20 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



The Car Shortage 



statistics auil official statements are not necessary to demonstrate 

 conclusively the increasing imminence of an actual shortage of freight 

 cars. The most striking evidence is obtained by a perusal of the 

 market reports coming from the various hardwood centers of the 

 country, as published in this issue of Hardwood Kecord: Corre- 

 spondents almost unanimously include in their reports the assertion 

 that the chief difficulty encountered by their respective communities 

 is in making deliveries. While in some cases this is ascribed to the 

 general shortage of stock, in the majority of reports is the statement 

 that great difficulty is already felt in getting enough cars to carry 

 the stuff. Quite evidently car shortage is no more an anticipated 

 condition but an actuality. 



Aside from the annual autumn strain upon the car supply due to 

 the movement of the grain crops, generally improved business condi- 

 tions resulting in largely increased shipments of all kinds of mer- 

 chandise have been a potent 



these one hundred and seven cars, but that he had filled his re- 

 quirements until December, after which he expected his wants 

 would be small. He had ordered enough extra to make up for 

 possible non-deliveries. 



The impending car shortage will undoubtedly pile up consider- 

 able stock at mills, and with this accumulation in sight, sawmill 

 men will have to guard against the inclination to cut prices, as 

 they are liable to imagine that it means a decrease in consump- 

 tion. 



It is a fact that the millman generally has not taken into con- 

 sideration the fact that the extra profits accruing to the manu- 

 facturers through increased prices have come out of the whole- 

 saler's pocket, as he has not as yet been able to raise prices to the 

 consumer commensurate with the level which he has to pay the 

 millman. 



It seems to be the general opinion that wood goods and iron 

 will not stand any further advance until December, inasmuch as 



a fair profit is being realized 



factor. With this in mind and 

 also considering the enormous 

 prospective yield of all kinds of 

 crops, the railroads are making 

 herculean eft'orts to take care of 

 it as far as possible. All shops 

 are working full time on repairs 

 and on new rolling stock, and in 

 addition necessary repairs along 

 the rights of way are being 

 rushed, when possible, in order 

 to avoid tying up traffic when 

 the big rush is on. 



On the other hand, the ship- 

 pers generally are doing their 

 part to help matters by prompt 

 loading and unloading and by 

 putting on each car its maxi- 

 mum load where possible. While 

 no amount of effort will act 

 ually insure car supply equal 

 to the demand, continued co- 

 operation between the railroads 

 and the shippers will do a great 

 deal to assuage the inconven- 

 ience and loss resulting from 

 excessive short.igc of rolling sto<'k. 



Some Thoughts on Present Conditions 



The average lumljcrii;an has been so jubilant over the increas- 

 ing signs of returning prosperity that it has usually not occurred 

 to him to compare actual conditions and the probable causes 

 thereof. That trade is getting back to a normal condition is true be- 

 yond any shadow of a doubt, but nevertheless the lumber fra- 

 ternity should not look with too great a degree of satisfaction 

 upon what appears to be the basic cause for this change in con- 

 ditions. For instance, the' general increase in price is generally 

 conceded to be due to increase in consumption. 



A prominent wholsaler in commenting on this condition says 

 that producers overlook the fact in their analysis of the situation 

 that a considerable percentage of the short supply of hardwoods 

 came through the fact that the Mississippi floods shut down 

 many mills for months, and crippled some so that they will prob- 

 ably never start again — this with the best producing period at 

 hand. He further is of the opinion that there are many speculative 

 orders put out for both yellow pine and hardwoods. Buyers 

 seem to believe that a fair percentage of Inills, on an advancing 

 market, will repudiate orders, and they therefore double their 

 original orders so as to cover their requirements. One large 

 buyer recently had on file one hundred and seven cars unship- 

 ped, which he classified as "those that never came." This buyer 

 stated that he did not expect to receive more than one-third of 



UNSOLICITED TESTIMONIAL 



THE BROWNLEE-KELLY CO. 



Successors to BROWNLEE & COMPANY 



WHOLESALE LUMBER 



Detroit, Michigan, Sept. 13, 1912. 

 Hardwood Record, Chicago, III. 



Gentlemen: Referring to your letter of Sept. 4th, re- 

 garding lignum-vitae. We wish to say that you deliv- 

 ered the goods in this case as you always seem to do 

 when any difficult matters, with reference to hardwood 

 lumber, are referred to you. 



We located our requirements thru the information you 



gave us, and wish to extend our hearty thanl<s. 



Yours very truly, 



THE BROWNLEE-KELLY CO, 

 AVEB MH. 



from both industries to the 

 manufacturers. It seems rea- 

 sonable to allow the dealer and 

 consumer to get lined up on the 

 present base of sawmill prices. 



It has been estimated that 

 twenty per cent of the re- 

 cent advance in lumber comes 

 through short stock resulting 

 from the floods, and fifteen per 

 cent through speculative buy- 

 ing. The balance, sixty-five per 

 cent, is probably due to a 

 healthy increase in demand. 



While the average manufac- 

 turer is probably now realizing 

 a fair profit on his investment, 

 it behooves him to let the im- 

 provement in market conditions 

 be a healthy one rather than an 

 inflated jump in prices, as any 

 pronounced change in business 

 conditions other than that along 

 natural lines will surely sooner 

 or later result in a correspond- 

 ing hardship to him. 



The High Cost of Living 



Some satisfaction can be derived from a detailed report just com- 

 piled by the Federal Bureau of Labor covering the cost of living 

 during the last ten years from the fact that the all-important item 

 of smoked bacon has actually decreased in price by the astounding 

 amount of one-tenth of one per cent. It is a known fact that bacon 

 is about the most substantial of any of the meats consumed by the 

 general public, and in view of the conditions disclosed, it would appear 

 to be a pretty good idea for the long-suffering public to become con- 

 sumers conclusively of this article of food. 



That some such course is necessary is shown by further figures in 

 the report which covers thirty-two states, in which it is seen that 

 sixteen important articles of food as well as coal, comprising about 

 two-thirds of the workingman 's needs, have risen in value very mate- 

 rially. On June 15, 1912, fourteen out of fifteen articles of food 

 were higher than the year before, and ten had advnnced in the last 

 ten years more than fifty per cent over the average retail price for 

 the ten-year period of 1890 to 1899. The rise in meat values in a 

 great many eases has been so marked that in several instances meat 

 merchants have actually suspended business because of their inability 

 to buy at a price which would enable them to sell within the means of 

 the consumer. The price of meat has no direct bearing upon the lum- 

 ber business unless it be that loggers in the South employing oxen in 

 their operations might consider the meat consuming market as a possi- 

 ble source of revenue. However, any marked increase in a national 



