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HARDWOOD RECORD 



33 



November, 1921, Building Statistics Show Ninety-eight Per Cent 

 Gain Over November, 1920 



Xovembcr building sTatisti«'s from 204 cities considered in tlie liglit of 

 present basic conditions unqualifiedly present the most optimistic case for 

 construction offered by any November since the memorable November 

 which gave the world an armistice. 



These statistics as reported to The American Contractor show a ninety- 

 ' ight per cent gain over the corresponding month of 1920, which, in turn, 

 showed a fifty per cent loss from the eleventh month of 1919. This puts 

 1921 figures practically on a par with 1919 and double those of 1920. 



False Prosperity in 1919 



To get the true meaning of what this means, we must consider the 

 underlying conditions of the three years. In November, 1919, we were 

 afloat on an artilicially made sea of prosperity. There was constant 

 play for higher and higher wages by building trades which were not strong 

 enough in numbers to fill the jobs, and consequently the condition was 

 one of bidding for man power which constantly diminished in productive 

 efficiency. The projects undertalien were largely for industrial purposes, 

 and all industry was in the position of the small boy at the feast — eyes 

 were bigger than stomachs. At the very time the prosperity was at its 

 height there was universal warning of its artificial and insecure basis. 

 Therefore, a measure of building permits in November of that year did 

 not mean much in light of the fact that all industry was riding to its fall. 

 Specifically, the value of the permits themselves was on the inflated basis 

 of the times. A dollar in November. 1919. did not go far. 



November, 1920, Showed Reverse Motion 



How different was the situation in 1920's eleventh month. Part of the 

 deflation of general business had been weathered. The price of building 

 materials had shrunk and shrunk from its peak level. Labor was on the 

 eve of shrinking and was picking up in etBciency in direct ratio to the 

 situation which was fast becoming more men than jobs. The situation 

 was a reversal of the 1919 situation. But in November, 1920, the mass 

 of building permits had shrunk also until the net result from 203 cities 

 reported to The American Contractor was $74,09.8,500, as against $151,- 

 070^08 from the identical cities in 1919. 



Which November bore the most promise — the November with the large 

 volume of permits, or the November with the small volume of permits? 

 Agreeing that November promises are in the nature of things promises 

 for the ensuing year, we do not need to speculate which year's eleventh 

 month held the most promise, for the results of the succeeding year in 

 each case stand on record. The records show that November, 1920, with 

 its small volume of permits held the most promise. The reason why 

 has been gone into and the evidence is written in the constantly picking 

 up volume throughout 1921. 



Prospects for 1922 Are What? 



Now we stand at the eleventh month of this year, and we want to know 

 the promise for 1922. 



The prospects for 1922 are basically better than they were in either 

 1919 or 1920. We have no discernible era of erratic inflation ahead. 

 That period with its inevitable period of contract breaking in all business 

 lines and contract deferring and permit shelving in the building industry 

 has been weathered. We have been building up throughout 1921 on a 

 sound basis. There has been no spectacular boom, but much building 

 activity has been going on as statistics and actual observance show to 

 anyone. There is no good reason for much contrast deferring and for 

 permit shelving while business is on its present basis, and the very favor- 

 able volume of permits speaks for itself. 



The November total from 204 cities is $148,593,588. 



Figures for the last three years as of the month of November are as 

 follows : 



Number Number 

 Cities Permits Valuation 



November, 1919 203 31,754 $151,070.60,8 



November, 1920 203 28,343 74,098,500 



November. 1920 204 28.647 74.901.409 



November, 1921 204 42,826 148.593.588 



Prices Up or Down 



Of much significance in the above tabulation is the fact that whereas 

 the valuation of 1921 permits is very slightly under that of 1919. the 

 number is relatively much greater. This is readily accounted for by the 

 fact that so big a per cent of 1921 construction is of residential nature. 

 Contracts awarded during the month of November north of the Ohio and 

 east of the Missouri rivers show that 47 per cent of the total volume of 

 awards was for this class. Now is there any logical reason for the volume 

 of residential construction to drop off next year? The demand is still 

 potent, being merely scratched and with rental returns not vitiated by new 

 building. If prices of materials should drop radically everyone agrees that 

 the speculative builder would swamp the available power of contractors, 

 because there would be such a rush. But such a boom condition would 

 not mean as much real impetus to the building industry as a more steady 

 volume of construction. If material prices shade upward in the spring, 

 as some authorities maintain they will, then, as in every case of rising 

 prices, more buying will be done and an appreciable impetus given to all 

 industry. No matter which way the balance swings, it looks propitious 

 for a steady volume next year, which may well out-total the aggregate 

 volume for this year, which, as we all remember, started lean. 



Clubs and Associations 



Louisville Indorses Southerners 



The Louisville Hardwood Club recently indorsed T. M. Henderson, Nash- 

 ville, and Charles E. Cotterill, of Atlanta, for the Interstate Commerce 

 Commission, in event President Harding does not re-appoint two members 

 whose terms expire on December 31, the local hardwood men hoping to 

 get some Southern men on the commission if possible. 



St. Louis Exchange In Good Condition 

 W. W. Ding of Garetson-Creason Lumber Company, St. Louis, who Is 



chairman of the membership committee of the Lumbermen's Exchange, says 



the membership of the Exchange has shown a healthy growth this year, all 



things considered. 



O. A. Pier, secretary of the Exchange, said the Exchange closes the year 



in first class shape in every way, financially and otherwise. The number 



of members at the present time is about eighty. 



Evansville Manufacturers Nominate Woodworkers 



The Evansville Manufacturers' Association will elect directors on Jan- 

 uary 11, and the following have been nominated for the directorate : 

 Daniel Wertz, of the Maley & Wertz Lumber Company : Alvin V. Burch, 

 of the Blount Plow Company ; Samuel G. Clifford, of McFerson & Foster, 

 box manufacturers : J, J. Morris, of the Bucyrus Steam Shovel Company ; 

 Lynn McCurdy, of the Hercules Buggj' Company : B. J. Noelting. of the 

 Faultless Caster Company : George E. Reichmann, of the Evansville Furni- 

 ture Company ; Harry H. Schu, of the Crescent Furniture Company : Neal 

 Sauer, of the Cottage Building Company : Arthur Trimble, of the Vulcan 

 Plow Company ; B. F. VonBehren. of the VonBehren Manufacturing Com- 

 pany ; George O. Worland, of the Evansville Veneer Company, and others. 



The plant of the Blount Plow Company of this city, after being shut 

 down for a number of months, has resumed operations with a good-sized 

 force and it is expected the plant will be operated steadily from this time 

 on. Plow manufacturers of this city are taking a more optimistic view 

 of the trade situation than they did a few months ago and it is believed 

 that 1922 will bring in a larger volume of business than this year. 



Southern Hardwood Traffic Announcements 



The following announcements relative to lumber traffic matters are 

 made by the Southern Hardwood Traffic Association : 



In addition to the general fight for lower rates on hardwood lumber now 

 pending before the Interstate Commerce Commission, the association is 

 "making progress with a complete individual readjustment of hardwood 

 rates from southwestern territory to upper Ohio river crossings." The 

 Missouri Pacific system, it points out, has already announced substantial 

 reductions, and it expresses the belief that it will be able, in a short time, 

 to announce that other lines have followed suit. 



The New Orleans offices of the association have secured a reduction 

 of 8 cents per hundred pounds, from 42 to 34 cents, on lumber, cooperage 

 stock, etc., moving from points on the Kansas City Southern between 

 Siloam Springs, -^rk., and Brushy, Okla., to New Orleans, effective Dec. 

 31, 1921. 



The association is advised that the following lumber articles do not 

 have to be marked, when exported from the United States to Canada, to 

 show country of origin : Cedar posts, club turned spokes, rough lumber, 

 dressed lumber, telephone and telegraph poles, railway ties, flooring, 

 veneers, staves, heading and hoops. 



It points out, however, that shooks viunt be so marked as to show the 

 country of origin when exported to Canada. 

 He is survived by his wife, two sons and four daughters, 



Knoxville Club Elects Officers 



At the regular meeting of the Lumbermen's Club of Knoxville on the 

 second of December the following officers were elected for the year 1922, 

 to take office Friday, December 6 : 



Elected : Succeeds : 



President — Harry C. Kopcke, J. M. Logan. 



Vice-President — W. M. Van llarlingen. L. H. Shaffer. 



Secretary — Malcolm Miller. U. S. Andes. 



Treasurer — J. W. Andes, F. R. Stair. 



Meetings of the club are held on the first and third Fridays of each 

 month at noon at the Business Men's Club. Lunch is served, followed by 

 a business meeting and open discussion. 



Convention Dates of A. W. L. A. Are Set 



The directors of the .\merican Wholesale Lumber .Association, Chicago, 

 have decided on Thursday and Friday, March 9 and 10, 1922, as the dates 

 for holding their second annual convention. The sessions will be held in 

 the gold room of the Congress Hotel in Chicago. 



The directors and several committees will hold conferences in the hotel 

 on Wednesday, the 8th, and the new board of directors will probably 

 remain over for an organization meeting on the morning of Saturday, 

 March 11. 



Plans are already under way for several special features which bid fair 

 to make the convention one of extreme value to those in attendance. 



