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Copyright, The Hahdwood Company, 1916 

 Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOlh and 25lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell. Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



i 



Vol. XLI CHICAGO, FEBRUARY 25, 1916 No. 9 



Review and Outlook 



T 



General Market Conditions 



UE LAST TWO OR THREK WEEKS have developeil the fact 

 that there can not by any possible chance be a normal produc- 

 tion of northern hardwoods, as while in some sections there has been 

 no snow and logging has been seriously retarded by this condition, 

 in other sections in the northern lake states, the veritable deluge 

 of snow has made it impossible to work in the woods, and the 

 prospect is that warm weather will come on oefore this snow has 

 become sufficiently packed to make logging possible. In the event 

 that warmer weather and wet and slushy ground conditions under 

 which the average northern lumber .jack will not work prevail in 

 the sections that have been so tied up with the excessive snowfall, 

 it has been estimated conservatively by competent authorities that 

 the input of logs this year will be thirty per cent less than had been 

 anticipated. In fact, while some time ago it was annouuced that 

 in all probability the production of northern stock would be above 

 the anticipated cut, the exact opposite condition will jirove to hoM 

 in the end. 



Nothing more cheerful comes from the South even though marked 

 recessions in the flood are noted from many points. Experienced 

 southern operators mindful of the fact that the flood season nor- 

 mally does not start until along in March, are not expr.essing any 

 great optimism over the immediate outlook for production. As it 

 is, with the water going down rapidly, there is hardly a possibility 

 that there will be any great production of hardwood lumber in the 

 affected territory as the receding water will leave the woods in 

 such a frightful shape that even with the mills high and dry, it W'ill 

 be impossible to supply them with logs. 



Former estimates of the production of southern hardwoods from 

 the Mississippi valley territory varying from about twenty-five 

 to thirty per cent of normal, have been based on the assumption 

 that the usual high water of March and April will add to the 

 lumbermen's troubles over the superfluous troubles that ■ he has 

 experienced by the early floods of February. 



Of course there is no way of telling what nature will provide 

 in the future in the way of surplus quantities of water flowing 

 through the great Mississippi valley, and it may be that the flood 

 stage is over with for this year. However, this condition hardly 

 seems possible and in all probability the flood menace will continue 

 through the normal flood season. 



In the meantime stocks have been moving out rapidly from all 

 sections and are very badly broken at practically all mill points. 

 There is great difficulty in securing many items in both northern 

 and southern hardwoods. If a man has any fair supply of stock on 



hand unsold he is indeed fortunate. 



The wisdom of the policy instituted by several firms that have 

 been holding their lumber, insisting upon prices which they knew 

 would finally prevail, is proven by the fact that they are just be- 

 ginning to reap the l)enefit of their farsightedness. One large firm 

 operating in the South has been quoting figures considerably higher 

 than what were considered market quotations, and has been turn- 

 ing down orders consistently because of the buyers' disinclination 

 to accept stock on that basis. In the last week or ten days this 

 firm has in many cases received wires endeavoring to close sales 

 on certain stocks on the basis of quotations made a month or so ago. 

 This firm is in a position to make a substantial profit on its hard- 

 woods, which it has had the courage to hold for a strong market. 



A considerable number of contracts have been placed in northern 

 markets for northern hardwood stock, but there is no indication in 

 the prices specified that there is any anticipation of a breaking 

 market for a substantial period ahead. Some of the prices asked 

 and received for cargo shijmients from Chicago in the last couple 

 of weeks look better than carload prices that prevailed a few months 

 back. 



It is true that certain elements of the buying trade have been 

 holding off during the past few weeks, but the indications are that 

 this hesitancy has resulted from the fact that buj'ers cannot seem 

 to realize that while they have for so long been able to bear the 

 market by playing one quotation against the other, they are faced 

 with an actual state of affairs that will make any substantial break 

 in values an impossibility. It is true that there is some difference 

 of opinion as to actual conditions, but this difference has to do only 

 with the movement of stock and not with values or with the future. 

 There is nowhere a disposition to let any amount of lumber go 

 without satisfactory compensation. Here and there are- some long 

 items, such for instance as high-grade cottonwood, that are not 

 bringing what they should, but with very few exceptions, the only 

 change in quotations is upward and it seems impossible that there 

 can be any other outcome than a still further upward movement. 



Even without a brisk demand, the general curtailment of hard- 

 wood production is so substantial that supply will be less than de- 

 maud the country over. January shipments are everywhere re- 

 ported to have equalled or exceeded production, and with stocks 

 already showing the effects of brisk movement through January, no 

 possible accumulation of hardwood stocks is in prospect. 



The most ominoas cloud on the hardwood horizon at present 

 appears in the direction of export shipments. The reported ban 

 on imports of hardwoods and cabinet woods proposed by the British 



