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Copyright, Th» Habdwooo Compani, iai7 



Publlihed in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOlh and 23th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor' 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 



537 So. Dearborn Street. CHICAGO 



Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XLIV 



CHICAGO. DECEMBER 25. 1917 



No. 5 



^ ro5g<5m^<sa^;;i;:)tiiJi( WJiii>:ti;&!t^^ 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



THE LKAF IS ABOUT TO BE TURNED. What will ho writtc-ii 

 on thp blank ]>nge to follow is of conecrn to all of lis, but 

 cannot bo foreseen by any of us. We know what the past has been. 

 We know what the ilevelopment is today, and we know about what 

 would ha|)pen should the present course hold for another year. 



The next twelve months hold promise of one of two things: 

 Either that the present attrition will continue, necessitating our 

 applying ourselves more ami inorc closely to the one problem of 

 war dovelopment, or that through some means, peace throughout 

 the world will come in place of world-wide conflict. Of the two, 

 the first j)rospect offers less uncertainty as to the jiosition of 

 industry than does that of sudden peace. 



To as closely as ])ossible discern the future's effect on business, 

 using the term as involving the creation of all commodities and 

 materials and their sale and transi)ortation, it is necessary to turn 

 to the past, for there lies the one lesson for guidance. 



There is no question that the ])ast few months has seen a more 

 general realization of the i'act that we are in a man-sized war 

 than has any [K'riod .since we entered the conflict. The sending 

 of men to the training camps and across the water revealed to 

 the nation a promise of sterner developments in the near future. 

 The nation's participation had, before this realization becaiiu' 

 country-wide, been a thing rather apart from everyday life, ;i 

 movement which the people for the most part watched more as 

 an audience than as performers. But it is one big stage now — -we 

 are all jierformers and each has his part in the caste. The dress 

 rehi'arsals are over and we have gotten down to the grim business 

 iif |iutting the thing over and doing a good job of it. 



National particii)ation in the prosecutimi of the wjir is having 

 two effects. The first effect is positive and direct and emanates 

 from the guiding heads at Washington. It concerns the bearing 

 which specific war needs have u])on industries. 



The .second is psychological iind is felt through tlu' inlluence 

 of war thought n|K)ii the juipulation as a whole. It JifTects tlie 

 business situation not through direct action or mandate, but by 

 changing the temper of our population elTecting a gradual cooling 

 off of our arder for frivolity and e.xtravagance and a resolve to 

 provide for uncertainties of the future by saving during the present. 



The greatest effort of the first influence has come through grad- 

 ually increased restriction (in shipment of comm'ercial lines, and 

 through the turning of labor and manufacturing resources into war 

 work. On the other hand, it cannot be said that the effect of the 

 public attitude towards war conditions has yet been ovcrmarked. 

 Nevertheless it has been sufficient to cause some uneasiness in nor- 



mal cummercijil channels. Such reaction, though as might be detri- 

 mental to business and as coining through the jiuhlic initiative has 

 in the main been caused by high prices of materials and labor 

 which have restricted investment and development, and through 

 high prices of necessities which have quite radically curtailed the 

 jiurchase of those things not strictly necessary. 



But whatever might be the economist's explanation, the fact 

 remains that during the latter mouths of 1917 the trades upon which 

 lumbermen have counted for the movement of most of their prod- 

 uct, have shown less and less tendency to active buying. On the 

 other hand, this has been balanced by the sensational expansion 

 in the needs for war prosecution, and it has been auUioritatively 

 stated that when war production is in full swing it will require 

 (considering what goes directly into war appliances as well as the 

 thousands and thousands of accessories) 50 to 60 per cent of the 

 jnoducing capacity of the sawmills. As under normal conditions 

 the full production has been taken care of through regular com- 

 mercial (uitlets, the pros])ect is directly encouraging. 



The building bu.siuess was one of the first and most seriously 

 hit of all lines. Building has been restricted to the point where 

 the need for new construction for residences and industrial pur- 

 ])oses demands resumption of operation. The building restriction 

 has without doubt reached its lowest ebb, and yet it has as a 

 wliole fallen off considerably less than one-half. There is no reason 

 for thinking that any normal industry will be curtjiiled to a greater 

 extent than this; that is, cousiileriiig normal industries as a whole. 

 Some will be curtailed to the vanishing point, but the average cur- 

 tailment will undoubtedly not show more than a .50 or 40 per cent 

 restriction at the extreme. This means that the lowest ebb of 

 wartime production of commercial commodities will probably 

 be not less than 50 per cent of normal production, and (iO to ".'> 

 per cent might be nearer the mark. Then, jilacing war production 

 on toj) of this will mean that between the two influences the pro- 

 duction of hardwood lumber will be balanced by more than an 

 ailequate market. This, of course, is merely :i theoretical glimpse 

 <if what may possibly develop. In the meantime, the big problem 

 is to readjust production so that it may fit in properly, providing 

 its quota of material for normal lines and at the same time being 

 in position to produce with the utmost expedition and efficiency 

 for war purposes. 



The one thing absolutely certain is that the average selling price 

 for lumber will in the future more fairly represent the worth of 

 material than ever in the past. There continue to be radical and 

 in many cases ridiculous fluctuations and sjircads. but mounting 

 costs are gradually forcing a close analysis of proiluction figures. 

 (,'onsidering that mills as a whole necessarily operate on apjiroxi- 



