Ausiul 10. 1811>. 



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1^1 Historical Lumber Price Lists 



Many pcnioiu have boon surprised to liiid that no sudi a Uiiuj; 

 rxistK us a comprehensive history of luuilior ])ri('es io America. Tbero 

 arc histories of uJmo.st evcrytiiing else tJml luiicerns tho country's 

 industries; but »licn a record is sought for IuiiiUt, i' 

 iu foiiurc Investij^tors hiivo thought it i<tr:uit;t> thu: 

 and fairly comi)lote lists of prices for past ycunt caiuiol be louu>i. 

 More than one attt-nipt bus Lnvn niudo to cunii>ilu sui-h lists from 

 various sources, but every effort has ended iu partial or complete 

 failure. 



The reason ivhy this is so con bo discovered by a little examination. 

 Tliero arc simply so many prices and of such great variation that 

 they cannot be condensed or expressed aa averages; and if they could 

 be so expressed, they would have little value. 



What, for instance, is tlie average voluo of ash lumber in Maine 

 and in Arkansas? Such an average is not the price in Arkansas, 

 Maine or anywhere else. Again, if a person asks the price of ash, 

 he must mean the price in some particular market. Then, to give 

 an answer, a particular market must be specified; for there is a 

 great difference between the price in Seattle and in Indianapolis. 

 Further, a particular grade must be named, and a particular market 

 for that grade, before a figure can be given tliat means nnything. 

 Ash may be graded as firsts and seconds, No. 1 common, \o. 2 com- 

 mon, and millrun. In giving the price, the grade must be given also, 

 and tlie place, or tlie price will mean nothing. 



In 1912 in the Arkansas market the wholesale price of ash has 

 been quoted at .$36.64 for firsts and seconds. No. 2 common at $11.25. 

 Suppose ten years from now someone should quote, as a matter of 

 history, that ash lumber in 1912 was worth $36.64, and not specify 

 the grade or place, would such a quotation bo worth anything? It 

 certainly would not; for other figures for the same year, but for 

 different grades, could be quoted to show that ash was worth $21.42, 

 $11.25, $20.33, respectively. Or still other figures could be quoted 

 for the same year, showing that firsts and seconds were worth $34.50 

 in Alabama, more than two dollars less than the same grade was 

 worth in Arkansas. 



THE HISTORIAN HELPLESS 



What could a lumber historian do with such figures? Could he 

 name any one figure as the price of ash in 1912 ? To the contrary, he 

 would have to give a separate set for every grade, anotlier set for 

 every market, one set for wholesale prices, another for retail. Fig- 

 ures would accumulate so rapidly that their value would soon be lost 

 in an endless wilderness of statistics. 



In 1912 the Forest Service made a beginning in a history of lum- 

 ber prices for that year only. In the single case of the price for ash, 

 fifty-four separate values were given, without touching the retail field, 

 and ten spaces were left blank, presumably becauso prices for certain 

 places and grades could not be compiled. 



Thus, if a man were to ask the simple question : ' ' What was the 

 wholesale price cf ash lumber in 1912?" the answer, quoted from the 

 list, would be: "It had fifty-four prices, ranging from $10.27 to 

 .$36.64." 



EXDIESS EXP^VltSIOX 



Ash has been cited simply as an example. All others are like it. 

 regarding complexity of prices, except that most of them are far 

 more complex than ash. Every grade and every market has a price 

 of its own, and the price for one grade or in one place holds good 

 nowhere else. An average is worthless in such a case. 



For instance, the average wholesale price of oak that year in 

 Missouri was $15.50, and $22.17 in Mississippi, and for the whole 

 United States $19.63. Suppose someone should quote the United 

 States average in answering an inquirj- as to the price of oak that 

 year. "Would that hold for Missouri or for Mississippi? It would 

 not, and it would not hold for any particular place in the United 

 States. It would be a sort of theoretical, visionary price, true no- 

 where except in the ethereal realms of abstract mathematics. 



SOITETHINO PEACmCAI. WANTED 



When a man asks for lumber prices, he wants figures which will 

 —16— 



apply Bomowhoro; and averages for largo areas, many markota nn<l 

 numerous grades are true nowhere. 



This statement is not a criticism of any effort to compile lumber 

 prices. Tho.se who have tried to do it deserve moie credit than tlicy 

 have ever received ; but it is simjily f^umething that cannot be done in 

 u practical way. No human per.-ivcrmicc .'uid ingenuity can condense 

 twenty different prices into one uvirnge, without having that average 

 wrong in practical application. In the abstract, tho average may 

 bo good, but in tlie concrete it is good for nothing. 



Referring again to 6ak, by way of illustration. The average price 

 of plain oak in 1912 in Missouri wa.s $15.50; yet in tluit same 

 market and during the same year the wholesale prices of the different 

 grades were $6.17, $11.63, $23.9.') iind $o".62, respectively. Tho same 

 grades in West Virginia ranged from $8.99 to $45.08. 



If it is so plainly impossible to compile a list of prices for the 

 various woods, according to grades and markets, for a year so recent 

 as 1912, which is the latest for which statistics are published, it is 

 out of the question to do anything practical in the way of a history 

 of lumber prices covering a term of years. Something might be 

 accomplished, and has been accomplished, along the lino of average 

 millyurd values for millrun stock; but if more than that is attempteil,. 

 and grades and markets are considered, the problem grows so com- 

 plicated and unwieldy that it becomes impossible. This is true with- 

 out touching retail prices, which would multiply the complications- 

 fifty-fold. 



ONE PRICE lUPBACTICABLG 



When the Forest Service published its list of lumber prices in the 

 United States for 1912, it found it impracticable to give each wood 

 a single price and no more. That would have been a simple and com- 

 pact record of prices for that year, but it was impossible. The only 

 way of stating anything near the facts was to quote a number of 

 prices for each wood and for each grade. Tlie following table shows 

 the number of prices given for each one of the commercial woods in 

 the Forest Service list for 1912: 



Wood. Number of Prices. 



Sugar pine 1 



White flr 4 



Tupelo •'> 



Western red cedar 6 



Western hemlock 



Western white pine 



Sitka spruce tS 



Redwood 8 



Western larch 13 



Cottonwood IS 



Birch 18 



Elm 18 



Beech 19 



Hickory 22 



Gum 24 



Cypress 27 



Eastern spruce 20 



Chestnut :{2 



Maple 34 



Douglas flr :\n 



Western yellow pine 35 



Yellow poplar 39 



White pine 41 



Basswood 47 



Eastern hemlock 48 



-Vsh .-,4 



Oak !)4 



Yellow pine 129 



Total (28 woods) 810 



It is thus seen that an average of 29 prices is required for each 

 wood in a single year to express its wholesale value. 



The Panama exposition ought to be a splendid place to exploit 

 eastern hardwoods and help enlarge western trade in them. 



Conditions look very good right now for a successful promoting 

 of oak in cabinet work, both plain and quartered. 



Excelsior and the hiachines for making it originated in America, 

 but the French took the idea of excelsior making, improved on it 

 considerably and developed the article known as wood-wool. 



There is considerable variety in the offerings to select from in 

 equipping a filing room these days, and from among them every mill 

 and factory should be able to get that which just fits its needs. 



