August 10, 1915. 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



15 



equipment, etc., which will be needed in tremendous quantities to 

 repair the damage already done, will have started. It is not likely 

 that the number of boats thus far destroyed will seriously hamper 

 the shipment of freight across the Atlantic, but it is entirely likely 

 that this elimination of so many freight carrying steamers will 

 have the effect of maintaining a comparatively high level of rates 

 even after the war is over, especiall.v in view of the fact that it is 

 almost certain there will be an immediate demand for all kinds of 

 products from the nations which now can secure a great many 

 products only under extreme difficulties. 



"Were this freight rate in the neighborliood of eighty cents, as 

 compared with less than half of that charged before the war started, 

 tlie im]iortance of the shipping condition of raw materials handled 

 for e.\port is apparent. It is especially so of lumber in view of 

 the fact that the shipping condition is an alterable proposition which 

 can be changed with time and proper handling to the immense ad- 

 vantage of the shipper and buyer. For instance, were no provision 

 made to take care of additional demands for American lumber when 

 normal shipping is again instituted it would be necessary to call 

 upon stock only partially dried, with the result that the weight of 

 this material and the freight paid for carriage across the water 

 would be a third or a half greater, or eveu in fact twice as great 

 as would be the charge were the shipment made under normal con- 

 ditions. It is an easily comprehended fact that the man who has 

 provided against an abnormal demand from abroad when the present 

 warring factions are in position to make purchases and to take up 

 stock when and where they will, and who has laid in a sufficient 

 stock of lumber so that he will have a goodly quantity in the driest 

 possible sliipping condition will have an immense advantage over the 

 man wlio begins to cut only as ho sees the belligerents getting to- 

 gether for peace parleys. For instance, take the respective weights 

 of dry and green sap gum. The man who had his gum piled for 

 several months ahead in anticipation of the big export shipment 

 would be able to send out stock that weighed approximately 3,000 

 pounds. If he started to cut only when he actually knew the war 

 was over and was called upon to ship immediately, the best he could 

 send would be stock that weighed in the neighborhood of 5,000 

 pounds. Suppose, then, the prevailing freight rate immediately fol- 

 lowing the close of the war was seventy cents to the port to which 

 the stuff was consigned. There is a difference of fourteen dollars in 

 freight alone, which would mean a tremendous advantage for the 

 man who had the foresight and courage to provide for the future. 



Of course, there is a great element of uncertainty in attempting 

 to develop plans for the future, in this instance particularly, the 

 uncertainty being in the main due to the impossibility of foretelling 

 events in the field of war. However, this condition will present an 

 opportunity for somebody who guesses right. 



Lumber Cost and Prices 



SINCE THE DAYS when paleolithic men swapped arrow heads 

 for fish hooks, prices have been governed by supply and 

 demand, and that law still holds, notwithstanding an apparent 

 belief on the part of some people that such is not the case. The 

 prices of lumber are now so low that the sawmills are operating 

 on a margin of profit so small as to threaten to disappear. The 

 reason for it is too much lumber and too little demand. Increase 

 the demand or lessen the output and the price will take care of 

 itself in obedience to an economic law that controls the trade 

 of the world. 



Lumbermen want relief from low prices, and they know whence 

 relief can come. If the output could be regulated to conform 

 to demand, the end would be attained. They could reduce the 

 output by an agreement among themselves, were it not that anti- 

 trust laws will not permit them to use this mea'ns of saving them- 

 selves from loss and of placing their business on a solid basis. 

 The law threatens them if they even discuss concerted action to 

 reduce output to comform to demand, and nothing less than con- 

 certed action will suffice. They are tied hand and foot, as it 

 were, and are forbidden to help themselves in the only possible 



way. It seems to be a species of treason to talk of regulating 

 output. Slaughter of timber, waste of low grades, sacrifice of 

 profit, and hard times must all be endured; but the mill owners 

 must not so much as discuss the only remedy within their reach; 

 that is, sawing only as much lumber as the country demands. 



If there is a modern "Gad wedded to his idols" and asking to 

 be "let alone," it is that unbusinesslike devotion to the theory 

 that regulation of output must not be discussed, though the lumber 

 business fall. 



There seems to be a belief in some quarters that a little more 

 investigation may help out. The government has undertaken to 

 find the cost of making lumber in certain spots. It seems to be 

 vainly hoped that data of cost will in some way help the lumber 

 market. Some of the government's most experienced men are 

 at work on the problem and they may be expected to do a good 

 job as far as they go; but every first-class lumberman in the United 

 States already knows to the dollar what his lumber costs him. 

 Still he is unable to secure a living price. Why? Because there 

 is an over-supply of lumber on the market, and figures giving 

 <letails of cost cannot help the situation. What is wanted is some 

 action that will bring supply and demand nearer together. If 

 the demand cannot be increased, the supply should be reduced 

 until prices become normal. 



The situation might as well be faced fairly and squarely. 

 Statistics of cost will neither reduce output nor increase demand, 

 and consequently will have no effect on prices. Mill owners could 

 help themselves, if permitted to do so, by cutting down output 

 until it is brought within reason; but they are prevented from 

 taking that step by the ever-present threat of the anti-trust laws. 

 If some sane and fair means could be devised to remove that 

 pernicious threat, the lumbermen could do more in a month to 

 place their business on a paying basis than can be done in ten 

 years by investigators and theorists. 



Must Work Together on the Traffic Question 



•-pill'; TIME FOR THE INTERSTATE Commerce Commission's 

 •1 hearing on the question of classification of lumber and lumber 

 I>roducts is not any too far distant. It is apparent that what action 

 is taken toward shaping up the lumbermen's side of the case must be 

 taken in the near future, and it surely behooves the various factions 

 interested in this question to overlook the selfish interests involved 

 and to present a unanimous statement before the commission in order 

 tliat there may be no impression given of lack of accord among the 

 ilifferent factions represented in lumberdom. It is imperative that 

 the views of the individual associations be submerged to the interests 

 of the trade as a whole, otherwise, instead of favorable action, or 

 action that will favor any lumber faction, the commission wiU take 

 the railroads' viewpoint, which will undoubtedly be presented 

 imanimously, and the lumbermen will lose out altogether. There is 

 only one course of action which can be pursued by lumbermen with 

 the hope of successful culmination of their efforts. That plan is for 

 them to confer now only for the purpose of deciding what will be the 

 basis of their appeal and argument. The lumbei-men will get nowhere 

 if their present discussion is on the question of what each faction 

 will present to the commission ; if they can not present a united front 

 they might just as well cease their efforts and let the question work 

 out its own course.' 



Without any doubt never before was a problem of such magnitude 

 presented to lumbermen of the United States, and it is not probable 

 that such a possibility will appear again in the future. It means that 

 lumber rates will either be materially advanced or materially reduced. 

 It is entirely up to lumbermen to effect either outcome. If they are 

 united and adopt a single course of procedure to be presented by one 

 body representing the whole industry, it is entirely probable that they 

 will in the end be benefited by materially reduced carrying charo-es 

 per 1,000 feet, and on the other hand if their action is not concerted, 

 if they devote their present discussion to the question as to what each 

 individual should submit when the time for action comes, the result 

 will in the end be detrimental to all. 



