32 STATE BOARD OF AGRICULTURE. 



pretty general increase in the decade preceding the war, and a general 

 decrease in the decade including it, but between '70 and '80 the move- 

 ment was slightly downward, instead of slightly upward as in Washte- 

 naw. The maximum of rural population in these more easterly districts 

 would appear to have been reached about 18G0, while in Michigan there 

 is reason to think that but for the war the increase would have continued 

 until about 1870. 



The reasons for this diminution of rural population are not very hard 

 to find. Much has been said of a mad rush to cities, and the movement 

 has often been spoken of as if it were altogether a kind of dissipation, 

 like going to the saloon. But if there were no solider ground for the 

 migration than this we should find the migrants plunged into pauperism 

 and vice after they get to the cities, instead of pursuing useful and 

 remunerative labor as is ordinarily the case. The real causes of the 

 decrease of rural population are chiefly economic, and so familiar that 

 I need only mention them. They are : 



1. The improvement of farm machinery enabling the same work to 

 be done with one-half or one-third the number of hands it would have 

 required twenty years ago, and 



2. The facility of transportation and communication enabling trade 

 and manufactures to concentrate in the large towns. 



The first of these changes has diminished the number of men needed 

 upon the farm, the second has brought the farmer into more direct rela- 

 tion with the city consumer and producer and partly taken away the 

 function of the small local dealer and manufacturer. 



Are we to expect this decrease to continue or is it nearing its limits? 

 The ansAver to this question must be somewhat speculative, as depending 

 upon conditions which we cannot foresee, but it seems to me that there 

 are several plausible reasons for holding that the movement is likely 

 to cease. 



In the first place it seems to be slewing up already. In Washtenaw 

 county at least it was only about half as great during the last decade as 

 during the one preceding. 



In the second place there are economic reasons why it should slow up 

 and eventually cease. Farming is already becoming more intensive, 

 aiming to get more out of a given area of land by putting more thought 

 and labor upon it. This tendency must evidently continue as the popula- 

 tion of the country increases and the new land available for agriculture 

 disappears. Already, as we have seen, certain kinds of intensive agri- 

 culture, such as fruit, garden and dairy farming, have caused a growth 

 of rural population in certain parts of the State. If there is anything in 

 political economy it would seem that we must be about to enter upon a 

 period of higher land values and more thorough culture. 



Thirdly, the social attractiveness of the country is increasing, and will 

 continue to increase. The great social drawback of the country has been 

 is®lation, as hurry has been and is the great drawback of the city. Now 

 nothing seems clearer than that isolation will nowhere be excessive during 

 the twentieth century. Good roads, electric cars, the telephone, the 

 bicycle and free delivery of mail are already making this reproach a 

 thing of the past; and these facilities of intercourse are sure to stimulate 

 every kind of rural social organization. 



Indeed the increasing press of life will probably render the elbowroom 



