'^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^m. 



Copyright, Thb Haedwood Compant, 1915 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 



Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOlh and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XLI 



CHICAGO, DECEMBER 25, 1915 



No. 5 



X gI^>^t^a;'JCTTOKOTtl!KTO!^itW™^TO:^^ 



General Market Conditions 



THE YEAR CLOSES with little actual change in the country- 

 wide situation that would stamp its closing weeks as of par- 

 ticular note. The only occurrences which stand out above others 

 are certain compilations that merely give added emphasis to the 

 stabilizing of business, particularly of lumbering in the central 

 and eastern states. 



The usual pronouncement as to trade conditions is ordinarily 

 more or less of a guess, or rather the expression of an ambiguous 

 conviction. The strength of the present situation is given em- 

 phasis, however, by definite figures resulting from a careful com- 

 pilation of data comparable to certain periods in the past. The 

 one compilation which inspires extraordinary confidence .comes 

 from the office of one of the large hardwood associations, which 

 reports actual sales made by definite numbers of members report- 

 ing. It so happens that reports received during November came 

 from the same firms reporting in the month prior and an increase 

 of 28 per cent in aggregate volume of sales was established when 

 the figures were put together. 



Undoubtedly the definite statistics of rail carriers of lumber 

 give the best possible evidence of the amount of business that is 

 actually being transacted. The movements of lumber-carrying 

 freight cars on one of the big trunk lines tapping the southern 

 hardwood territory increased during the first week of December 

 by 467 cars of lumber and 429 cars of logs over the same period 

 last year. It is also interesting to note that more lumber was 

 loaded out from piles than would be replaced by the raw mate- 

 rial (the logs) brought in. 



There is an unending series of reports of gratifying activity and 

 developments and other events in the business field that seem- 

 ingly constitute excellent arguments supporting the impression of 

 great improvements in the whole industrial structure. However, 

 it is hardly safe, particularly in these uncertain days, to use fig- 

 ures and data regarding outside industries as there are so many 

 qualifying conditions and so many circumstances to be considered 

 in reference to all such reports that the most favorable refer- 

 ences are often of little value in computing the conditions and 

 prospects surrounding an entirely different line. Therefore in ar- 

 riving at an analysis of general lumbering in the United States 

 as it is progressing today, it is hardly feasible to go beyond the 

 conditions in the fa(?tories on the rail lines and in the building 

 trades. 



The continued absence of any evidence that the factory de- 

 mand will be retarded by inventories this season is about all the 



proof necessary to entirely satisfactory conclusions as to how the 

 land lays in the furniture and interior finish and similar wood- 

 working fields. 



The condition of the transportation lines is emphasized dis- 

 tinctly by their continued purchases of all kinds of equipment. 

 The necessity for continued additions to rolling stock, track- 

 age and other necessary incidentals to the railroading business 

 is forceful argument that a consistent purchasing policy may be 

 anticipated in this direction. 



An activity really akin to boom conditions typifies the build- 

 ing situation in many of the representative cities considered in 

 gathering data on active and prospective construction. A notice- 

 able feature of the detailed reports from building sections is the 

 frequent statement that there is a strong tendency from specu- 

 lative building to more permanent types of structures, which 

 means that purchases will involve a higher class of raw material. 



It is argued by some large purchasers of forest products that 

 the present situation is temporary, and there is cited in support 

 of this theory the course of trade in past periods of transition. 

 It is urged that the general prosperity in lumbering is calling 

 into operation hundreds of small mills which will produce suffi- 

 cient stocks to overbalance supply. This argument would hold 

 if it were not a fact that the demand at present, and as far in 

 the future as it is safe to look, is and will continue to be in- 

 creasing at a more rapid rate than production will be augmented. 

 This argument could be used at all times and under all circum- 

 stances, as the interest in production by those in a position tO' 

 manufacture lumber is increased in direct proportion to the de- 

 mand. In other words, it is not a question of how much lumber 

 will be produced, but rather of how much lumber will be needed, 

 and as much as we all dislike to be over-bullish, there is abso- 

 lutely nothing in present indications or on the horizon that shows 

 that the demand can possibly do anything but continue to im- 

 prove. 



It is not meant by this that it would be a physical impossibility 

 for production to exceed consumption, but it is urged that within 

 reasonable limits there is ordinarily a fairly close adherence of 

 supply to demand, which is especially noted in the production of 

 hardwoods, and the course pursued during the past eighteen weeks 

 by the hardwood manufacturers who control the bulk of hardwood 

 production was such that it can be confidently expected they will 

 not allow control of production to get out of their hands. 



There is little additional information available as to just how 

 much stock is on hand. Interesting data on this score will be 

 brought out in the various January meetings, which should be 



