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CnpyriKht. Tnu FlARDWOOD COMI'ANV. I'.Ho 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 





Vol. XL 



CHICAGO, OCTOBER 10, 1915 



No. 12 



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i^S. 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



THE LUMBERMAN '.S GEEATEST TASK in the last month has 

 been to bring himself to the ])oint where he will admit that 

 business is showing a continued improvement. He has almost mas- 

 tered his perpetual pessimism and his justified lack of confidence in 

 indications or sudden changes for the better. It is indeed true 

 that aside from the greater consistency in development of the im- 

 proved state of trade, there is not much on which to hinge the hope 

 that the present improvement is more permanent than the past 

 accelerated demand. The conviction impresses itself, though, that the 

 factory buyers, the railroads and yard men, the wholesalers and all 

 other cogs in the machinery which keeps the loaded car going from 

 the mill, are buying because their own business has shown an improve- 

 ment, and not merely because they must fill in a ragged hole here 

 and there in the stock pile. 



The most unsatisfactory feature which the millmen must reckon 

 with is the possible result, from the rather spotty movement of stock, 

 that certain lines will be broken while other lines continue normal 

 as far as quantity on hand is concerned. This situation must always 

 be reckoned with in periods of depression and there seems to be 

 less fluctuation now from one wood to another, tending to even up 

 movements, than for a considerable time. The result is that some 

 stocks are pretty well shot to pieces at the mills, while others are 

 rather burdensome in their quantities. The unusual demands result- 

 ing from the war have accelerated the development of this situation. 

 It would behoove the millmen to watch their stock movements as 

 carefully as possible, and to maintain if they can a fairly even con- 

 dition rather than to let the popular items drain out and at the 

 same time pile up a surplus of stuff which is not moving so well. 

 Theoretically this situation should be easily controlled, although 

 apparently it undoubtedly would offer more serious problems than 

 appear on the surface. At the same time there is a possibility of 

 governing stock accumulations to a degree at least, in order that the 

 mills' offerings may be comparatively uniform, thus preventing exces- 

 sive prices on limited quantities of stock at the expense of a de- 

 moralized market on a big over-plus of others. 



The unsatisfactory state of the export business in general is making 

 its impression more deeply from week to week. It is probably for- 

 tunate rather than otherwise that there is a scarcity of shipping 

 facilities, as were all those who are shipping pell mell to foreign 

 countries on the general belief that the war is creating an enormous 

 demand for lumber given a free rein they would have the foreign 

 situation in such shape in a short time that it would take a long 

 while for it to recover. 



Regardless of personal ideas as to the propriety of the recently 

 culminated loan to the allied powers, it will surely follow that big 

 quantities of standard products of this country, such as cotton, will 

 be taken up and demand shipping bottoms. It can be confidently 

 expected that while a goodly part of the loan is unquestionably for 

 the purpose of paying off present indebtedness, a good deal of it 

 will go to the purchase of raw materials and food, such as cotton and 

 grain, which will have to be moved quickly. Hence the loan will tend 

 to intensify the ocean freight congestion. 



Lumbermen seem to feel quite a little satisfaction in the more gen- 

 erous attitude of the buying departments of the railroads. Quite 

 a bit of stock for car constructiou as well as for the maintenance of 

 buildings, new structures along rights of way and similar work is 

 now moving and being inquired for and purchased for future move- 

 ment. This development probably accounts in a measure for the 

 improvement in the yellow pine outlook, which in turn should favor- 

 ably affect the market for hemlock, which has long undergone a 

 state of marked indisposition. 



While there is a good deal of stock on hand in the North and 

 South alike, the supply has not by any means gotten beyond the 

 control of the operators. Over-enthusiasm should be avoided, how- 

 ever, insofar as it would have a tendency to create the inclination 

 toward extra shifts at sawmill plants. While those profiting by the 

 unnatural and abnormal manufacturing now going on in this country 

 have without doubt protected themselves for definite periods without 

 regard to the date of termination of hostilities abroad, it must be 

 constantly remembered that a good deal of our present business is 

 founded on a state of affairs which would not maintain if the world 

 were moving along in a normal, sane state. 



It is not for us or anyone to predict when the carnage will cease, 

 as there are convincing reasons why it should be over in the very 

 near future and equally convincing reasons why it should string out 

 over a number of years. But it can be considered as certain that just 

 as soon as any general treaty of peace is signed there will be another 

 big readjustment in this country that will bring us back to dependence 

 upon our domestic markets and normal demand abroad, and the coun- 

 try must maintain itself in a position to cope with new situations 

 which will arise at that time. It does not necessarily mean that busi- 

 ness stagnation will be a certainty when the war is over, nor should 

 we give too much credence to the utterances of extreme optimists who 

 see only a tremendous boom as soon as the fighting is ended. We 

 must, though, be prepared to meet unexpected results from a situa- 

 tion of such tremendous significance as the culmination of a world 

 war, and it stands to reason that we cannot reckon with an immediate 



