28 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



December 23. 1921 



Northern Wholesalers Are Optimistic 



The year 1922 nill bring an improvement in demand lor northern hard- 

 wood lumber, with no recessions and perhaps a steady increase in prices 

 until the new cut of lumber is ready for the marliet in the spring. But 

 while stocks will be below normal throughout this period there will be no 

 skyrocketing of prices. 



This summarized the careful review of present and future conditions 

 of the lumber market, which was indulged in by the members of the 

 Northern Hardwood Wholesalers' Association, gathered in quarterly ses- 

 sion at the Athletic Club In Milwaukee, December 16, under the leadership 

 of the president of the association. T. E. Jones of the Webster Lumber 

 Company, Minneapolis, Minn. In detail the opinions of conditions 

 expressed by the fifteen or twenty members present were at considerable 

 variance. But the majority of the views supported the gist of opinions 

 expressed at the outset. 



In considering the output of the logs and lumber some of those present 

 were Inclined to believe that the production would be larger than the 

 estimates of the manufacturers would indicate, and one member expressed 

 the opinion that it would be nearly normal. But those who differed with 

 this view supported their opinion with strong reasoning. Mr. Tillltson of 

 the Wolf River Lumber Company, Antlgo, Wis., said he did not believe 

 the cut of logs in the northern territory would exceed 50 per cent of 

 normal. C. P. Crosby of the C. P. Crosby Lumber Company, Rhinelander, 

 Wis., believed that the output would be very low and cited in support of 

 this view the unemployment situation around Rhinelander. A great many 

 of the woods workers are looking for Jobs and can not find them, he said. 

 Unemployment is really a serious condition. And, too, there Is no evidence 

 of the employment of the large number of farm hands who generally find 

 work in the northern woods during the winter months. As a rule the 

 travelers in the Lake States may see many of these boys from the farms 

 going to and from the camps at this season of the year, but they are not 

 now to be seen. Harry E. Christiansen of the General Lumber Company, 

 Milwaukee, reminded those meml)ers who looked for a large cut, of the all- 

 Important attitude of the bankers of the territory. The position of the 

 bankers imposes a strong barrier against a large output. These gentle- 

 men, he said, are ultra-conservative. They will not make loans to lumber- 

 men who have large inventories of logs or lumber, and they are not going 

 to finance cutting operations that threaten to load a borrower up with 

 stock. 



Conservative Optimism Rules 



The attitude of conservative optimism, as expressed l>y H. C. Humphrey 

 of the G. W. Jones Lumber Company, Appleton, Wis., pretty effectively 

 described the viewpoint of the majority of those present. It was pointed 

 out that 1922 is going to be a great year for walnut and mahogany in the 

 furniture industry, but it was also admitted that the requirements of the 

 sash and iloor and flooring makers, heavy now and likely to be much 

 heavier during 1922. will mean the consumption of larger quantities of 

 gum. birch and oak. Mr. Humphrey called attention to the radical advance 

 In the prices of southern hardwood lumber, especially for red gum, which 

 had had a most favorable influence on birch. The position of flooring 

 lumber is especially strong, he said. And one very important factor to 

 consider Is that "the percentage of damn fools" has decreased considerably. 

 That is, those who will sell their lumber at less than cost prices are now 

 very few. Instead of many, as was true a few months ago. 



President Jones told the members that be believed they should strive 

 to build up the volume of their sales and pay more attention to this than 

 to an effort to obtain radical profits through radical prices. While con- 

 servative, he was optimistic. But he urged a reasonableness and dis- 

 countenanced a policy of holding stock with a hope of "making a kUling." 



In the discussion of conditions in the North the situation as to the com- 

 petitive woods of the South was, of course, canvassed. Some of the mem- 

 bers, and chief among these President Jones, expressed a belief In the 

 possibility of a pretty substantial production of southern lumber, under 



the stimulus of the present favorable prices. But others, and among these 

 some who had recently been South, or were in particularly close touch with 

 the situation, insisted that the output in the South is going to be very 

 low this season. There is no reason to expect, these men said, that the 

 South can produce large quantities of lumber in the next few months. 

 Weatber conditions are not likely to be favorable to this. The normal 

 rains in the southern territory will prevent extension operations from 

 now on until Spring. Besides this very little logging is being done except 

 on tracts of timber owned by mills. Those who log for sale to, the mills 

 are doing virtually nothing. Conditions prevailing at the time they should 

 have organized crews discouraged this and therefore they did not put 

 men and teams into the woods. Now it is too late to do this, no matter 

 how favorat>le a turn the market might take. This opinion was voiced 

 in some detail by Fred Peschau of the Payson Smith Lumber Company. 

 Chicago, and by A. 11. Ruth of the G. W. Jones Lumber Company, Chicago. 

 Mr. Ruth was one of those who believed that prices will continue strong 

 for the next few months, but that there will be no runaway market. 

 Southern stocks are short, he said. The flooring people are taking a great 

 deal of No. 2 common oak, and a great deal of gum is being moved. The 

 demand for red gum Is strong and has helped to strengthen the position 

 of birch. The strength of these two woods will continue and perhaps 

 increase. FAS quartered oak Is up $20 or more on the thousand, and 

 while common red oak is a little easier, the demand and price of poplar 

 have increased. He did not look for the furniture people to buy very 

 much lumber from now on until after the first of the year. 



Among Those Present 



Among others who participated in the discussion were the following: 

 Robert Duncan, Duncan Lumber Company, Minneapolis, Minn. ; William 

 Kelley, Kellcy-O'Mella Lumber Company, Milwaukee, Wis. ; John B. 

 Andrews and II. F. Early, Andrews-Early Lumber Company, Wausau. 

 Wis. ; F. K. Bissell, Bissell Lumber Company, Marshfleld, Wis. ; W. H. 

 Abbott, Vangsness Lumber Company, Chicago ; W. W. Brown, Northern 

 Hardwood Sales Company. Chicago ; L. H. Wheeler, Wheeler-Timlin Lum- 

 ber Company, Wausau ; Tom Lee. H. F. Below Lumber Company, Marinette, 

 Wis. ; Robert Blackburn, Blackburn Lumber Company, Milwaukee : Floyd 

 W. Long and C. P. Mulligan, Stevens-Jarvis Lumber Company, Milwaukee, 

 Wis. ; Mr. Masten, Brandt & Masten Lumber Company, Chicago ; J. J. 

 Fitzpatrick, Fltzpatrlck Lumber Company, Madison, Wis. 



The principal address of the meeting was made by L. E. Fuller, editor 

 of the Luml)cr & Veneer Consumer, Chicago. Mr. Fuller spoke on the 

 proposed American Valuation Plan, and while he was unable to declare 

 himself an advocate for or against the plan, cited several situations in 

 which it might be valuable In raising up a tariff wall to protect our Indus- 

 tries from the ruinous competition of European countries, especially Ger- 

 many. He showed that such competition must be viewed with serious 

 concern and expressed the view that we should not permit our late enemy 

 to transfer the disasters of the war to our American Industries. 



At the suggestion of President Jones arrangements were made for the 

 annual meeting, which will take place in Milwaukee the third Tuesday In 

 February. The members decided to hold their annual meeting in the 

 afternoon in order to conclude It with an annual dinner and entertainment 

 in the evening. Those present evidenced considerable enthusiasm for the 

 evening entertainment and In order to insure its success President Jones 

 named an entertainment committee, with Harry E. Christiansen as chair- 

 man and Wm. H. Kelley and Robert Blackburn as members. The president 

 will serve as an advisory member. 



Three Arms were admitted to membership. They are : Maffett-Graef 

 Lumber Company, Appleton, Wis. ; Brandt & Masten Lumber Company, 

 Chicago ; Adams-Tbom Lumlrer Company, Wausau, Wis. 



An interesting report on production conditions in the north was made 

 by J. H. Hayden, secretary of the club. 



Inter-Association Arbitration Idea Advances 



The Inter-Association Arbitration Committee, consisting of repre- 

 sentatives of various lumber associations, and of which Dwight 

 Hinckley of the Dwight Hinckley Lumber Co., Cincinnati, Ohio, is 

 chairman, held a meeting at the Congress Hotel, in Chicago, on 

 December 13. About seventeen associations were represented. 



In opening the meeting Chairman Hinckley, who is also chairman 

 of the Standing Committee on Ethics and Arbitration of the Amer- 



ican Wholesale Lumber Association, made a statement, pertaining 

 to the origin of this committee, its previous activities and outlining 

 the purpose of the meeting. 



Fred Larkins, assistant secretary of the American Wholesale 

 Lumber Association, as chairman of the special committee referred 

 by Mr. Hinckley, presented for consideration the complete outline 

 (ContinunI oh. page 31) 



