Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1915 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 



Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th find 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XL CHICAGO, MAY 25, 1915 No. 3 



Review and Outlook 



W Sn 



General Market Conditions 



TUKEK FEATURKS MAXiK TUE COXDITIUN of the general 

 hardwood trade, namely, more favorable reports from the east- 

 <rii points, report of increase in export shipments, and tendency to 

 hold log cut and lumber production closely in check among southern 

 mills. 



As to the first, this is a rather surprising development in view 

 of the fact that all traditions of business have demanded that the 

 East is always the first to be depressed and the last to respond to 

 improvement. This seems to have been upset under present circum- 

 stances as the most favorable reports on the movements of lumber, 

 and in fact in other lines of business, emanate from large eastern 

 centers generally. Why this should be it is difficult to say, but it is 

 unquestionably a fact nevertheless. 



As to the second point, it is not to te inferred from this that the 

 export hardwood business is in good shape or that it will soon be, but 

 figures compiled by exporters at different points show a material in- 

 crease over previous figures, in fact over the figures for April of a 

 year ago. This is particularly true of Baltimore. 



This development is undoubtedly due to the urgent necessity for 

 raw materials of this character in foreign lands and willingness of 

 foreign buyers to accept the responsibility for the stock after it leaves 

 the American ports. Thus, the American exporters are willing to 

 ship their stocks, not being compelled to assume the risk of ship- 

 ments under present conditions of warfare. 



Judging from reports, the condition of lumber stocks in aU for- 

 eign markets forecasts a tremendous demand for American lumber 

 of all kinds as soon as shipping is free to go where it will. However, 

 this would not at present effect a resumption of normal shipments, 

 because the willingness to assume the responsibility of the movement 

 abroad is not in any way general. This feature of the trade has been 

 more or less encouraging, and it is rather anticipated there will be a 

 further gradual developm.ent along the same lines. 



Reports from southern sections, particularly the Mississippi delta 

 country, show that sawmill operators are not stacking up any great 

 quantities of logs, either from their own timber or on contract with 

 logging companies. They do not want to be compelled to operate 

 in order to protect their logs, and in some cases are maintaining their 

 log supply for only a week or two ahead, thus placing themselves in 

 a position to close down if it should become necessary to do so. Quite 

 a number of southern mills, which resumed operations or continued 

 operations right along after the opening of the war, have cut up 

 their logs and are now closed down. Others desiring to at least par- 

 tially maintain their organizations are operating on a reduced basis, 



and on the whole the outlook for the future of the southern stocks 

 of hardwood lumber is good. 



It is proliable that the present condition or proportion of production 

 wUl be maintained, but it is generally estimated that the actual out- 

 put of hardwood lumber in the South at the present writing is only 

 about fifty or fifty-five per cent of normal. In the North there has 

 been a radical reduction, although in some cases the operators have 

 put in a big supply of logs, which will necessitate their running on 

 a normal basis. However, as a whole, they will show a very marked 

 decrease in production probably down to the point of the southern 

 amount, which gives a favorable outlook for minimizing price-cutting 

 in the future and for the establishment of a better plane just as soon 

 as present stocks and those which will be manufactured within the 

 next few months are sufficiently broken to make the demand commen- 

 surate with supply. 



All through the country the lumber yards at the consuming fac- 

 tories are in a disorganized condition. This can be seen very easily 

 on a day trip by rail through those points where the larger consum- 

 ing factories are located. At some of those it will be seen the avail- 

 able stock is scarcely discernible, and these are yards which ordinarily 

 present quite a formidable appearance. 



The trade employing building materials has not been buying re- 

 cently — that is, up to the last month or so — but the real excellence 

 of building conditions at most points has made it necessary to put 

 in certain stocks that show an imminent probability of demand. 



The development in railroad purchases should not be taken as a too 

 hopeful sign until its consistency is established. It appears now that 

 the railroads are fairly well launched in a comprehensive buying cam- 

 paign, but there remains the possibility that they may be buying 

 simply to provide for positively necessary repairs, new equipment 

 and other construction, and with this necessity met, may resume their 

 former policy of retrenchment. However, there is no reason for 

 believing that tliis might be a fact, although it is well under present 

 conditions to plan for any contingency. Under the present buying 

 campaigns, the roads will unquestionably take up a tremendous amount 

 of lumber, and their going back into the field is an extremely en- 

 couraging development for the lumber trade. 



Favorable signs are easily discernible in a great many different 

 directions. The exact extent to which the manufacture of supplies 

 for export under extraordinary conditions influences the normal move- 

 ment abroad is hardly a determinable factor, but it unquestionably 

 has had a great deal to do with the good reports coming from some 

 of the staple lines such as steel. Summarizing, the business 

 of the steel interests will actually show that they are doing a better 

 domestic business in the normal lines of goods than they have for 

 some time back. 



