14 



HARDWOOD RKCORD 



Mareli 10, 1»10 



(lioy ovordlat* 



to ulion- tlint 



itiiil l>riii|; on the 



r tlint itnwolcomo 



time to arrire. By thus mm sonrcity 



in noar at hand, thej hope ta ; timlur 



l:in.| |rii-c«. 



Tbooc who A'- ---'-•' 1 . ^ . _. u^ .J ,,,.,,; „,,,,„ 



U int«ndo<l to : Aomt li);lit; or not 



• :is in ;i i.ii-u^ li^liL Till" central miBlodding 



• n5 follow" ■ 



i I ' Innd nt 



•400 1 ■ '.o oorroot 



quantilr. Tbo merchantable timber outsiilo of government rcserx'os 



in placed nt 1,&I0 billion feet, or some 700 billion feet leisii tlinn it if*. 



By addinf; thcac two crrora it is found that the chart plnrca tlie totnl 



amount of timber in the whole country nt nearly 1,000 billion feet 



below the true amount. 



Thus linrinf; cnorinously 1 the cnuntry's timber re- 



sourccx the chart nfniiii mnnij _ :rc9 to niiike ii fnisc ahnwing 



nnd to accentuntc tho fear of famine. Tho rate of lumber cutting 

 is juggled. The annual lumber output is not only rcprcseutod to be 

 much Inrgor thnn it is, but the rate of increase in cut from year to 

 year is placed at 3 billion fcot. There is no basis in facts or figures 

 for such an e<itimatc. Xo data sustain it; no statistics back it up. 

 It appears to be a Tolunl:iry offering by tho chart maker with no 

 fonndation in facts or figures. 



Conclusions based on false premifiO!) of that kind must be worth- 

 less; but it is unfortunate that the harm that a statement may do 

 is not measured by either the falsehood or the truth in the state- 

 ment itself. The chart emphasizes its conclusion that all of the 

 country's timber outside of government land will be gone in the 

 year 1930, which is barely fifteen years in the future. The cut of 

 lumber during the year which tlie chartniaker names as the last year 

 of plenty before the famine, is placed at 120 billion feet. He 

 reaches that conclusion by a process of arithmetical progression, 

 simply adding 3 billion feet to the cut of each succeeding year 

 until the last remnant of timber shall be whirled into ttio VMrt,.\- 

 nnd disappear in 1930, and then will come the famine. 



The chartmaker lays his strongest emphasis on the auuual iu- 

 creasing rate of cut. It is this increase which overtakes and con- 

 sumes the cxi^^ting forests and the new growth, as he pictures the 

 approaching calamity. It therefore seems proper to look a moment 

 at this alleged increase of 3 billion feet a year in lumber output and 

 see whether there arc any facts to sustain that view. 



The only available figures by which lumber increase or decrease 

 in the United States can be shown are those compiled by the Bureau 

 of tho Census and the Forest Service, and they are as accessible 

 to everybody as they are to the maker of the chart which foretells 

 the timber famine fifteen years hence. These statistics warrant no 

 such conclusion as the chartmaker draws from them — if he draws 

 his conclusions from any statistics. 



It may not be possible to show what is the exact increase or 

 decrease in lumber output from year to year, becouse the figures 

 are not always comparable, one year with another. More mills are 

 included in one year's returns than in another's. For example, 

 mill output was compiled in 1899 from 31,833 sawmills; from only 

 18,277 in 1904; from 48,112 in 1909; and from 28,107 in 1911. 

 Clearly, the census fipures for those years were not based on com- 

 parable data; bnt that was the government's work, and the brokers 

 who use the scare chart above described, arc not responsible for 

 defects in government figures. But what the brokers are responsible 

 for is drawing false and unwarranted conclusions from the figures, 

 even if they are taken at their face value. 



The government figures do not. after every allowance is made for 

 shortcomings, warrant the statement that the lumber output is in- 

 creasing at the rate of 3 billion feet a year, or at any other rate. 



As a matter of fact, government statistics for 1S99 (the earliest 

 under the continuous system) till the latest, do not prove any posi- 

 tive increase, or even any clear tendency toward an increase, in luni- 



licr cm. 1 hat is contrary to the ar(-.|.t<'.l opiimm, but a study of 

 lumber stuliitics for the ln«t dotcn vcirK, will fail to pruvc nmch 

 increase, if any. It is doubtful whoUicr lumber output in Inrger now 

 thnn it was sixteen yiurs ago, but ]>r)<ciso proof in not jionxililr. On 

 the fnco of tho returns, tho cut in 1890 wbh :ir> billion foot. In 1908 

 it was 33 billion; in 1909, 44 billion; in 1912, 39 billion. Thus it 

 runs up one year, down tho next, de|>cndinK partly but not wholly 

 on tlio numbor of mills included. No atrotch of statintics or of 

 imagination can figure out nnytliing like a regular increuso of 3 

 billion fret a year in the |>ast; ami if with nil the ilnta In-fore ui 

 wo cannot cah'ulate tho pa>t rate of increase of lumber output, how 

 can we hope to do it for tho fuluref Yet that is what the chart- 

 maker claims tu have dune, and he has based his famine scare on no 

 other sort of foundation. 



Those who have files of Uakvwoud HccoiU) and will refer to tlio 

 iFsuo of April 2S, 1913. page 19, will find data of tho country's 

 standing timber, correct according to the latest and best authorities 

 at that time. It was tlicre shown that enough was in sight to sup- 

 ply the country for seventy years, at tho prevailing rate of cutting. 

 That took no account of the new growth that would come on during 

 tho seventy years. 



A Bill for a National Highway 



WILLIAM 1). STEVENS, member of Congress from the tenth 

 district of California, is the author of wliat appears to bo 

 one of tho most practical, far-sighted and constructive bills that 

 has been presented to Congress in a long time. The bill calls for 

 the enactment by Congress of authority whereby the president 

 may start the construction of a well-planned and well-maintained 

 public highway to encircle the entire country, to be built by tbo 

 government and to be known as the national defense highway. 



The practiial application of such a road is apparent as far as 

 a means of providing better defense is concerned. In addition it 

 would unquestionably be of immense commercial importance, and 

 in many other ways would be of untold value to the entire popula- 

 tion. 



One of the most practically beneficial features of the pian is the 

 provision whereby all persons employed in the construction, im- 

 provement and maintenance of the national defense highway 'shall 

 be able-bodied citizens of the United States, physically and mentally 

 capable of military duty, and during their employment shall be 

 drilled and instructed for two hours daily, by United States army 

 oflicers, in accordance with United States army regulations. 



As such a project should not only appeal to the patriotic sqnso 

 of lumbermen but should if put through be of immense importance 

 to them as providing a market for great quantities of forest 

 products, the plan appears to merit their support. 



The Trouble with Oak 



A ma MANUFACTURER OF H.-VRDWOOD LUMBER in the 

 Southeast, in commenting on the uncertain values tliat usually 

 jirevail for nil hardwoods, makes the following statement: 



"The intrinsic value of o.nk is from five to ten dollars a tlK'Usand 

 letter than the market today, and even under ordinary local demand 

 this increase should be realized, but no portion of it will be realized 

 without organization unless the demand runs away with supply, and 

 even should this bo true, it would be temporary and the uncertainty 

 would be more harmful than the good that might result. 



"If there were some way in which every manufacturer of oak 

 could be shown the consuming capacity in normal times together 

 with an ide.i of the stock on hand, we are of the opinion that their 

 idea of prices would be materially changed." 



I'ossibly this writer's view is somewhat pessimistic, although in 

 the main it is absolutely correct. The whole trouble with all branches 

 of the lumber business today is the absence of reliable information 

 as to how much stock is on hand at the. mill and at the factory, and 

 just what the factories will likely want. Fortunately, certain organ- 

 izations are rapidly working toward this end. It is a deplorable fact 

 nevertheless (although this is one of the most important, if not the 

 most importj^nt, functions of association work today), that the efforts 



