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floMf oM RecoM 



Published in the InleresI of ihe American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Wood- Working Machinery, on the lOlh and 23lh of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, Presid 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managini 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Edil 



Entire Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn Street. CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



LIBRARY 

 lEW \«f* 

 I OTAN'. 

 QA!' 



Vol. XXXVIII 



CHICAGO, AUGUST 25, 1914 



No. 9 



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Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



IT IS UTTERLY IMPOSSIBLE to propheiy accuiat 

 si 



the pos- 

 sible effects of the European wars on the lumber business in 

 America. The cautious policy, as being displayed by the exporters, 

 however, seems to be a wise one under the circumstances. That 

 is, until conditions have so shaped themselves that it will be pos- 

 sible to outline some plan to successfully take care of the lumber 

 denied a market by troubles abroad, it is unquestionably good 

 policy to go slowly. 



When the first definite announcement was made of an actual 

 state of warfare involving the tremendous forces now in battle, 

 the full extent and significance of this mighty upheaval was almost 

 inconceivable. It is probably fortunate that our distance from the 

 actual field of warfare makes it impossible that we clearly realize 

 what it means. As a result, the American business man has un- 

 questionably been given a steadier and more sane outlook and has 

 been prevented from becoming, to any extent, panicky. 



The first predictions were that even our domestic trade would be 

 disorganized and upheaved but, strange to say, a gratifyingly 

 opposite condition has followed the original announcement. It 

 really seems from reports coming from different parts of the coun- 

 try that in the last week or ten days there has actually been an 

 apparent improvement in domestic demand for hardwood products. 

 It is true that this demand has been more than ever for immedi- 

 ate shipment on actual requirements. This, of course, simply illus- 

 trates the logical policy of the buyers to merely meet their imme- 

 ate demands. However, it is significant that the volume of sales 

 seems to have been greater both in pine and hardwoods, there 

 being a steady shipment of lumber on small orders, the total ag- 

 gregating an amount which is not at all ungratifying in view of 

 the season of the year and the general laxness which has prevailed 

 for the past five or six months. 



It is, of course, apparent that exporters will be seriously affected 

 by the European trouble. That is, their regular export markets 

 will be absolutely cut off for an indefinite period. But as to the 

 ultimate effect of this condition, there is unquestionably room 

 for differences of opinion. 



No lumberman is justified in assuming that uni^recedented calam- 

 ity will result to American lumbermen as there are other features 

 T^to be considered than the immediate stoppage of the regular line 

 (~j0f exports. It is true that there will be considerable difficulty in 

 '"■ establishing markets at other points, but this development is en- 

 tirely within the realm of possibility and. iu fact, probability. It 



is simply a question of going about it in the right 



of meeting 



conditions intelligently and aggressively in order that export trade 

 may be opened up in countries not now receiving any great quanti- 

 ties of American lumber. 



What will probably be the most effective feature is the entire 

 likelihood that the stimulus which will be given to other lines 

 of trade will create sufficient prosperity throughout the country 

 that, through ultimate demand for domestic consumption, sur- 

 pluses created by the forestalling of regular export shipments will 

 be readily absorbed. 



One fact should not be overlooked — namely, that it will do no 

 harm to hold the export lumber which it is impossible to forward 

 as it must be remembered that if it is properly taken care of its 

 value due to its greater dryness will be not inconsiderably aug 

 mented. 



There does not seem to be any question but that lumber will not 

 be considered contraband of war. It is equally apparent that in 

 the course of time there will be ample facilities for shipment as 

 this country is making every effort to create merchant marine 

 under its own colors. Furthermore it seems likely that no matter 

 what the outcome of the land battles may be, the combined fleets 

 of the allies will probably be able to maintain safety for shipments 

 consigned to their ports as it does not seem probable that Germany 

 will risk the destruction of her navy by entering into the conflict 

 with the overwhelming naval forces of her opponents. 



This, then will unquestionably mean that a considerable market 

 for lumber will be opened up again in those countries whose navies 

 are capable of protecting the commerce. 



Of course, there is a question as to whether or not they will have 

 sufficient resources to meet obligations of this kind but it is en- 

 tirely reasonable to suppose that they have anticipated the present 

 conflict for long enough time to have prepared themselves finan- 

 cially without creating an excessive drain on the resources of the 

 individuals. 



The outlook is still unquestionably uncertain, but it is by na 

 means bad. In fact, there have been numerous panics within the 

 memory of the majority of present lumbermen, the consequences 

 of which have been infinitely more serious than those so far result- 

 ing from present conditions. While Hakdwood Eecord advocates 

 caution ur,til all the cards are on the table, it most emphatically 

 urges that the business men of the country do not allow themselves 

 to become panic stricken in any sense of the word, as there is abso- 

 lutely no cause for believing that general calamity will result. 



Above all things, the important fact should not be overlooked 

 that innumerable industries in this country depending for certain 

 supplies and raw materials upon foreign sources will be under the 



