596 IOWA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 



ZO per cent, or 100 per cent over the 1914 live stock level? Of course 

 Uiey hesitated a little, but I finally induced them to write an estimate 

 on a piece of paper and they handed them in to me. I'll tell you what 

 they estimated. But first I'll ask you all to set in your own mind as to 

 what the price level will be six years from now. Will it be 10 per cent 

 over 1914 — the price! before the war — or will it be 50 per cent over? 

 Just set a price in your own mind; I'll not ask you to put it on paper. 

 I asked my father this morning the same question, and he seemed some- 

 what indignant as to why I should ask that question; he seemed to think 

 it was foolish. (Laughter.) Finally 1 told him that I had got nine econo- 

 mists to answer it, and he gave me his opinion. If you all have a figure 

 in mind, I'll say that these nine gentlemen in Chicago varied all the way 

 from 20 per cent over 1914 to 65 per cent over. My father, by the way, 

 estimated 25 per cent over 1914; my own estimate was 60 per cent over 

 1914, so that you see there was a considerable difference of opinion in 

 our own family. I also asked them at that time what the price' would 

 be next May — that was in November — and six of them thought that the 

 price level next May would be 15 per cent below what it was at that 

 time; one had as low as 40 per cent under what it was last November. 

 As a matter of fact the price level right now is 9 per cent over last No- 

 vember, with every prospect that by May it will be 10 per cent over. 



In this connection I want to call your attention to industrial com- 

 modities to show you how they have gone up since 1914 in comparison 

 to farm products. Crude petroleum in 1914 was $1.75 per barrel. It is 

 now $5.50. This is an increase of 215 per cent. Pig iron was $10.25 a ton 

 back in 1914, and is now $40. It has nearly quadrupled in price — 390 per 

 cent. Coke, which is used very extensively in the manufacture of pig 

 iron and other industrial commodities in the east, cost $1.90 a ton in 

 1914, but has now advanced to $6. Print cloth has advanced from 3%c 

 a yard back in 1914 to iB^/^c. Copper, which has advanced less than 

 other metals, is now 19%c, as compared to IS^^c in 1914. Copper agrees 

 more nearly with cattle and hogs than any other industrial commodity. 

 The average price of all these industrial commodities is just about three 

 times the 1914 level. 



Take the corn prices and compare them with 1914. The price today 

 is $1.47, as compared with 69c in 1914 before the war broke out. Thir- 

 teen-hundred-pound steers on the Chicago market are $14, as compared 

 to $9 in 1914 — an increase of 55 per cent. Butter has doubled; but you 

 take all of your agricultural products together and they have on an aver- 

 age doubled, as compared with industrial commodities which are just 

 about three times the 1914 level. Wages in New York factories are 154 

 per cent higher— more than doubled over the price in 1914. Farm hand 

 wages — we think they have gone up, but they haven't quite doubled. 

 You may think they are high enough, but you must remember that your 

 own wages are to a large extent set by the wages paid your farm hands. 



Bank clearings, which are a great index of industrial conditions, have 

 increased 154 per cent — a little more than doubled. Before I get into 

 the main part of my subject I would like to say a few words on the gen- 

 eral cattle situation. I just finished preparing for Wallaces' Farmer a 



