flSMwolRocoM 



Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1921 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin W. Meeker, Vice Pres. and Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary- Treasurer 

 Li.ovn P. Robertson, Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 South Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



^iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiniiii iiMiiiiiiinwiiiiiiiiimiiiiMiiMiniiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiirii niiiniiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 



Vol. LII 



CHICAGO. DECEMBER 25, 1921 



No. 5 



SX&SZ- 



Review and Outlook 



PmTANICaL 



General Market Conditions 



TN CONSIDERING MAEKET AFFAIRS for the next few weeks 

 1 the adverse decision in the famous hardwood case, as handed down 

 this week by the Supreme Court at Washington, wiU of necessity 

 come in for considerable discussion. It remains to be seen just 

 how trade will be affected by the final unalterable fact that open 

 price operation in the hardwood trade is a thing of the past. It 

 would seem from the record of the past three years^ that there is no 

 reason to fear a complete estoppage involving the sale and purchase 

 of hardwood lumber. Specific facts of history as contained in the 

 famous boom period, 1918 and 1919, show that the operation of supply 

 and demand is by all odds the most powerful influence behind any 

 sort of trade. So clearly did the scarcity of stocks and tremendous 

 demand over-power all other influences in price raising at that time 

 that it could not in reason be argued that the open price plan was 

 responsible. So, too, under the conditions existing during the past two 

 or three months. This period has noted a speedy increase in certain 

 items of hardwood which the notably scarce in quantity, such as, for 

 instance, red gum which has recorded an average raise of possibly 

 $35 to $40 in spite of the non-existence or, at least, the non-application 

 even remotely of the open influence. 



It is the belief of Hardwood Record that the basic influence of the 

 ])lan would have had its greatest benefit in its tendency to stabilize 

 but that with the plan now assuredly enjoined for all time both 

 the buyers &nd sellers of hardwood lumber must recognize the condition 

 and carry on as before. 



At this writing there is a notable let-up in buying due to the sea- 

 son's demands in other directions, in book-closing and inventories, 

 seasonal activities of a holiday nature and other factors of this sort. 

 Of course with the adverse decision coming in conjunction with this 

 slump, no matter how natural the latter may be, the double influence 

 might result in engendering a measure of pessimism which probably 

 wOl endure until the anticipated re-opening of purchases may appear 

 in February. 



In this, the closing market report of the year, Hardwood Record 

 sees no reason whatsoever to change its opinion of the past few months 

 relative to the future. Haedwood Record's prophecy of a genuine 

 opening up in trade has been supported of late by utterances of recog- 

 nized prognosticators who, while possibly a bit more conservative as 

 to the time at which such developments may be expected, are even more 

 definite in their statements that such normal return is surely and clearly 



on the way. Hardwood Record's belief is that within a month and 

 a half or two months after the first of the year there will be the be- 

 ginning of distinctly better developments and that the movement will 

 be inaugurated by excellent returns from the furniture markets in 

 January. 



Following this favorable activity the progress will be accelerated 

 by the very great expansion in building which is an assured fact 

 for spring. Then eventually with considerable of this building com- 

 pleted there will be further favorable reaction in furniture purchases, 

 and with this gradual reduction of unemployment will come greater 

 stability in farmers' markets causing them to be in better shape for 

 the purchase of equipment, and also will materially expand their 

 purchases of automobiles. 



In short, it is not in any sense illogical to specifically line up these 

 factors as they are likely to develop and the gross result will be an 

 improvement in business, starting as noted and with gradual acceler- 

 ation that will eventually bring about a much more healthy state of 

 affairs and largely remove the uncertainty prevalent during the past 

 year. 



As to how this will affect the purchase and sale of hardwood lumber 

 one need but to consider the demand end of the question as en- 

 gendered by improving conditions in lines dependent upon lumber 

 for their raw materials, and then weigh that against the continuance 

 of alarming restriction of input of hardwood logs and production of 

 hardwood lumber. The logging season in the South is now definitely 

 at an end and a careful analysis of northern log input leads to the 

 general conclusion that from thirty-five to forty per cent of normal 

 will encompass the total production. Naturally and obviously the 

 cut of hardwood lumber wiU be in direct ratio to the input of hard- 

 wood logs as there is no possibility of increasing this input at this 

 late season. The evidence of logging production for the year as at 

 present existing may reasonably and safely be taken as the true 

 measure of hardwood production between now and next spring. 



Hakdwood Record 's conviction embraces a gradual balancing up of 

 values as to grades and a general urge upwards that will in due time 

 place hardwood values on a basis that will insure at least a reasonable 

 profit in their production. Thus Hardwood Record would counsel that 

 any consuming factory which has business assured sufScient to justify 

 any reasonable purchases of hardwood lumber, may well look to cover 

 its needs just as soon after the first of the year as the real status of 

 business progress is established. 



