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Published in ihe Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the lOth and 25lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H, Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker. Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell. Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones : Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XXXIX 



CHICAGO, FEBRUARY 25, 1915 



No. 9 



^C M;yL;aiai ai< ; '.')'^wj :H:jWiWifci<i)^i^ 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



THE MOST PRONOUNCED FEATURE having direct bearing 

 on lumber, which has shown for the last few weeks, is the 

 better tone in the building situation in practically all parts of the 

 country. By this it is not meant that building has yet reached 

 anything like normal proportions, but actual figures show that 

 the falling off in recent months as compared to corresponding 

 months in the year 1914 is not nearly so serious as had been ex- 

 pected. There are encouraging circumstances to be considered in 

 connection with actual figures showing new work authorized in 

 the building line during the past month, namely that in addition 

 to that actually shown there is a very marked activity in the 

 ofiices of contractors and architects on preliminary plans for 

 buildings which have not yet reached the stage where they are 

 definitely listed as new structures, the plans not yet having been 

 filed. In addition, there is a large amount of work which has 

 been resumed, which had been interrupted at the beginning of 

 hostilities on account of lack of funds. In many cases it has been 

 impossible to secure the necessary backing to continue this work. 

 This is going to have a marked effect upon the demand for ma- 

 terials going into building construction. 



Reports from different hardwood consuming centers are prac- 

 tically unanimous in more favorable statements regarding the fac- 

 tory trade, the general belief being that there is really a noticeable 

 increase in inquiries going out. It must be remembered that these 

 inquiries are more than ordinarily significant as the general policy 

 is still maintained by practically all buyers under which purchas- 

 ing is still for immediate demands only. Thus the bulk of in- 

 quiries emanating from woodworking institutions are backed up 

 by the definite desire to buy, and hence have a greater significance 

 than the usual line of correspondence of this character. 



The price level shows a slightly firmer indication, although it 

 can hardly be said that there has been any general advance in 

 most lines. In this connection an incident recently came to the 

 attention of Hardwood Record, which seems to bear quite a marked 

 significance. A large handler of southern hardwoods is controlled 

 by one of the biggest so-called trusts in the country, a corporation 

 which is noted for its sagacity and far-sighted business policy. 

 This subsidiary institution, which handles a great deal of hard- 

 woods, is rigidly holding its better grades of stocks for prices 

 which will average in the neighborhood of $5 over the average 

 going prices in most markets. It insists that this policy will be 

 rigidly adhered to until the price level has reached the point set. 

 Inasmuch as the trust referred to controls this company, and inas- 

 much as this policy seems to be a definitely determined one and 



to be in the form of actual instructions to those in charge of the 

 active administering of the subsidiary's business, this circumstance 

 indicates that the information available for those in the circle of 

 the country's big business convinces them that the future holds 

 much better prospects for actual strengthening of demand. 



Analyzing the production and demand in the North and South, 

 there seems no plausible reason why this policy should not prove 

 to be a correct one. It has been conservatively estimated by men 

 closely in touch with the situation that the production in the 

 southern hardwood territories collectively would not average more 

 than twenty-five to thirty per cent of normal from the beginning 

 of the period of curtailment up to a few weeks ago. In the North 

 an average curtailment of some forty per cent is the general 

 estimate. The average of these then would place the hardwood 

 production of the country on a general basis of approximately 

 forty-five per cent of normal. 



On the other hand, available information as to actual consump- 

 tion in the same period would show it to have been between fifty 

 and sixty per cent of normal. Thus from the mills 's standpoint 

 the situation as a whole appears to be excellent. It must also be 

 remembered that conditions surrounding the yard and factory 

 trades are in very much the same shape and that their stocks 

 have gotten down to a point where they are not carrying complete 

 lines of anything, and are placing orders for hurry-up shipment 

 to meet the demands of actual needs. The truth of this condition 

 is born out by numerous instances where great difliculty has been 

 experienced in locating certain kinds of stock when thej- arc needed 

 in a hurry. There is only one possible outcome, as appears on the 

 surface at least, and this is that the stock situation at mills and 

 receiving points as compared to actual demand creates a situation 

 under which with even a slight resumption of active buying there 

 will be an excess of demand over supply and at least a partial 

 reversion to seller's markets. The outcome, of cour«'\ "ill be a 

 greatly strengthened price level. 



That this possible outcome is based on real faci>. is pretty gen- 

 erally conceded by men who have taken the trouble to observe 

 conditions as they are. This circumstance is not being received 

 with any evidence of hysterical optimism, but is advanced by the 

 more far-sighted element in the hardwood trade as indicative of 

 conditions which can confidently bo expected to materialize. 



It is a fact that within the past month or so several large manu- 

 facturing factors have gotten back into the active producing field, 

 but it is hardly possible that this circumstance will have an undue 

 influence as overbalancing the scale of supply and demand in 

 favor of the former. This resumption of manufacturing comes in 



