500 Report S.A.A. Advancement of Science. 



When we turn to the excess, we find that the average per 

 thousand of European Births over Deaths in the 34 towns is 19.06, 

 considerably higher than any other country which has been considered, 

 while the Coloured excess is only 6.8, which is slightly better than 

 Ireland. One cannot too strongly emphasize these figures. It means 

 that every year 19 Europeans remain alive m addition to every 

 thousand European inhabitants, as compared to 6 to every 1000 

 Coloured, and when we go back to the increase of the population in 

 the whole Colony for the last 13 years, we find that the European 

 population has increased by 51.19 per cent., while the Coloured have 

 only increased 34.63. It will doubtless be contended with truth that 

 a large amount of this is owing to immigration, but, apart altogether 

 from the question of immigration, simply on the excess of Births over 

 Deaths, on the figures of 1904, the Europeans are increasing twice 

 as quickly as the Coloured people. I have made a calculation, based 

 on the growth between 1891 and 1904, as disclosed by the census 

 figures, and calculating the same increase to be maintained, in less 

 than 100 years the European population will equal the Coloured. 

 This is an exceedingly interesting and notable point, and I may at 

 once state that I was very much surprised in the course of my investi- 

 gations to discover this fact, because one hears so much of the 

 Coloured danger to the Cape Colony and how quickly the natives are 

 increasing, and how they must inevitably swamp us in the end, 

 whereas there is absolutely no ground for alarm of this kind, as I 

 have already shown the Europeans are increasing very much more 

 rapidly than the Coloured people. 



On turning to the Statistical Register for 1903, if the figures 

 given there are accurate, the result is even more astonishing. I give 

 the figures in Annexure " E," and it will be noticed that the average 

 excess of Births over Deaths for the years 1900, 1901, and 1902 was 

 5,782 European and 2,250 Coloured, showing that the European races 

 in these 3 years at any rate increased nearly 3 times as fast as the 

 Coloured, simply from the excess of Births, without taking immigra- 

 tion into account at all. These figures are so extraordinary that I 

 hesitate to quote them, and I can only state that my authority is the 

 Statistical Register for 1903. 



Turning to the question of immigration, I find that in the 5 years 

 ended December 31st, 1903, 75,846 more people arrived by steamer 

 in the Cape Colonv than left. How many of these remained in the 

 Cape Colony, and how many went to the Transvaal and the North, it 

 is difficult to say. English figures show that for the same period 

 151,802 people left Great Britain for South Africa. As pointed out 

 before, the actual increase of Europeans in the 13 years from 1891- 

 1904 was 192,986, and we also notice that in 1904, which there is 

 no reason to believe was not an average year, the excess of Births 

 over Deaths was 19.06 per cent, in the case of Europeans. Suppos- 

 ing that this excess of Birth Rate of 19.06 had been the annual 

 increase from 189T-1904. it v/ould have brought the European popula- 

 tion up to, roughly, 480,000, whereas it was actually 570,000. I 

 am therefore of opinion that I am not over-estimating when I 



