i.c'pyn'(jht. The liAHDwrx)!! Companv. igrJ 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin \V. Meeker, Vice Pres. and Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary-Treasurer 



T.i.ovi) P. RoiiERTSON. Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 South Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



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Vol. LII 



CHICAGO, JANUARY 25, 1922 



"■■I, .tS,^ 



No. 7 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



WITH THE DATE of tliis issue the fiiniitur.' niiukets liuve alioiit 

 been concluded, tlins terminating; one of tlie most valued 

 indications of business in an important consuming industry. In 

 retrospect the markets can be said to have developed quite satis- 

 factorily. The inactivity of those disturbing influences which for 

 the past two or three markets have rendered the results distinctly 

 uncertain was noticeable. 



An even procedure has characterized the business developing at 

 all of the important shows. Orders have ben widely placed, and 

 purchases represent practically all sections of the country, with the 

 single exception of the agricultural regions. Manufacturers' prices 

 showed a reasonable level at the beginning, which plane was 

 steadfastly maintained throughout. A'arious qualities and patterns 

 of furniture experienced almost parallel movement. 



Insofar as these features are concerned, and without respect to 

 actual volume of business, the markets demonstrated an encourag- 

 ing condition throughout the couutry, and in their significance, 

 entirely aside from the actual movement of furniture, they have 

 given reason for substantial expectations for business in general. 



Insofar as the markets indicate the possibilities of the furniture 

 business and concurrent movement of hardwood lumber, the}- have 

 been quite satisfactory, sales developing in good volume, with every 

 desiralde reason to expect substantial road business. The .situa- 

 tion at this market is not parallel to that of recent markets, where 

 the promise of road business following the shows was never realized. 

 In recent instances buyers have come to the markets in a belligerent 

 frame of mind, and with the belief that the manufacturers were 

 endeavoring to exact too high a figure for their product. Thus their 

 indications of possible road orders were based on their belief that 

 manufacturers might indulge in price slashing competition when 

 the representatives went out after business. But by the time buyers 

 had been interviewed by a few representative traveling men, their 

 ideas of values were still furtlier upset, with the result that they 

 never did feel quite justified in jilacing orders under the more or 

 less uncertain conditions that governed their own businesses. 



This year siudi influences are absent, as prices have held notably 

 firm. Buyers appreciated this fact on attending the sales, and 

 there was no noticealde slashing during the markets. As a result 

 their ideas of values on their return will not likely be upset by 

 cut-throat competition for road business. Thus it can be reason- 

 ably expected that a fair percentage of the promise of good road 

 business will be realized. 



Stress is given to the furniture markets, primarily because it is 



the most deeply significant factor on the consuming horizon, and 

 secondly, because it is a good general indication of possibilities in 

 business. Furniture is something which represents a conservative 

 purchase by the average citizen. It is not an absolute necessity in 

 many cases nor a luxury except in unusual cases. In other words, 

 it can fairly be .judged to typify the buying tendency of the public, 

 and a.s it is a certainty that retailers' purchases are directly in line 

 with their own sales, the satisfactory outcome of the markets does 

 more than indicate merely a fairly good future for the furniture 

 business. It presages a healthy development of business in general 

 during 1922. 



While we are apparently in the midst of winter, it is but a few 

 weeks before spring will be with us. A large increase in building 

 is almost postively assured. This in itself will greatly help lumber 

 markets and in addition will continue as an influence in the matter 

 of furniture purchases. 



Another industry which is making a strong bid for revival is 

 automobile manufacture. The slack times in the agricultural dis- 

 tricts will of necessary continue as a retarding influence in this 

 line, as in the agricultur.al implement field, but offsetting this is a 

 great increase in the call for closed cars, which is resulting in 

 materially augmenting the call for hardwood lundier in automobile 

 construction. 



Looking at the other end of the conibination we find that pro- 

 duction can not by any chance materially increase over present 

 basis. The first of January saw practical cessation of those log- 

 ging operations which are directly affected by weather. A certain 

 measure will, of course, carry on, as provision has been made to 

 do so, and further there is always a certain percentage of operations 

 which are not prescribed by natural causes. With the evidence 

 before it, Hardwood Recoud sees no reason for changing its esti- 

 mate of 30 to 3-5 per cent of normal production for the winter 

 months, and this can not be materially increased until spring. 



Haudwood Rkcokd's estimates of this year's business are based 

 not on the belief that there will be a rapid opening up, but rather 

 on a legitimate expectation of sane but steady .and consistent 

 increase. Resultiiig increases in shipments will within the next 

 two or three months have made sufficient inroads into available 

 stocks as to have, at least, begun to overcome the unhealthy differ- 

 ential between the upper and the lower grades. This read.justmeut 

 will, in our opinion, be based on an upward swing of the lower 

 grades, followed jiossibly later as manufactured stocks come in, by 

 slight downward tendency in the upper grades, stopping at a mean 

 v.aluc a bit above the present average. 



Production eo<t-^ ar^' in ijianv instanr-es down t() former le\-eN. but 



