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HARDWOOD RECORD 



October 25. r.i2n 



Size of the Lumber Industry 



The maj^nitiKie of tlie IuuiIrt l>usiness cau only be gruspeU after a care- 

 ful consideration of its unusual development. The total number of manu- 

 facturers, large anil small, Is approximately forty thousand ; it Is one of 

 the most important industries in more states than i)ractically any other 

 commodity, reaching from Maine to California, from Florida to Texas, and 

 practically from Canada in the north, down through the states of Minne- 

 sota, Wisconsin. Kentucliy, Tennessee and Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico. 



In volume, in 1S90 the production was 23,49-1.900,O0U feet, reaching the 

 highest figure in 19nS. something over 42 billion feet ; the manufacture 

 during the war period being very much decreased, running down in 191G 

 to about 40 billiim and in 1919 to about 30 billion. 



The annual per capita consumption of lumber in the United States is 

 now about 320 feet, compared with 500 feet iu 1907, and will gradually 

 decrease per capita as more substantial buildings are erected, but for 

 home building nothing is cheaper as a building material, or as beautiful as 

 lumber; Init as population increases, for many years the consumption of 

 lumber will continue, but less per capita, as is the case in Europe. The 

 corresponding consumption in England is 100 feet ; France, 90 feet. In 

 Germany just before the war it was 100 feet. The total cut of lumber 

 a decade ago was about 45 billion feet. In 1919 it was estimated as a 

 little under 32 billion. Something approaching 200 million acres of forest 

 lands is now publicly owned in the United States, so you see that timber 

 lands arc not nearly all in the hands of private owners, and the govern- 

 ment can do much to conserve our timber. It is estimated that twice that 

 area wouhl pcrliaps be sufficient to supply the country's needs in per- 

 petuity. 



The total numlier of employees reaches the enormous number of approxi- 

 mately one million men. Of the principal industries of the United States 

 it is first in the amount of capital invested ; first in the number of people 

 employed, and ranlia second in the amount of tonnage moved, mining, 

 taking in both ore and coal, taking first rank : second to steel manufac- 

 tured products in the value of the manufactured product. Statistics taken 

 from authentic .sources show that in the year ending in June, 1914, the last 

 figures available, there was moved in all commodities over transportation 

 lines in the United States 1,949,000.000 tons of freight. Of this, lumber 

 was second only to the product of the mines and constituted 10.23 per cent 

 of the total. 



The stands of the various kinds of timl)er in the United States indige- 

 nous to our country are as follows : Fir, 702 billion feet : yellow pine, 

 312 billion feet : western pine, 24G billion feet : redwood, 74 billion feet ; 

 cedar, 02 Ijiilion feet ; hemlock, 37 billion feet ; hardwoods, 39 billion feet ; 

 spruce, 35 billion feet ; white pine, 28 billion feet ; cypress, 23 billion feet ; 

 miscellaneous, 341 billion feet 



Iiumber Values, Present and Future 



You are probably interested in getting some information that will enable 

 you to form a reasonably intelligent opinion of the present representative 

 value of lumber, and the probable future values of lumber. 



For a year or two. prior to the great war. there was very little luml)er 

 shipped to South America and Europe, as financial conditions were such 

 that they were buying very little lumber. Immediately following the war 

 ocean freights advanced from .1:10 to practically $100 per thousand feet, 

 making the question of shipping lumber prohibitive. When our country 

 entered the war building was declared as non-essential. I believed, at the 

 time our .government decided to restrict building operations, that it was a 

 grave mistake, and I protested against what I deemed an unwarranted 

 embargo against the housing of our people comfortably and suitably. 

 Establishments were closed, organizations went to pieces, some workmen 

 went into the army, others found other employment. Since the signing 

 of the armistice efforts to get the building industry on its feet have been 

 ol)structed by the very conditions that were brought about through the 

 issuance of orders from Washington, to stop all work, throwing hundreds 

 of thousands of artisans into other chanuels of pursuit, and creating a 

 shortage of workmen whose occupations bad always been largely confined to 

 the building trade. 



In round figures, over four billion dollars must be expended at once 

 rehabilitating the building industry. The country needs fully one million 

 homes for homeless people, to say nothing of our industrial needs for better 

 facilities and enlarged operation. Up to the time of the war we were put- 

 ting two billion dollars annually into homes, and one billion into industrial 

 and amusement structures. It is not difficult for us to reach a common 

 conclusion upon which we may all agree that our temporary difficulties arc 

 merely transitory, in no wise permanent, nor likely to last beyond the brief 

 interval that shall span the gap between the cessation of active work so 

 much needed and the resumption of activities to build up to our actual 

 necessities. 



There is dire need for homes for our people and for the people of all 

 countries. There is absolute need for better homes than we have ever built 

 before, more particularly among the poor, who, at best, have always been 

 too poorly housed. In Boston alone, applications have been made for 

 upwards of 4,000 families who do not now have homes but are living as 

 best they can in congested, insanitary quarters. In all of our large cities. 

 in every one of onr smaller cities, we see the constantly increasing popula- 

 ti<m growing restless under the restraint that has made it impossible to 



build honie.s for them. The lack of sufficient housing in Chicago is fast 

 l)ecoming almost criminal. 



In 191S about twenty thousand homes were built in llie United States, 

 wliereas twenty times tills number coidd have l^een erected. Seventy thou- 

 sand homes were built in 1919. which iirogram was easily four hundred 

 thousand short of the actual needs. In 1890 an average of 110.05 families 

 occupied each 100 homes. Today that figure has risen to altout 125 

 families for every 100 homes and tlie disparity is still increasing. 



New 3,400,000 Homes in Five Years 



With a conservative estimate of 27,900.0011 families in 1925 in the United 

 States', if only a modest building program is iustituted, over 500,000 homes 

 must be built, and at best we shall then have about 129.6 families for each 

 100 homes, or two families in every fourth house. 



Merely to keep up the increasing number of families and in no way to 

 alleviate the present serious congestion, 2,200,000 homes must be con- 

 structed before 1926, while a return to pre-war conditions of 115 families 

 to each 100 homes means the erection of about 3,400.000 dwellings in that 

 period. 



Industrial development, urgent needs of our great railroads for new 

 equipment and public improvements of all kinds are imminent and demand 

 attention. 



In freight cars alone, in the ten years from 1905 to 1915. the average 

 increase per year was 3.06 per cent. The average increase per year in 

 amount of freight hauled was per cent. But, in the four years since 1915 

 the increase has been but a fraction over 1.20 per cent, while the average 

 increase in. the amount of traffic has Ijeen 14 per cent. The present short- 

 age in freight cars is not less than three hundred thousand. In order to 

 make up the existing difference and proviile for the natural increase in 

 traffic the railways must acquire something like 700,000 fri'ight cars dunug 

 the next three years. 



Diiring the ten years ending 1916 the annual increase in railway mile- 

 age was 3.500 miles. Since 1916, though there has been some new con- 

 struction, it has been offset by the mileage that has been torn up or aban- 

 doned and there has been no net increase in railway mileage. To open up 

 the undeveloped resources of the country there is imperative need for a 

 revival of new construction and repairs as well as renewals of all kinds 

 on existing lines. Thousands of miles of old lines must be rehabilitated 

 with new ties, new bridges, culverts, stations, etc. 



During the period from 1913 to 1919 lumber in a general way advanced 

 less than 100 per cent, while the advance on everything that went into 

 the manufacture of lumlier, such as labor, general supplies, and everything 

 that is used in the construction of a building was appreciably more, and 

 practically ever.v other commodity was over 100 per cent. From the 

 peak, lumber has been the first of the great industries to descend to a 

 lower price level, and during the period since the first of .July lumber 

 has declined in a general way from 20 to 30 per cent. Huring the period 

 commencing the first of last January the larger lumber manufacturers 

 endeavored to stabilize prices by issuing prices current and guaranteeing 

 that they would not advance their prices for a certain period unless labor 

 made further advances. In the city of Chicago, of all the various items 

 entering the construction of a building, lumber is the only item that has 

 made a decline, and there has been practically no reduction made in 

 other commodities. 



Farmer Will Build 



In regaril to the farmer, there has been no time in the history of the 

 country when the farmer has had as much to buy with as at the present 

 time, and when conditions become normal he will do a great deal more 

 building. With the housing conditions practically five years behind, and 

 building progress now being instituted all over the country, the demand 

 for railroad ties and other material for railroad construction which is 

 almost five years behind in the general development which must neces- 

 sarily follow the war, lumber is one of the first chief articles to be in 

 demand, and naturally, very shortly, will reach that stage where fair and 

 higher prices will be ol)tained tor it, because it is an unquestioned fact 

 that the supply of all kinds of standing timber is diminishing. Under 

 well known economic rules, as the supply of an article diminishes, the cost 

 normall.y increases ; also, the increasing use of wood in paper making, as 

 well as the increased number of uses to which paper is being put, are 

 substantial reasons why lumber will gradually go to higher levels. And 

 last, hut not least, the farther the logs have to be transported to the 

 sawmills, and the product of the sawmill to the consumer, as is now being 

 done in a long way from the Tacific coast, where the question of freight 

 alone to tile consuming market, in many cases from $20 to $30 per thou- 

 sand, the higher the cost of the product In such consuming markets, as 

 naturally this question of freight must he added to the cost of the- 

 product itself, and explains in a great measure what might be considered 

 as an advance in the price, when really it is but additional freight charges 

 covering the increased distance of transportation as compare<l with the 

 distance in former years. The recent advance in freight rates in many 

 cases makes the additional freight from $3 to $10 per thousand over and 

 above the prices prevailing prior to August 26, the date the advance went 

 into effect. 



We figure that this position is most unique, and I prophesy for it a 

 period of unusual activity and prosperity during the next fl%-e years. The 

 lumlier manufacturers are as greatly interested as are you, gentlemen, 

 representing tile great buying industries trying to stabilize the price of 



1%:; 



