TPFP!OTmW'17r7]5^5^CJJmm5JS^^ 



JL 



k ]|5 



Loijyrlght. Th« Habdwood Coupam, 1»17 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOlh and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker. Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor' 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 



537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 



Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-808S 



C 



Vol. XLIV 



CHICAGO, JANUARY 10, 1918 



No. 6 



^ ^^>^:/k/,v:/5ii>Ka:!m*ti;t^to;\^vaok:*s>viv:>^^^ 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



WITH THE NEW YEAR'S BETUBN OF NORMAL BUYING 

 still sluggish, conditions reveal a more pronouncedly war mar- 

 ket. The trade is effecting a continually closer organization in 

 behalf of the government's effort to supply itself adequately with 

 forest products and the result is a growing percentage of lumber 

 production shipped for war work. There are still conflicting reports 

 of the probable fate of the so-called "non-essential" industries, but 

 the tendency of the government seems to be to gradually absorb 

 the non-essential lines in the work directly in line with war prep- 

 arations. Thus there is no disturbance in manufacture or raw 

 material requirements. 



Of course in many cases there might be a switching about in 

 lumber needs, as most items of war equipment would call for entirely 

 different materials than those going into the manufacture of com- 

 mercial lines which factories so converted have been turning out. 

 This government policy is gratifying and heartening, and if kept 

 np and expanded with sufficient rapidity to meet the government's 

 own requirements should eliminate the menace of enforced curtail- 

 ment of non-essential manufacturing capacity. 



There may be room for concern though in a comparison of figures 

 which show a contemplated expenditure of some nineteen billions 

 of dollars for the year, whereas the total value of manufactured 

 products in this country last year ran only into the twenty billions. 

 If the government really spends that much money in one year it 

 will require manufacturing facilities enough to offset it. With 

 manufacturing facilities represented at twenty-four billion dollars' 

 production, and with the government immediately requiring nine- 

 teen billion dollars of production, the question is where will the 

 producing capacity come from except by cutting out industries that 

 are not directly in line with the war work? Whether or not the 

 process of gradual absorption will prove equal to the occasion 

 remains to be seen. 



Beflection of conditions having to do immediately with the hard- 

 wood market shows the outstanding features to be increased in 

 strength in almost all items in thick stock, with box and crating 

 material in the lead. The box people are ready buyers of almost 

 any material which will meet their needs, whereas manufacturers 

 of war specialties are taking on immense quantities of the cuts 

 which their specifications demand. At the same time the normal 

 output is being taken up in fair shape in commercial and other 

 channels, and the tone of the whole market is exceptionally strong, 

 with prices continuing their forward trend, or at least, holding a 

 very firm level. Of course, it is obvious that the present situation 



in commercial buying figures would not stand firm were the influence 

 of large volume of shipments of war work not so direct a factor. 



Reports are rather discouraging from the South as covering 

 future mill production, as growing difficulty in getting in logs has 

 already caused the shutting down of a number of operations. It is 

 confidently expected though that with government control of ship- 

 ping there will be a more uniform distribution of cars, which will 

 effect a considerable improvement in this situation. 



In the North, where the main dependence is upon good sledding 

 roads, the outlook is favorable so far as log input is concerned, the 

 probability being that there will be a considerably larger produc- 

 tion than had been anticipated. With the prospect of all of this 

 lumber moving out promptly and at good prices northern manu- 

 facturers are in a cheerful mood. 



The many mid-winter meetings in the hardwood trade, which will 

 practically cover the entire manufacturing industry, will be of 

 momentous importance this year, as they will tend not only to 

 reveal the true conditions of stocks, sales and prospects, but will 

 help to better shape policies to meet rapidly changing conditions. 

 With these meetings coming at a time when there is considerable 

 uncertainty as to values, and with the probability of values becom- 

 ing important features of the discussions, the outlook is that the 

 tendency of trade will be towards greater strength rather than 



towards disorganization. 



t 



An Eye Opener 



IT TOOK WAB TO OPEN THE EYES of the government to the 

 fact that trade associations are of some account after all. Dur- 

 ing the past few years, and until recently, government officials 

 considered it their duty to watch associations as if they were bands 

 of burglars planning robberies. Lumber associations, in particular, 

 had occasion to know with what suspicion the government regarded 

 them. Their business meetings were considered as little less than 

 conspiracies to rob the public; and the threat of prosecution was 

 perpetually hanging over such bodies. Expensive and extensive 

 investigations were carried out, particularly in the lumber industry, 

 in a search for proof that such associations were trying to fix prices 

 and control trade. It is an old and familiar story. 



The war cleared the air very quickly. The government suddenly 

 found itself in need of enormous supplies, and it did not take long 

 to find out that the supplies must be procured by dealing with 

 associations, rather than with individuals and single companies. 

 It was discovered that the associations which had been so long 

 under suspicion were pretty good things after all. They alone were 

 able to give the help that was sorely needed. The charge that sncli 



