44 



Hardwood Record — Veneer & Panel Section 



January 10, 1921 



{Coiiliiiunl from page 3G) 

 increased both by launching of new bottoms and govern- 

 ment releases; the demand for tonnage decreasing at the 

 same time. 



Manufacturing Costs — Lumber suid Veneers 



In general, wages will be lower but unit costs may be 

 higher, since few plants will be operating to capacity for 

 at least the first few months of the new year. It may be 

 interesting to note that sawmill costs are usually higher 

 in January and February on account of more difficult 

 working conditions and obstacles presented by the ele- 

 ments, except, of course, in the far south. Fuel consump- 

 tion increases — the amount of ice and water that gets into 

 fire boxes on slabs and scraps tends to run this item up 

 considerably. Lower manufacturing costs in the sawmill 

 usually come with March and April, but in May the sum- 

 mer transient labor element becoines a factor and labor 

 efficiency drops off again. 



The outlook for the next year is one of lower manu- 

 facturing costs. Those concerns that can operate on any- 

 thing like a capacity basis during 192! will probably get 

 work done more cheaply than during 1 920, and also more 

 cheaply than later on, when employers may, as we all 

 hope, again be bidding for labor. However, the reaction 

 in wage scales has just set in and it will be several months 

 before this factor will more nearly re-adjust itself. 

 Probable Developments in the Near Future 



In view of the facts it appears possible that Mahogany 

 prices, while they have already declined considerably 



SERVICE 



QUALITY 



Buy Direct from the Manufacturer 



Mahogany Oak Walnut 



The Dean-Spicker Co. 



22nd St. and So. Crawford Ave., Chicago, III. 



from the high war levels, will decline somewhat further 

 as a consequence of the continued lack of demand. How- 

 ever, these further price recessions will in all probability 

 be slight and gradual — not sensational declines. The 

 stocks of lumber in this country today are below normal. 

 Log stocks available for prompt shipment in Africa are 

 the lightest in many years; in Central America about 

 normal. 



Furthermore, the import of Mahogany is in a few strong 

 hands. On account of the nature of the business, the im- 

 portation being directly in the hands of the lumber and 

 veneer manufacturers and distributors themselves, it is 

 not a commodity, such as sugar, coffee, cocoa, rubber, 

 etcetera, which attracts the interest of either legitimate or 

 fly-by-night speculative operators in futures. 



Mahogany price advances, while of course influenced 

 to some extent by the boom demand of the past few 

 years, were most largely the direct result of increased 

 logging, ocean and rail transportation, and manufacturing 

 costs. As these costs decrease there will naturally be 

 price concessions to consumers of Mahogany lumber and 

 veneer but, as stated, such declines, in the event they 

 occur, will in all probability be gradual the next nine 

 months, because of light spot stocks and the logging out- 

 look. 



In these unsettled times no man can confidently, and 

 without fear of contradiction, say that such and such a 

 condition will obtain six months hence, and of course each 

 man is entitled to form, and will form, his own conclusions. 



