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Copjrigbt, TBI Hasowooo Coufani, 1B17 



PuLliihed in the Interest of the ARierlcan Hardwood Foresli, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOlh and 23th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor' 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 



537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 



Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8089 



Vol. XLIV CHICAGO, FEBRUARY 25, 1918 No. 9 



r4Q=¥ 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



THESE IS A MEAN POINT bctwooii war business ami commer- 

 cial business that is being approached, and the hardwood trade 

 in the process of nearing that point brings out many conflicting and 

 lonfusing indications which render it extremely hard for anyone 

 to come to a clean-cut analysis of the market situation. When that 

 point of balance has arrived it will be possible to at least approxi- 

 mately determine the probable course of events for the duration 

 of war. Fortunately, the balance between supply and demand is 

 still the market barometer. Thus, by analyzing such evidence of 

 the condition of each it is possible to come to a pretty fair under- 

 standing of what the true outlook is. 



So far as hardwoods are concerned, supply continues to be inade- 

 quate. It must be understood, of course, that in speaking of sup- 

 ply the entire stock of hardwoods and not the stock in an)' one 

 wood is in mind. If other things had not influenced supply, the 

 physical limitations imposed upon manufacturers would have been 

 sufficient in themeslves to hold production below consuming figures. 

 This publication has during recent months repeatedly pointed to 

 influences making for greater and greater difficulty in manufactur- 

 ing. The effect of these retarding conditions has never diminished, 

 and in fact promises now to increase. For instance, in the South 

 the alluring possibilities of the cotton field as awakened by last 

 year's profits from cotton will soon be pulling labor away from the 

 mills and other industries to the plantations. In addition, the wet 

 season of the South will soon strike again into its annihilating 

 lourse and manufacturing activity will have this additional burden. 

 These are but extraordinary impediments which promise in a region 

 already alarmingly short of labor and discouragingly short of ship- 

 ping facilities. 



It is stated that in the Memphis district the .January produc- 

 tion was not more than twenty-five per cent of normal cajiacity. Of 

 course, the burden of never-before-heard-of climatic conditions was 

 in itself largely responsible for that curtailment of output, but on 

 the other hand the conditions which arc mostly responsible still 

 obtain, with the promise of becoming even more burdensome. It is 

 plainly evident that by no possible chance can southern hardwood 

 production be kept up to a point sufficient to take care of war 

 requirements and at the same time show more than adequate stocks 

 for commercial purposes. 



Northern manufacturers are handicapped mainly by consistent 

 labor troubles, which include not only shortage of labor but a 

 startling decrease in labor efficiency. Manufacturers in the North 

 have gone the limit in making prospective work at the sawmills 

 and the log camps as alluring as possible, but it seems that the 



greater the inducements offered the more difficult it becomes to 

 secure and hold sufficient labor to keep operations going. In this 

 section the definite promise is that with the growing use of northern 

 production in government work, there is decreasing chance of hav- 

 ing full supplies of hardwoods to handle commercial needs. 



If no other evidence of scarcity of stocks and prospects for con- 

 tinued scarcity were obtainable, the fact that prices in practically 

 every item are continuing to hold up and show further advances 

 would be enough in itself. 



The lumber trade as a general thing is anticipating the move- 

 ment of great quantities of lumber into building during the coming 

 months. Of course, the building situation as it exists at present is 

 generally understood to be very far from normal. It is not likely 

 either that building commonly done on municipal permits will get 

 back to anywhere near the point of normal activity. However, 

 not only is there a growing movement in behalf of building resump- 

 tion, but there seems to be an awakening realization that provision 

 for more housing facilities comes, at present, under the head of 

 necessities rather than luxuries or speculation. Obviously specu- 

 lative or unnecessary building should and will be held down rigidly, 

 but the population of large and small cities and towns is growing 

 rapidly, due to many causes, chief of which is the vast increase in 

 manufacturing, necessitating centralizing movement of labor and 

 other help. The result is that in practically all centers of popula- 

 tion, supply of housing facilities is way below the necessities of 

 present demand. 



But the biggest hope lies in farming communities. Arguments 

 that farmers will spend millions for new construction just as soon 

 as weather permits seem to be well supported. Such general agita- 

 tion along building linos in agricultural circles is not necessarily 

 of a spontaneous nature, but comes rather as a culmination of sev- 

 eral years of increasing realization by the farmer that isolation 

 does not necessarily compel him to live without necessities, comforts 

 and luxuries. With his closer communion with circles beyond his 

 own, the farmer has come gradually to realize the advantages of 

 such things and he and his family have become educated to the 

 point where they have made definite plans in that direction. They 

 have been biding their time in anticipation of having financial 

 resources to put their plans into effect. No one will argue that the 

 farmer is not now w^ell taken care of financially, and the result 

 without doubt is going to be that he will not only go a long ways 

 in repairing present structures but in many places ho will replace 

 them with new or will add entirely new construction as he finds it 

 necessary or gives promise of convenience to him. The expenditure 

 is not going to stop there, however, but will go to the point where 

 ho will make a substantial outlay for luxuries or at least for con- 



