fliMwoM Recol 



Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1922 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin W. Meeker, Vice Pres. and Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary-Treasurer 

 Lloyd P. Robertson, Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 South Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



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Vol. LII 



CHICAGO, FEBRUARY 25, 1922 



No. 9 



Review and Outlook 





General Market Conditions 



THE PAST FEW WEEKS have contributed in different ways to 

 the conditions of the hardwood industry. It is an undeniable fact 

 that a certain measure of softening in prices has developed, though 

 tins situation still is resulting from the individual rather than from 

 the general tendency. To offset such influence there has been noted 

 a consistent though very gradual improvement in inquiries and orders. 



The situation might in a way be likened to the tides of the sea. 

 As the tide goes down, gradually lowering the level in the estuaries 

 along the coast line, tlie current on the curface of the water will con- 

 tinue to flow outwards for some time after the lowest ebb has ap- 

 parently been reached. At the same time the tendency of the tide 

 to flow back towards the flood will cause an even stronger current 

 beneath the surface going back again into the estuaries. 



The falling tide of prices might thus be likened to surface current 

 which flows out even while the gradually rising tide of demand is 

 establishing an undercurrent flowing back in. 



The most disappointing feature is that this current of improvement 

 has not developed as rapidly as many people had expected. There- 

 fore, as remarked in previous issues in this column, an unwarranted 

 measure of discouragement developed. It is fortunate, though, that 

 sufficient evidence has accumulated in support of favorable outlook 

 to have begun rather to overcome this discouragement in a small 

 measure. During the past ten days conservation, more marked now 

 than before, has been bolstered up on the side of optimism so that 

 the average hardwood man will be apt today to express himself in 

 more favorable terms than two or three weeks ago. 



The situation presents a distinctly anomalous aspect. A survey 

 of the trade at large leads to the certain conclusion that business 

 is distinctly slack, yet if one delves into the personal experiences of 

 individual firms, it is common to find that each man 's orders are 

 assuming fairly respectable proportions. One would almost be led 

 to the conclusion that the commonly expressed lack of faith is due 

 in a measure to the holdover from recent months of extreme hardship 

 and is a matter of habit against which a formidable array of orders 

 must be presented as a counteracting motive. 



Imagination is a powerful function of the human mind and ju.st as 

 easily can be created from past experience as from current hap- 

 penings. Thus in spite of practical evidence of tangible orders, the 

 lumberman is apt to imagine a worse situation than really exists be- 

 cause he has been in the habit during recent months of undergoing 

 harrowing experiences. 



Still the fact remams that demand hasn't advanced to the point 

 which many folks thought it might have reached by now, thus causing 

 continued tendency to hold back and creating a continuance of conser- 

 vatism not ordinarly so manifest in the hardwood lumber industry. 

 To this extent, at least, the lagging improvement has been for the best. 

 Improvement, though, there is. It has been sufficient to have covered 

 pretty much of the hardwood trade not in an impressive way but 

 suflSciently to have somewhat altered each man's viewpoint, though 

 still not sufficient to have affected the general price level. 



It is Hardwood Record's theory that this gradual advancing 

 volume of business will continue, possibly at slightly accelerated rate 

 until it has overcome the pressure of necessity for sale, thus in turn 

 showing favorable reaction on valuations. 



The stock situation will likely not be so bad as it was expected in 

 the fall it might be. It was assumed then that this year would be 

 as other years and that logging would have practically ceased around 

 the middle of December. It was possible, however, for many opera- 

 tors who otherwise would have been down before the first of the year, 

 to continue along right through January, though at present practically 

 all those ordinarily affected by weather conditions have now been 

 driven out of the woods. Nevertheless many mills did experience 

 four to six weeks of additional logging weather, which fact materially 

 increased the stock on hand. Hardwood Record would surmise that 

 where in the fall it appeared that thirty to forty per cent stock 

 would be the limit, it now seems likely that this proportion will be 

 nearer sixty per cent of normal, of course, showing in some cases 

 and in some items full or even super-normal. 



The main effect which Hardwood Record anticipates is possible 

 easing in a few months in proportionate strength of firsts and 

 seconds as comjiared to the other grades. Manufacturing develop- 

 ments will probably have assisted in bearing out Hardwood Record's 

 predictions of the past few months that the ultimate level will have 

 recorded a tendency of the upper and the lower grades to meet, with 

 advancement of the latter and slight recession of the former. 



This full result will probably not have been accomplished by the 

 end of the current year as the scales of supply and demand will of 

 necessity have to go through a certain measure of "see sawing" be- 

 fore they can establish a true balance of proportion. However, the 

 experiences of this year will without question contribute greatly 

 towards readjustment of gradual valuation on a basis that will help 

 in the lower grades and slightly ease off the upper grades. 



For the immediate future, though, Hardwood Record believes that 

 the upper grades, notably first and seconds, are still exceptionally 

 strong property. 



