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Published in the InleresI of ihe American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Wood- Working Machinery, on the lOlh and 25lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh. President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth BuildinS 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XXXIX CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 25, 1914 No. 3 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



VISIBLE EVIDENCE that the issues before the world are clarify- 

 ing themselves, resulting in a feeling of a greater degree of 

 eonfidence in the situation, and spreading optimism, characterizes 

 the last couple of weeks' developments. This growing resolve to 

 look for the silver Uning is surely to be commented upon and 

 commended, inasmuch as for the most part it is not directly the 

 result of increased prosperity among those so inclined. However, 

 there is a distinct inclination to view favorable business in other 

 manufacturing lines as indicative of probable eventualities among 

 those lines which have not yet felt any direct stimulus. 



It is true, so far, that improvement has been confined to more 

 or less special items which would naturaOy feel an increased call 

 on account of the war time exigencies. But an analysis of our 

 ■domestic condition reveals circumstances which cannot be overlooked. 

 Unquestionably, the truth regarding the present and immediate future 

 lies between the claims of the optimist and the pessimist. We should 

 not be carried away by undue enthusiasm resulting from occasional 

 spurts of business in specialized items, nor should we overlook the 

 fact that the country as a whole must benefit from the basically 

 strong condition underlying the whole proposition. 



As a matter of fact, the balance of trade in favor of this country, 

 which is increasing and has been increasing since the beginning of 

 October, will go a long way toward smoothing the road to prosperity. 

 To further help financial interests, bank reserves have changed from 

 deficit to surplus in the principal banking sections, and the course of 

 exchange has become increasingly normal. There really is no further 

 serious concern over the financial future. 



Our staple money-producing commodities, such as corn, cotton and 

 grain, were seriously threatened by the tying-up of foreign ship- 

 ments, but partial reopening of commercial highways has meant a tre- 

 mendous relief and will result in relieving a very undesirable condi- 

 tion of financial stringency in the South and grain-producing sections. 

 The importance of this is tremendous. 



The average industrial line is operating considerably below full 

 capacity, the most serious consetiuenee being the reduced purchasing 

 power of the operatives. In fact, the average production today is 

 probably not more than fifty or sixty per cent of capacity. Never- 

 thelcFS, there is a gradual resumption of normal working forces and 

 normal hours. Everywhere there is a strong tendency to do every- 

 thing possible to retain employes and provide for them a living to 

 ^ which they surely are entitled, and which can not rightfully be 

 p; denied them as a result of conditions beyond their control, if it is 

 :i financial possibility to keep them in service. 



We have 112,000,000 people here who have heretofore bought great 

 quantities of raw material and manufactured products from abroad, 

 the extent and variety of these importations never having been real- 

 ized until we were forced to the knowledge when import shipments 

 abruptly ceased. Surely there can be no question that prosperity 

 will come as a result of supplying those 112,000,000 in our own coun- 

 try as well as taking care of our share of the duty of supplying the 

 rest of the non-productive world. 



Export inquiries are coming in for furniture, pianos and musical 

 instruments, cutlery, hardware supplies and for an extensive variety of 

 other products which will cover the manufacturing field, if not com- 

 pletely, at least to a sufiicient extent to result in a general feeling 

 of optimism regarding export possibilities. 



The exports of lumber are gradually increasing in volume as the 

 feeling of surety that shipments will reach their destination becomes 

 more substantial. Of course, it will not be even a partially normal 

 trade, but it must be remembered that the export mills with very few 

 exceptions are shut down and are not accumulating stocks, but 

 gradually reducing. As a matter of fact, while there is a considerable 

 amount of lumber, the country-wide policy of curtailed production 

 is already beginning to show its good effects in breaking stock, 

 and following the completion of the inventory season, there is no 

 room for doubt that the consuming factories as a general thing wUl 

 show more active interest in the sawmill offerings. 



The building situation is in fair shape and it seems to be strength- 

 ened by an easing in the financial sitiiation, due to the emergency cur- 

 rency measure and it in common with other industrial lines has been 

 benefited by the apparent change in political sentiment. Whether or 

 not such sentiment is entirely justified is not as yet established. Never- 

 theless, there surely can be no one so partisan as to regret some 

 change for the better no matter what the cause might be, or whose 

 toes might be stepped upon. 



One probable effect of the war will be that as available labor is 

 decreased as combatants are killed or disabled the average wage will 

 rise to a plane more nearly or a par with American labor. The effect 

 IS easily foreseen. 



The buyers, according to firsthand interviews, are talking in a 

 slightly different tone than they have been for some time. They are 

 not actually placing orders, but seemingly are feeling out the situa- 

 tion in anticipation of doing so after the first of the year. We have 

 been looking for this break that will result in business "after the 

 first of the year" for some little time, but there is every confidence 

 that the situtaion has so far clarified th.<it there will be no slip-up in 

 the course of pvi>iit': on tin* nc'cnsion. 



