04 PEKSID]-:>T1AL ADDRESS SFXTIO>' T. 



as desert — the Kalahari — and the central part, known as the 

 Karroo, though much more fully occupied, is not xevy different 

 from the farming- point of view; they are both suitable for 

 grazing, but the number of sheep (n^ cattle that can be safely 

 carried is small, on account of the risk of drought. It may be 

 that in time, with the suitable provision for winter feeding 

 of animals, for deep ploughing and other new methods, the 

 productiveness of the country will be increased, but it is a 

 most striking fact that under the S5^stem now in vogue 

 considerable stretches of Central South Africa are replete with 

 iuhabitants. Although there are only one or two to the square 

 niile, not only is there no immigration, but increase in popula- 

 tion drives some of the inhabitants to emigTate to more fertile 

 districts in the neighbourhood. The area of the worst poverty 

 practically coincides with the area in which population fell 

 off between the censuses of 1904 and 1911. We thus find the 

 Malthusiau problem in an acute stage in a country far more 

 thinly peopled than the Highlands of Scotland. 



In the Union as a whole, the proportion of whites — about 

 20 per cent. — showed no perceptible change between 1904 and 

 1911, the two races increasing at just about the same rate. 

 However, the registration of natives is not quite complete, and 

 as oversights were probably less at the later census than at 

 the earlier, this would make the natives appear to have a some- 

 what greater rate of increase than they really have. Their 

 birth-rate is moderately high, and they are a good deal aff'ected 

 bj' disease ; malaria is endemic, and the diseases that usually 

 follow contact with Europeans are rife. Still, the native races 

 are healthy enough to maintain themselves aud progress. 

 There was no immigration to speak of in the years immediately 

 preceding the war. The war period was, of course, abnormal, 

 but in view of the economic situation, and of the steady growth 

 of nationalist feeling, it does not seem likely that any 

 considerable emigration from England will take place in the 

 future — not enough, that is, to aff'ect the racial situation 

 much. The most important statistical feature, if it turns out 

 to be more than a temporary fluctuation, is that the white 

 birth-rate is falliug. In view of the war period, the figures 

 must be received with caution, but they actually show a fall 

 from above 32 in 1911 to below 28 per thousand in 1918 and 

 27 in 1919. A few more years should suffice to show how much 

 importance is to be attached to these figures. The death-rate 

 is low, and cannot be reduced much, if at all, further, so the 

 natural increase of ]3opulation is now tending to be less than 

 formerly, and it is not supplemented by immigration. Thus 

 there seems no prospect that South Africa will become any 

 more " white " than it is at present. If it is to become so, it 

 can only, I think, be by some deliberate act of policy on a 

 heroic scale. 



If complete racial mixture is to be the future of South 

 Africa, we might look to Jamaica as an illustration of its fate. 

 There the whites constitute a small aristocracy, and there are 

 fifty coloured people for one white. But then the climate of 

 South Africa is much more favourable for Europeans than that 

 of Jamaica, so that the analogy breaks down. 



