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Copyrishl. 'Ihe Hardwood Company. 1H15 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



LMBRAN 



NEW YOl 

 «OTAMC 



Vol. XL 



CHICAGO, SEPTEMBER 25, 1915 



No. 11 



^Bya<:is)>st;«g^.<y:e>!ii;<x;iTOTOt;;aj>iTOP:ai^^ 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



CONTINUED IMPEOVEMENT has undoubtedly been the key- 

 note of the situation in the last two weeks. Ordinarily in 

 eiuleavoring to size up the markets it is necessary to discount the 

 statements of some optimists who might have an axe to grind. 

 Fortunately there is also room for doubt as to the strict veracity 

 of others whose business interests are best served by a bearish 

 teuilency on the market. However, the relief expressed in the 

 words and tone of those commenting on market conditions during 

 thf last ten days or two weeks seems so genuine, and seemingly 

 all are inspired by such a sincere appreciation of the fact that 

 business is better, that there can be no doubt but that this 

 represents the true record of developments, particularly in the 

 hardwood trade. 



The factory buyers have not by any means adopted a general 

 policy of putting in a full line of stock, but the inclination seems 

 to be toward piecing out their hardwood piles so that they will 

 not be under the necessity of paying big prices for diflBcult deliv- 

 ery, or as the alternative of going without lumber which they 

 actually need. 



There is no reasonable doubt that the buyers as a whole are 

 going to let the lumber handlers carry the burden of the stock 

 for some time to come. On this point there seems to be very little 

 difference of opinion. However, even though this condition might 

 prevail for some time yet, it is but in keeping with the natural 

 course of events as governed by the old reliable ratio between 

 supply and demand to suppose that just as soon as there is any 

 marked difficulty attending the securing of necessary stocks, the 

 buyer is going to protect himself against the inconvenience of 

 shortage and at the same time against a rising market by putting 

 in all that is needed for a considerable period ahead. It is all 

 very well to talk about the consuming factory man having adopted 

 a permanent policy in this respect, and having decided that hence- 

 forth the mills and yards will carry his lumber. On the face of it 

 this development as a permanent policy is out of the question. 

 The factory man is going to let the producer and wholesaler 

 finance his raw material just so long as there is a business possi- 

 bility of his doing so. When business is really good, however, the 

 buyer will not worry very much as to who finances this end of 

 his business. He will devote his energies to making and selling 

 his product, taking full advantage of his own market, and is not 

 going to be worried over the inconvenience of piecing out here 

 and there in raw material. 



As conditions develop with the passing of time, it becomes more 

 apparent that the southern hardwood situation is, generally speak- 



ing, in slightly better condition than is the northern field. In the 

 face of a material reduction in cut, the northern manufacturers 

 have to contend with an appreciable increase in stock on hand. 

 However, on the other hand, the market for northern products 

 continues to show an improvement, and with plans now being 

 worked out by northern manufacturers, actually in effect, the next 

 few months will see a big cut in stock of northern hardwoods at 

 mill points. 



Figures on southern cut are not so closely compiled as are figures 

 on available stocks in the North. Hence an accurate comparison 

 is not possible. Still, from recitals of conditions and experiences 

 of representative manufacturers, it would appear that, due to much 

 greater curtailment in southern stocks, they have not accumulated 

 to the extent they have in the North. A good many large mills, 

 as well as a great many of the smaller institutions, are still shut 

 down without a definite prospect of opening up again in the very 

 near future. Quite a number of others are operating on part time, 

 and on the whole the production of southern hardwood lumber has 

 been kept to a point at least approaching the actual demand. 



In the export business a much more unsatisfactory condition 

 presents itself. It seems that with the characteristic lack of any 

 effort to actually analyze conditions abroad, lumber manufacturers 

 in the South have, on account of rumors of a great scarcity of 

 lumber in England, jumped to the conclusion that any and all kinds 

 of stock will be welcomed with open arms. As a consequence a 

 varied and unassorted line of hardwood lumber has been sent on 

 consignment to England, and, in fact, has reached English ports 

 in such volume that storage room on the docks is exhausted and 

 in some places lumber has to be stored elsewhere. All this means 

 there will be heavy carrying charges to figure against possible 

 ]>rofits. At the same time it will greatly depress prices; in fact, 

 it is rumored that in certain instances sales have been made at 

 less figures on the present high rate of freight than ordinarily 

 prevail on the usual freight rate across the water. 



Of course this condition does not cover all circumstances, and 

 it can be reasonably supposed that John Bull will, with his usual 

 sagacity, send out reports that will have a bearish tendency on 

 the market. He probably figures that he is paying Uncle Sam 

 enough as it is for other commodities, and that it is necessary 

 for him to cut the corners wherever it is possible. However, 

 reports seem to be reliably authentic describing the condition as 

 very much against the interests of American exporters. It would 

 seem that the consignment business has worked enough evil in 

 normal times to make it an object lesson against shipping on this 

 basis during these chaotic times, when everything is more or less 

 topsy-turvy. On the face of it it would look as if the man ship- 



