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Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOth and 25th of each Month, by 



•THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker. Managing Editor 

 Hu Mcixwell, Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



NEW vo 



Vol, XXXIX 



CHICAGO, DECEMBER 25, 1914 



No. 5 



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intwiitwmaP 



'CE^M. 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



THE MOST SERIOUS CONSIDERATION before the general lum- 

 ber trade is tiie effect which drastic increases in ocean freight 

 rates, and lack of desire on the part of ocean carriers for lumber ship- 

 ment will have on the domestic business. The extremely active call 

 for export of commodities immediately needed by European nations 

 places shipping facilities at a premium, the result being an arbitrary 

 and unreasonable boost in freight rates, the rates in some cases now 

 being seven or eight times what they were six months ago. 



It may be that European countries will feel a sufficient need for 

 American stocks to make it worth while to pay the price which will 

 result from this boost in cost of transportation, but this condition 

 has not as yet manifested itself as a fact. In the meantime lumber 

 exporters are beginning to count on an entire shutting off of export 

 trade after the first of the year. 



Of course there has really not been enough lumber shipped since the 

 outbreak of the war to make this a really serious consideration, 

 although in the aggregate the total quantity of shipments has been 

 of considerable proportions. However, it is not likely that the situa- 

 tion will have an unduly serious effect on the trade as a whole, but 

 rather will be detrimental to the interests of individual firms, as it 

 will not be likely to turn back enough lumber on the domestic markets 

 to cause any demoralization. 



Hardwood Record understands there is an investigation now under 

 way which has just started at Washington to look into the action of 

 the steamship companies, and whether or not this will have any 

 favorable effect remains to be seen. 



In the meantime there can be no question tliat domestic condi- 

 tions are decidedly better. The resumption of buying by the rail- 

 roaiis, which became effective a few weeks ago, will very likely be 

 further stimulated by favorable action on the part of the Inter- 

 state Commerce Commission on the plea of railroad companies for 

 further freight rate increases. It is entirely likely that the railroads 

 are permanently back into the purchasing field, although to just 

 what extent they will open up their purchasing departments it is 

 impossible to say. So far their supplies have been bought mainly for 

 repair work, but it may be that tliey will begin to make plans for 

 the manufacture of new stocks and equipment. 



The perennial check to buying on the part of the factory and 

 yard trades, which usually occurs in the latter part of November 

 or early in December and even earlier, was not manifest this year until 

 about the middle of the month. That is, the condition did not gener- 

 ally affect lumber sales. However, lumber movements are being 

 held up almost entirely right now on account of inventory taking, 

 which condition, however, is not at all disappointing; on the other 



hand, lumbermen have felt a degree of satisfaction and encourage- 

 ment in the fact that a cessation of order placing on account of 

 inventory taking was held up until a later date than usual. 



The tone of the evident feeling among all lumber buyers seems 

 to be particularly encouraging for the resumption of order placing 

 immediately following the opening of the new year. There has been 

 a decided inclination not to burden 1914 cash accounts for pur- 

 chases which are not absolutely necessary. Of course there has been 

 a considerable quantity of lumber going into factories and yards, 

 but in most cases this has only been in strict conformity to imme- 

 diate and insistent demands from the operating department. 



The general tone of reports coming from all over the country has 

 certainly been revolutionized during the past month. Previous to 

 that time there seemed to be no ray of encouragement and deep gloom 

 pervaded the entire trade, especially in the East. However, recent 

 reports even from the conservative eastern states are encouraging 

 in the extreme, although the hope expressed is conservative. No 

 one seems to anticipate or desire immediate resumption on a normal 

 plane, the general hope being that gradual strengthening of business 

 which has been anticipated for so long, will begin to show itself after 

 the new year. That these hopes are based on sound foundations 

 is distinctly proven by conditions which are actually opening up. 



The resumption of business in Wall, street without undue excite- 

 ment or undesirable fluetu.ations is a decidedly portentous omen for 

 good. There is a surprising scarcity of liquidations of foreign 

 holdings, and as a consequence the general tendency toward an easing 

 of the money conditions of the country was not checked by this 

 dev^opment in the East. It had been confidently expected that the 

 opening up of the New York Stock Exchange would result in a 

 complication of developments that would have a checking tendency on 

 business throughout the country. However, this development has 

 become a matter of history without the anticipated result. 



The whole fabrie of the American business seems to bo knit with 

 sufficient closeness to withstand the wear and tear incident to pres- 

 ent abnormal conditions. It has come through the most serious 

 part of the crisis without undue casualties, and is approaching the 

 new year with confidence entirely justified by conditions and with 

 an unanimous belief in its ability to stand on its own feet squarely, 

 and to make real progress with the opening of the new year. 



The opportunity is here to prove American resourcefulness and 

 ability without undue risk. American business men now have the 

 opportunity of proving themselves worthy of the best traditions of 

 Ameiican character, or as moral cowards in a business sense. We 

 have the incentive, the energy and the resources to take the former 

 course, and the excuse to follow the latter course. Which road will 

 we follow ? 



