520 IOWA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 



market has ever experienced. This saddens men's hearts, and makes the 

 air doubly gloomy. It is time to be optimistic, the time to see a beckon- 

 ing light in the dark ahead. It is a wrong time to get shaky, nervous, lose 

 control, and, like a pessimist, blow out the beckoning light of the optimist. 



Not nearly so many cattle went to the feed lots this fall as usual. 

 Only about two-thirds as many went from Omaha, and they were lighter 

 than usual, due to the severe previous winter. In August, September and 

 October about 80 per cent as many cattle as usual went from all markets 

 into the corn belt. About 66 per cent as many sheep went on feed in 

 the mid-west, altho the Colorado feed lots are pretty well replenished. 

 It appears, however, that there will be much less meat made in the corn 

 belt than usual, and this argues for a better future. 



However, the question of employment is a big factor from the con- 

 sumer's standpoint. Things are looking rather dark in New England, 

 T^ith the depression prevailing in the textile, shoe and other industries. 

 The automobile centers are at low ebb. All these things mean that the 

 average consumer may not eat liberally of meat, especially beef, as we in 

 the west would like to see him, and this simply because he hasn't the 

 wherewithal to purchase as freely as before. 



The fatter heavy cattle may possibly be in good demand, but it does 

 not take many of such sort to topple that market clear over and drive 

 it down to the level of the medium stuff, so there is danger ahead that 

 way. Usually the trade that gets this prime stuff is well able to buy, 

 but the trade is very limited, and an oversupply even tho slight raises 

 havoc with the price. One very shrewd market observer, an old-timer, 

 told me that it was mighty poor policy for cattle feeders to overfeed 

 for the fancy prime market. He emphasized that on a down market 

 there was always a tendency to do this. He further emphasized that the 

 average feeder would be better off to go ahead and sell his cattle when 

 ready than to attempt to hold for a month or two and thus "knock the 

 props out from under the prime market," because his fellow feeders also 

 in some degree hold, and it doesn't take many extra holders to turn the 

 "good market" relatively in a "deuce of a poor one." There is a good 

 thought in this proposition — think it over! 



I interviewed a number of market men, packers and others during 

 the International, at the time when the cattle market was "indigo," or 

 deep blue, and the average prediction was for about 12 cents for fat cattle 

 of 60 per cent dressing grade, Chicago, in April this coming year. 



The hide market affects our fat cattle market most markedly. Hides, 

 No. 1 native steer, have dropped from 51 cents down to as low as 14 cents 

 per pound. With a 70-pound hide like we take from our experimental 

 1,300-pound steers (and this is rather light), this means a difference of 

 $25.90 per steer, or practically $2 per hundredweight on the live steer. 

 A 10-cent difference in hides makes a difference on foot of about 50 

 cents a hundredweight in this case. Surely hides are too low now, and 

 should advance — but when? 



A year ago steer fat sold by packers in Omaha for 48 cents. In late 

 November it was worth 8 cents. A 1,000-pound steer, average, at Omaha, 



