HARD WOOD RECORD 



J5 



contribution there to the "under consumption" that is fast becom- 

 ing a menace. So much for the yard trade end of it, as related to 

 substitutes. Of more far reaching effect is the consumption of sub- 

 stitutes in railroad cars, street paving, silos, bridges, and even the 

 steel tie. 



We must not fail to recognize, however, that as the country be- 

 comes settled up, the era of permanent construction supersedes that 

 of the temporary, and that most of the United States is much more 

 densely populated than ten years ago. To considerable extent lum- 

 ber has been reduced from the ranks of a major building material 

 to that of a subsidiary commodity. 



The Pendulum Theoky 



Therefore, must we not couceile that the "pendulum theory" 

 upon which we have all depended for three generations must be 

 relegated to the shelf? The lumber manufacturer has always be- 

 lieved that it would swing back — it always had. He need not even 

 lubricate it. He had always proceeded on the hypothesis that diminu- 

 tion of the supply of raw material would make him his fortune. Is 

 there any other industry in existence where the producer whittles 

 away in a frantic effort to deplete his raw materials so as to enhance 

 the value of his remaining assets? Do not all other manufacturers 

 figure on a profit on each unit of production as they go along? So 

 we have three aggravating phases to face: 



1. The inroads of the substitutes. 



2. The apathetic lumber dealer. 



3. The lack of understanding of the true situation among most 

 producers. 



Before giving consideration to this subject from the standpoint 

 of the association, let us consider a few facts pertaining to the real 

 effect of some substitutes and also to the possibilities for holding 

 wood consumption with properly directed effort. Let us cite also 

 some of the methods and accomplishments of producers in other 

 lines of trade. 



Steel and cement are the principal competitors of wood up to 

 date. Out of 60,000 cars constructed 2,000 were of wood as per 

 report recently made before the Interstate Commerce Commission. 

 The Carnegie Steel Company says that the steel tie is being used in 

 increasing numbers under certain conditions; that in scrap it yields 

 about half the first cost. 



In twelve months 95,000,000 barrels of cement were produced in 

 this country. Reduced to board measure equivalent this quantity 

 would displace 20,000,000,000 feet of lumber. Conceding that 75 per 

 cent was consumed where the u.se of wood is inadvisable, still could 

 wood have held the balance the consumption of lumber would have 

 increased 12% per cent. The cement consumption reduced to board 

 measure (figured on the usual method of mixing cement) would have 

 made a walk 1 inch thick, 6 feet wide, 620,000 miles long, or twenty- 

 five times the circumference of the earth at the equator. It was 

 the equivalent of half the lumber cut of the United States. The 

 population of this country increased 21 per cent in ten years and 

 the increase of lumber' consumption was 14 per cent; consequently 

 the per capita lumber consumption decreased. Cement consumption 

 increased 220 per cent in ten years. 



An interesting matter in connection with this question is the 

 large item of freight included in the cost of lumber to the consumer. 

 If out of every dollar 's worth of lumber the consumer pays from 

 40 to 80 cents freight it is apparent that the use value is lower than 

 most substitute materials in most sections of the country. If cement 

 and steel upon actual tests prove inferior based upon first costs, 

 maintenance and adaptability to repair or alteration, then wood must 

 win the supremacy, otherwise wood must recede to its place among 

 subsidiary materials. 



There have been many instances in other lines of merchandise where 

 new channels had to be opened up, and where commodities had to 

 give way to new and progressive achievements. 

 Diversion of Pkofits 



A highly intensified and up-to-date organization of statisticians and 

 investigators has been essential in determining where to divert 

 products. The Standard Oil Company knows very closely the per 

 capita consumption of kerosene, and has had to face a continual 



On the other hand, it has had to keep pace 

 reasiug demand for gasoline. The National 



curtailment of its i 



with the constantly 



Fire Proofing Company was obliged to delve into the fine residence, 



dry kiUi, and silo construction as an outlet for a product designed 



originally as a covering only for steel members in large buildings. 



There are over 7,000,000 farms in this country and only 350,000 

 silos. 



One thousand feet of lundjer more consumption to each farm per 

 annum would give an outlet for 7,000,000,000 feet and 1,000 feet is 

 not any quantity of lumber to be absorbed around a farm in a year's 

 time. 



The Paint Manufacturers' Association is a good example of the 

 accomplishments possible through a trained corps of men continu- 

 ally following up prospects. A California lumberman stated recently 

 while discussing the subject of intensified selling, that he had pur- 

 chased a country hotel and within two weeks personal representatives 

 of two leading paint makers had called upon him endeavoring to 

 induce him to paint the structure. There are many avenues open to 

 effort of this kind. 



Turning to another phase of the question. 

 A 3-RiNG Game 



Is it not true that the name "manufacturer" as applied to an 

 operator in our industry is misapplied? He is little more than the 

 harvester of Nature's crop. He did not even sow it, so he is not 

 in the farmer class. The manufacturer of most commodities plays a 

 3 -ring game: 



1. He conceives his product. 



2. He manufactures it. 



3. He merchandises it. 



We must awaken. We must find ourselves. We must sell our 

 lumber. It was formerly bought from us. Now we must sell it, 

 just as any other producer sells his product. 



Now' to the merchandising from the viewpoint of the association. 

 We have three associated efforts: 



1. The National association. 



2. The ' ' Producing Zone ' ' association. 



3. The selling association. 



There is a clearly defined field of operation for each. All are 

 essential, none is superfluous. There is some talk about the concerted 

 effort on the part of substitutes against wood. In my judgment it 

 appears to be concerted because each substitute is waging its own 

 individual campaign, and the cumulative effect appears concerted. 

 In lumber, however, there is an opportunity for concerted action 

 through the National, in addition to the cumulative effect, which 

 will be forthcoming through the ' ' Zone ' ' association activities. 



Mr. Crosby 's illustration of the lumber consumption being anal- 

 ogous to a "pie" is most apt. The consumption of various woods 

 are ' ' cuts ' ' from the pie varying in size according to the accom- 

 plishments in the marketing of each, and the whole pie (the total 

 consumption) can grow at the same time without disturbing the 

 relation. The larger the pie the larger the cut in proportion repre- 

 senting the individual wood consumption, provided the individual 

 wood expands itself in the same proportion. 



Both the National and the Zone associations have important func- 

 tions, besides the part they can play in merchandising, and it would 

 seem best that their exploitation departments should be separate 

 departments. 



Taking up each association in order: 



The National 



1. We must carry on a publicity campaign in an effort to over- 

 come the prejudice against the lumber industry. There is a popular 

 misconceived feeliug against the entire industry from stump to 

 retailer. An abatement in this persistent, antagonistic attitude must 

 be eft'ected. Stumpage owners who are not manufacturers are vitally 

 interested and should be contributors to the work of the National. 



2. An extensive advertising campaign in publications should be 

 inaugurated and pursued with vigor in an effort to reinstate the 

 former "love" for wood in the public mind. Such appeals to the 

 public, if made frequently, as appeared in last Sunday 's Chicago 

 papers advertising this wonderful Forest Products Exposition, can 



