380 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[September i, 1902. 



CRUDE RUBBER PRODUCTION AND PRICES. 



T'^HE annual circular issued from Liverpool by the import- 

 ing firm of Hecht, Levis & Kahn embodies the results 

 of a careful attempt to estimate the world's production 

 and consumption of India-rubber, and also the total 

 visible supply on July i. The figures given, compared with 

 those previously issued by the same firm are : 



1S98-99. 1899-igoo. igoo-01. 1901-02* 



Total production fans 52.192 53.348 52,864 52,885 



Total consumption 48,783 48,352 5'. '36 50.2°' 



Visible supply, July 1 4.871 7,869 ^-941 ^.736 



In many cases, of course, it is impossible, in such estimates, 

 to calculate shrinkage between producing and consuming mar- 

 kets, and there are other elements of inaccuracy, but the above 

 are offered as approximate amounts. Again, the " ton " is a 

 variable quantity, in different countries, but accepting the met- 

 rical ton of 1000 kilograms as the standard, the estimate for 

 the past twelve months would read : 



Total production 116,590,271 pounds. 



Total consumption 110,673,125 



Visible supply, July 1 14,850,186 " 



The Para crop shows an increase of S}i per cent, over last 

 year, whereas the increase in the preceding year was only 2)4 

 per cent. Besides, the recent increase was principally in Para 

 grades, while the increase in 1900-01 was almost wholly in 

 Caucho. Messrs. Hecht, Levis & Kahn's comments on their 

 statistical showing follow : 



PARA KINDS. 



Crop. — In spite of low prices and all forecasts to the con- 

 trary, the crop of 1901-02 shows an increase of Syi per cent. 

 The receipts of Peruvian kinds amounted to 3575 tons, being 

 an increase of only 1^ per cent, on previous season, which 

 yielded 31 X per cent, over 1899- 1900. 



Progress. — Shipments from Pard to America during the 

 season were 14.057 tons, and to Europe 15,880 tons. While in 

 1900 01 America took 2700 tons more than Europe, in 1901-02 

 the shipments to Europe were 1800 tons in excess of those to 

 America, which is accounted for by the collapse of a certain 

 large concern in New York, whose unsold stocks of 1500 tons 

 were thrown on the market. 



Values. — After a final effort of the above mentioned firm, 

 which advanced the price of Fine in August to 3^. lod., values 

 declined almost without interruption to 3.?. 4^ii. in January. 

 The bulls, who in view of the financial crisis in Pard, confi- 

 dently anticipated a shortage of 10 to 20 per cent, in the crop, 

 lost heart when the arrivals in Pard during the first half of the 

 season showed already a surplus of 2350 tons, and this well 

 known New York concern, after striving hard during two years 

 to drive up and maintain prices artificially, was obliged to stop 

 payment. Pard thus being deprived of one of its largest sup- 

 porters, showed itself willing to meet buyers, and prices fur- 

 ther declined until they touched y. at the end of February. At 

 the beginning of March, on rumors of a sharp falling off in re- 

 ceipts, fresh speculators entered the market, and an advance of 

 2</. to ^d. took place, only however to be lost again in April, 

 the season closing with hard cure Fine at 2s. ii>^(/., being the 

 lowest level since 1894. 



Consumption. — While the total deliveries in Europe have 

 been 1400 tons in excess of previous season, those in the 

 United States show a decrease of about 400 tons. This de- 



crease is, however, more apparent than real, as the American 

 stocks at the beginning of the season were fully 1000 tons 

 more than declared, and consequently this quantity ought to 

 be added to the 1901-02 deliveries. Thus also the visible sup- 

 ply of Para kinds, instead of an apparent increase of 400 tons, 

 would show an actual decrease of 600 tons, and as the Receipts 

 were 2357 tons larger, the Deliveries during the twelve months 

 under review have exceeded those of the previous year by about 

 3000 tons. On the other hand it will be noted that the deliv- 

 eries of Mediums show a decrease of about 2000 tons, which 

 indicates that the lower prices have enabled manufacturers to 

 use Pard where previously they had employed other kinds, and 

 for the same reason consumers have probably bought Pard be- 

 yond their requirements, so that part of the 3000 tons may 

 still exist as an invisible supply. 



Prospects. — It is reported that the new Pard crop will be 

 an early one, but there are no indications that it will prove to 

 be smaller than its predecessor. On the other hand, consump- 

 tion does not promise to show any marked increase, and 

 though it is not likely that prices will decline much below the 

 present basis, the supplies seem to be sufficient to prevent, for 

 the present, any permanent advance in values. All things con- 

 sidered, we are likely to see in the near future fairly steady 

 markets at about 3^., with small fluctuations below and above. 

 mediums. 



Imports show a considerable falling off, and throughout the 

 season the supply of the better grades has not been equal to 

 the demand. This is chiefly attributable to unfavorable con- 

 ditions at the producing centers. Moreover, there is no doubt 

 that the decline in values has had a direct influence on the 

 production of certain Medium descriptions. Antwerp is the 

 only market where the season's arrivals have not been behind 

 those of the previous year, and this may be due partly to the 

 reserve stocks in the Congo stations and partly to the low cost 

 of production in the Belgian Congo. The restrictions imposed 

 by the authorities in the Sierra Leone districts have been effec- 

 tual in greatly improving the quality of the rubber, which ac- 

 counts for the comparatively high value it has commanded. 



Liverpool. — Direct imports show an increase of 210 tons in 

 Brazilian kinds (comprising Ceara, Pernambuco, Mangabeira, 

 and Manigoba) and a decrease of 1080 tons Africans, mostly in 

 Gold Coast and Ivory Coast descriptions. The indirect im- 

 ports of Africans also show a decrease of 180 tons. Compared 

 with last year, we have to record a shrinkage of 1050 tons in 

 the imports and of 820 tons in the deliveries of all kinds of 

 Mediums. To-day's stocks amount to 585 tons, largely con- 

 sisting of low unsaleable sorts. 



London. — Arrivals have been reduced from 2598 tons in 

 1899-1900 and 1604 tons in 1900-01 to 956 tons this season. 

 This decrease falls chiefly on East and West Indian sorts. Of 

 Penang and Rangoon only 234 tons were imported, against 420 

 tons in the previous year. The decline in prices has brought 

 out more buyers for these descriptions, and stocks are only 45 

 tons against 214 tons. Arrivals of Borneo were only 84 tons 

 against 214 tons, and stocks consist chiefly of inferior kinds. 

 The arrivals of West Indian sorts have suffered through revo- 

 lutions and wars in the producing countries, and were only 166 

 tons against 385 tons last year. Fine qualities were in con- 

 stant demand. From Mozambique 182 tons against 202 tons 

 were imported, and fine qualities found ready buyers at ex- 



