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Published in the InleresI of the American Hardwood Foresls. ihe Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Wood- Working Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker. Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell. Technical Editor 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street, CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XXXVIII CHICAGO, JUNE 10, 1914 No. 4 



Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



PRESIDENT WILSON 'S ANALYSIS of the present business de- 

 pression, in which he states that present conditions are purely a 

 result of a psychological condition, seems to be substantiated by 

 fundamental conditions which have been presenting themselves from 

 time to time. 



There has been nn unusually favorable rumor as to the probable 

 yield of winter grain crops, and government figures just out certainly 

 show a remarkable harvest of winter wheat, oats, barley, rye and other 

 grains. The estimates are that the wheat crop this year will be 

 900,000,000 bushels, which will be the largest crop ever raised, 1.37,- 

 000,000 bushels more than the harvest last year. The report regarding 

 oats, barley and rye is equally gratifying, it being estimated that the 

 total yield of wheat, oats, barley and rye will be 2,360,000,000 bushels, 

 the largest amount ever raised in this country. 



With this crop now being harvested the outlook seems good for an 

 early return to the buying market on the part of farmers throughout 

 the country. There is no question but that this element, as a pur- 

 chasing factor, is of tremendous importance, and with the farmers in 

 such a healthy financial condition as they will unquestionably be in 

 following the harvest and marketing of this immense crop yield, there 

 is no question but that they are going to be in the purchasing market 

 again in the near future. This will, of course, have a considerable 

 effect on lumber. 



For some reason or other the general business of the country has 

 not seemed to respond to the previous advance report of probable 

 favorable crojis but it is hoped that the actual figures now presented 

 by government officials will have a considerably favorable effect on 

 the general business situation. 



It is not anticipated, however, that even with the more normal 

 state of demand, a decided advancement will be felt for several 

 months to come in the general business situation. This is due to 

 the summer months in the first place, and, in the second place, to 

 adjustment of business conditions which is never immediate but makes 

 itself apparent gradually. Thus the situation seems to indicate a 

 continuance of quiet times through the usual dull summer mouths, but 

 a gradual return to a very favorable condition approaching normal 

 in the fall, when returns from the tremendous crop have been received. 

 The farmers, as a purchasing factor, are unquestionably of tremen- 

 dous importance to all lines of manufacture and there seems to be no 

 reasonable doubt that they will he in position to purchase a consider- 

 able amount of equipment and raw material. 



As to the lumber situation specifically, very little change has been 

 noted in the last couple of weeks, with the exception of spotty reports 

 of more favorable business. It is interesting to note, however, that 



ic|iorts of firmly maintained price values are abuost general, with 

 but here and there rumors as to any appreciable amount of price cut- 

 ting. No one will deny that business is decidedly dull at this time, 

 but considering all factors there certainly is no reason for any belief 

 other than that the fall months will see a satisfactory stimulus in 

 trade generally. 



The railroad companies are still most decidedly out of the market 

 for almost all kinds of raw material. As a matter of fact, they are 

 buying practically nothing and are continuing their policy of swap- 

 jjing material and equipment around from shop to shop rather than 

 undergoing any new expenditure. It seems, however, that they are 

 viewing the question of advance rates with considerable optimism, 

 and, so far as stated reports indicate, if they secure what they ask 

 for, or a fair portion of it, they will become active consumers of 

 almost all lines of equipment and material. 



One decidedly favorable element which appears in this situation is 

 the fact that all classes of concerns are placing themselves in a 

 decidedly favorable stat« of finance and general condition. This act 

 of liquidation is going to mean a lot for cleaning up old scores and 

 through this period of retrenchment and general conservatism a great 

 many business institutions are going to be able to place themselves 

 in a much more favorable financial situation. In this way their dis- 

 position to purchase will be increased when conditions warrant, and 

 furthermore, this cleaning up old supplies and equipment will mean 

 practically a clear field when the proper time arrives. 



The hardwood situation continues to be slow pretty much through- 

 out the country with here and there, however, a report of stimulated 

 activity during the past two or three weeks. These reports, how- 

 ever, are largely of a local nature and are effected by local con- 

 ditions of building, etc. The hardwood trade generally speaking 

 accepts the situation as it is vrith the anticipation that slow condi- 

 tions will probably continue throughout the summer months, but also 

 with the justifiable hope that the situation will clean up considerably 

 when the usual summer dullness begins to subside. 



All lines of consuming interests using 'hardwoods are practically 

 out of the market at the present time. The building situation has 

 not been up to normal in any of the large centers, which, of course, 

 results in more or less depression in lines directly affected by build- 

 ing construction. Furniture people have been operating under short 

 time for the most part and still continue to buy in small parcels. 

 Notwithstanding the favorable crop outlook, the farmers have not been 

 purchasing so much new equipment in the way of implements, etc., as 

 had been expected and as a consequence the large manufacturers turn- 

 ing out this class of products have also been meager buyers. How- 

 ever, as stated above, the situation in this particular seems to be due 

 for cleaning up and this promises that farmers wUl not only do eon- 



