editor 



Sexcntli Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 South Dearborn St.. CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 808; 



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Vol. LII 



CHICAGO, DECEMBER 10, 1921 





No. 4 



Review and Outlook 



BOTA^•^, ,L 



flAKlJh;> 



General Market Conditions 



WITH THE DATE OF THIS ISSUE trade has launched sufficiently 

 far uito the atmosphere of the holidays with their attendant inven- 

 tory activities to have felt a distinctive check in demand. As natural 

 as this function has become over long years of custom, it seems to 

 have presented itself this year as a factor of potent threat. Manu- 

 facturers in various classifications of Imsiness have undergone such a 

 nerve-racking trial during the jiast year that they may be excused 

 for having become rather jumpy and fore showing a tendency to lie 

 scared off somewhat because of the current seasonal letuji. 



Offsetting such wrong impression is the fact that while December 

 starts off with somewhat reduced volume of business as comjiared to 

 November, the restriction is, as a matter of fact, considerably less in 

 some lines than normally develops. 



In lumber sales, for instance, the falling off as compared to business 

 actually transpiring two weeks ago has been less than is shown in 

 normal years. In those lines kindred to building the slackening of 

 demand has been even less notable, while in the furniture industries 

 llip falling oft' so far this month \\nnlil indicate lictween five and cij;lit 

 per cent. 



Manufacturers in all lines should carefully and studiously refrain 

 from gaining any wrong im]iression so far as developnu'uts iluriug the 

 current month are concerned, as wrong opinions might very easily be 

 ilr;nvn from the circumstances. 



During recent weeks the alignment of conditions has assunieil a so 

 much more definite direction that progno.stications can be made with 

 far greater safety than two or three nuinths ago. Hardwood Recokd's 

 confidence in business this fall and next year has never waivered, 

 though this column has repeatedly warned consistent forward progress 

 might easily be interrupted here and there by local recessions. The 

 position assumed by business during the fall months leads to the con- 

 clusion on the part of H.\rdwood Record that 1922 progress is now 

 definitely assured. 



Business particularly in so far as tliose lines manufacturing or 

 utilizing forest products are concerned has advanced beyond the |ioiut 

 where depleted supply was the governing factor. Supplies are still 

 depleted, but a healthy and soundly built improvement in denuind is 

 steadily making itself more manifest. The only factor which has been 

 entitled to serious consideration as a bad influence has lx?en more or 

 less uncertainty regarding the development of buying power, but as 

 events have shaped themselves over the past two or three months, it 



becomes more and more certain that deumnd will have attained suidi 

 projiortions in the early months of the new year as to have practically 

 eliminated this j)hase necessitating further serious calculations. 



Hardwood Record is distinctly of the opinion that the average 

 consumer's stock of hardwood lumber has not been built up to necessary 

 proportions even though considerable buying and shipment have devel- 

 oped during the fall months. Consumers' stocks have been so badly 

 depleted that under normal conditions it would have required at least 

 six months' time to have brought them fully back to a reasonable 

 Ijalanee. Suflicient lumber has not yet l.>een ordered or shipped to have 

 fully established necessary supplies on consumers' yards. 



Improved demand has naturally resulted in at least slightly checking 

 the general tendency to close down sawmill production, but it is doubt- 

 ful if more than 30 to 35 per cent of capacity is now operating. Having 

 actually seen the stock-lists and inventory records and mill stocks in 

 their physical sense at many producing points, the editor of Hardwood 

 Record is thoroughly convinced through the visible proof examined, 

 tliat statements of hardwood shortage at mill points are not exagger- 

 ated. It is by no means certain that next spring will be marked by 

 a runaway market, but that consideration is in no sense so remote as 

 to be removed from the necessity tor serious consideration. Approacli- 

 ing the question entirely from the standpoint of the consuming buyer 

 Hardwood Record 's counsel is that in order to avoid even a tendency 

 toward runaway conditions in the hardwood markets next year, the 

 buyers should formulate their buying plans in an intelligent open- 

 minded and unprejudiced manner not contenting themselves with 

 hearsay reports of lumber stocks, but actually making personal inves- 

 tigations. It is not safe to ignore the fact that building will definitely 

 show great further improvement as the building season opens up in 

 the spring. In the meantime the amount of work actually going under 

 construction is being steadily augmented, and such acceleration as will 

 materialize with the approach of next .year's building season means 

 just that much increased demand for available hardwood stocks what- 

 ever they may be, not only directly for construction, but in furniture 

 and the hundred-and-one accessories required with new housing. Thus, 

 even though it might be that present supplies are sufficient to meet 

 present demands, they cannot stand any great increase in demaiul 

 such as is certain to develop within the next few montlis. 



Obviously, it is poor policy to load up on the eve of inventories. 

 But it certainly is even poorer business for one to ignore all evidences 

 of short raw material supply merely because one is jdeased to believe 

 that such shortage is mythical and to refrain from cajeful personal 



