488 IOWA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 



ADDRESS BY C. F. CURTISS, 

 PRESIDENT INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK EXPOSITION. 



Gentlemen: 



At the outset I wish to express my appreciation of the kind of organi- 

 zation you have here. The first time, I believe, in the history of agricul- 

 ture in America that we have a real organization in a broad, effective 

 way, and in a fair-minded, liberal way, such as to really express a stand 

 for the agricultural interests of the United States. Its platform is broad 

 enough for every farmer to stand upon squarely with both feet, and fair 

 enough to function with every other industry, and that is the kind of an 

 organization that we need. 



Now, what of the future of agriculture and the livestock industry? As 

 I approach the question I am reminded somewhat of the Negro porter 

 who was asked by a passenger to change a twenty-dollar bill. "Boss," 

 said the colored man, "if I could change $20 I wouldn't be here." 



I am free to admit my inability to predict the future of business and 

 agricultural conditions, but I think there are some things that stand out 

 clearly. One of the first and foremost is that the price of agricultural 

 products is bound to be depressed more than the cost of production; that 

 the prices of agricultural products will come down sooner than the cost 

 of production will come down. In fact, prices have already fallen some-, 

 what, while the cost of production has gone up, and we are confronted 

 with a year of high prices, so far as costs are concerned. 



There are other conditions which are relatively clear. There is going 

 to be a narrower margin of profit during the period of this readjustment 

 than we have had in the past. That margin may be very small. It may 

 disappear entirely on a good many products while we are going through 

 this period of price readjustment. We had every reason to believe — and 

 did believe — that when the war closed there would be a very large for- 

 eign demand for the agricultural products of this country, especially the 

 meat products. When Mr. Hoover came back he gave out the word that 

 the foreign nations must depend upon this country for the large ma- 

 jority of their meat products. Similar reports were made from other 

 quarters, but some unexpected things happened. 



In the first place, those countries were practically bankrupt. They had 

 no producing power, they had no credit, and credit has not even yet been 

 extended to them. Then another unexpected thing developed, the rate of 

 foreign exchange on their money made it impracticable, impossible, for 

 them to buy products under existing conditions. Then the foreign de- 

 mand fell off almost entirely for our meat products. We haven't had the 

 foreign market we anticipated, and with the increase in meat production 

 in 1918 it left us with a surplus which necessarily sold at a lower price. 



How long these conditions will continue, hpw long it will be before the 

 foreign countries come back and purchase our products, we cannot tell, 

 but I think it is reasonably clear that they aren't going to be very ex- 

 tensive purchasers until they are in a position to sell us something and 

 thereby readjust the rate of exchange. When they get back upon their 

 feet in an industrial way and have something to sell, to equalize the rate 



