December 25. 1920 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



15 



Why There May Be a Famine of 

 Hardwood Lumber 



The average daily cut of hardwood miiig in all territory other than the Lake States, will he reduced to 

 approximately 2,500,000 board feet, or about 13 per cent of normal, by Jan. 1, 1921. 



This statement is based upon figures gathered in what HAEDWOOD RECORD believes to be the most 

 representative investigation of curtailment of hardwood liunber production made since the bottom 

 dropped out of the market. It illustrates the alarming extent to which the "Buyers' Strike" 

 has forced curtailment of hardwood production, and suggests the certainty of a famine condition 

 of stocks should a normal demand develop before the middle of summer. 



Two hundred and twenty-nine manufacturers outside of the LaJie States territory answered a question- 

 naire sent out asking if they had shut down their mills, what their daily normal production was, 

 when they would close if they had not closed, and if they were still operating, what the per- 

 centage of their present daily output is to normal? "Also, whether or not they were continuing their 

 logging operations, and if so, by what per cent had these operations been curtailed? These 

 operators reported a normal daily cut of 11,333,500 feet, which is 56 per cent of the estimated 

 total normal daily cut of 20,000,000 feet for the mills in the territory reporting. 



Of the operators reporting, 121 had closed their mills as of Dec. 1, representing a normal daily cut of 



5,582,000 feet, forty-three other operators reported they would close between Dec. 1 and Jan. 1. 



They represented an additional normal daily cut of 1,558,000 feet. 

 One hundred and six of the operators reported their mills still at work Dec. 1, they representing a normal 



daily cut of 5,751,500 feet. 

 The operators reporting their mills closed as of Dec. 1, combined with those planning to close before Jan. 



1, represent a normal daily cut of 7,140,000 feet, or 62 per cent of the 11,333,500 feet of normal 



daily cut represented in the 229 firms reporting. 



It is fair to assume that this also represents 62 per cent of the total normal daUy cut of 20,000,000 feet 

 for the entire territory. But 62 per cent does not represent all of the curtailment, as 95 per cent 

 of the firms that would continue operations after Jan. 1, reported that they would be imder cur- 

 tailed production. The operators, who are to keep their mills running, reported a normal daily cut 

 of 4,000,000 feet, in round nimibers, but their present daily output was reported as only 2,700,000 

 feet, or a curtailment of 67 per cent. 



Assuming then that the 38 per cent (7,600,000 feet) of normal daily cut that will continue after Jan. 1, 

 is further curtailed by 67 per cent, we have remaining of total normal daily production after Jan. 1 

 but 2,500,000 feet in round numbers, which is 67 per cent of 7,600,000 feet and approximately 13 

 per cent of the total normal daily cut of 20,000,000 feet. 



Of the firms which had closed nulls as of Dec. 1, 70 had stopped logging altogether, 9 had curtailed logging 

 from 10 to 75 per cent and 8 were stUl domg a normal amount of logging. 



Of the firms operating Dec. 1, 52 had ceased to log, 24 had curtailed operations 10 to 90 per cent and 

 29 were stUl logging normally. 



Calculations made in a similar manner from the reports of 85 hardwood lumber operators In the Lake 

 States, indicate that only firms representing 63 per cent of the normal daily cut of Northern 

 hardwoods wiU be operating after Jan. 1 and that they will be curtailed 57 per cent, which leaves 

 an estimated daily output of but 1,163,000 feet, as compared to a normal daily output for the region 

 of 7,800,000 feet. In other words, the production continued in the Lake States after Jan. 1 will be 

 but 14 per cent of normal. 



In recapitulation, where normally we have 20,000,000 feet daily output we will only have 2,500,000, or 

 13 per cent of normal, and where we had 7,800,000 we will only have 1,163,000 daily production, or 14 

 per cent of normal. In sum, the combined output of the chief hardwood lumber producing regions 

 of the country, exclusive of New England, will be but 13.21 per cent of normal on Jan. 1, 1921. 



