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THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[February 1, 1913. 



In the case of rubber the state of affairs, as we have seen it, is 

 totally different. In the first place, the methods of polymeriza- 

 tion are still in their infancy; we have no means of controlling 

 its magnitude, or of assuring its uniformity. The chemical 

 methods of today are wholly insutTicient tor the solving of 

 this problem. 



Synthetic rubber enthusiasts have either overlooked or ignored 

 with supreme indifference the very important fact, that in the 

 year 1916 the price of raw rubber must of necessity drop very 

 considerably. It is estimated (and from all accounts the esti- 

 mate is a conservative one) that by the year 1916 the Eastern 

 plantations alone will be able to produce 100.000 tons per year, 

 although there are two factors which have not been taken into 

 account in making the estimate, which might have a very serious 

 effect on the future of the plantations. These two factors are: 

 first, diseases of the trees, and secondly, the labor problem. 



The chances of the trees becoming infected either with a 

 disease or insect pest is probably very small, as the bulk of the 

 plantations are under very careful supervision, and special pre- 

 cautions are being taken to prevent such an occurrence. The 

 labor question seems to be of more serious consequence, as the 

 Malay coolie is of a rather independent nature. Nevertheless, 

 it is highly probable that the estimate is not exaggerated. Even 

 today one repeatedly hears statements being made that the 

 plantations that are producing rubber could, if necessary, put 

 their product on the London market at 25 cents per pound. This 

 is possibly slightly exaggerated, but not very much so. One has 

 only to look at the dividends now being paid by some of the 

 Eastern plantations to realize that there is a certain amount of 

 truth in this statement. As things stand today, supposing it 

 were possible to market synthetic rubber at SO cents a pound in 

 great quantities, the competition with plantation rubbers would 

 not be very noticeable, as their output is relatively small ; but 

 in 1916 the case will be quite different. Even supposing that 

 the demand for rubber keeps on increasing, the plantations will 

 still be in a position to supply at least half of the demand. There 

 are, furthermore, enormous opportunities for the plant physiol- 

 ogist in the cultivation and production of rubber. So far very 

 little has been done in this direction, as the plantation industry 

 is still in its infancy; but it seems more than probable that care- 

 ful experimentation will enable means to be devised whereby 

 the yield of rubber per tree can be materially increased. 



In the case of the sugar beet this increase in the yield has 

 been accomplished with surprising success. It has been possible 

 by careful methods of cultivation and selection of the most ad- 

 vantageous conditions of soil, to raise the yield of sugar in the 

 beet from 3 to 18 per cent. Undoubtedly, in the case of rubber, 

 the problem is more complex than in the case of the sugar beet, 

 but this field of investigation is still wafting for the pioneer, 

 and I cannot help feeling that the possibilities are indeed large. 



It must be seen, even on the supposition that synthetic rubber 

 were today a commercial possibility, and that an article could 

 be produced equal to the plantation product, that the struggle 

 for commercial supremacy would necessarily be a fierce one, 

 with the advantage very much in favor of the plantation product. 



In the case of indigo, the synthetic product had practically 

 no competition to meet whatsoever. The production of natural 

 indigo had been carried out under the crudest possible fashion, 

 and the methods of obtaining the dye from the plant were even 

 more crude. For some extraordinary reason, although the pro- 

 duction of this dye stuff was of such extreme value to the textile 

 industry, it always remained in the hands of the ignorant na- 

 tives. Had the same amount of energy and skill been applied 

 to the indigo plant that is now being applied to plantation rub- 

 ber, the victory of synthetic indigo would probably still be in 

 doubt. It must be granted that the commercial synthesis of 

 indigo was the crowning technical achievement of the nineteenth 

 century, but it must also be acknowledged that its fight for 



supremacy over the natural product was materially aided by the 

 shortsightedness of indigo planters. Rubber planters, on the 

 other hand, have been keenly alive to the large possibilities 

 which are to be derived from scientific methods of cultivation 

 and production, and they have got such an infinite lead over 

 the efforts of the synthetic chemist, as to be in little danger of 

 being vanquished for many decades to come. 



1 hope I have not been altogether unsuccessful in making 

 plain some of the difficulties that confront commercial synthetic 

 rubber. With our present-day chemical methods it would be 

 well nigh impossible to assure a uniform synthetic product. 

 Within the next few years the Eastern plantations will be in a 

 position to supply half the demand for ruliber, and accordingly 

 would be in a position to wage a very stubborn fight against any 

 synthetic product. Finally, it seems more than probable that 

 scientific investigations will enable the planter to increase the 

 yield of rubber per tree, and thus put him in a still better posi- 

 tion to combat the synthetic article. 



I do not want to make such a rash statement as to assert that 

 synthetic rubber will never be a commercial possibility, but I 

 should be greatly surprised if there is anybody engaged in the 

 rubber industry today who will have the opportunity of seeing 

 synthetic rubber in open competition with the natural product. 



GERMAN ANALYTICAL RUBBER PROGRESS. 



Several interesting booklets have been received from the 

 Henriques Laboratory, Berlin, dealing with subjects which have 

 been recently dealt with by that institution. 



One of these, reprinted from the "Gummi-Zeitung," describes 

 a process for defining the nitrogenous sub-components and im- 

 purities in crude rubber. 



In a reprint from the "Tropenpflanzer," Dr. Frank's views on 

 synthetic rubber are reproduced. These had been dealt with in 

 The Indi.^ Rubber World of September, 1912, page 580. 



Another reprint from the "Tropenpflanzer" contains a paper 

 by Dr. F. Wohltmann, Director of the Agricultural Institute of 

 the University of Halle, upon "South American and East African 

 Rubber Soils." This interesting paper reproduces the analyses 

 of clays from the left and right banks of the River Acre ; as 

 well as from Tanga and Longusa, Ngambo, Magunga. Morogoro, 

 and other East African points. 



THE WORLD'S EFFORTS TO RAISE COTTON. 



It is very natural with a staple like cotton, which is so neces- 

 sary to tlie welfare of mankind, that every considerable govern- 

 ment should seek, if possible, to raise its own supply. The 

 various European governments have long tried to devise meth- 

 ods of being independent — to some extent at least — of the Ameri- 

 can product. One-third of the world's supply of cotton comes 

 from Egypt and India; but notwithstanding this fact. England 

 has made constant efforts to develop a profitable production of 

 cotton in various other territories under English control, and 

 Russia has expended a great deal of effort in the attempt to 

 produce cotton profitably in Central Asia. These various at- 

 tempts have been successful as far as producing cotton is con- 

 cerned, but they have not been altogether successful in producing 

 it at a figure that can compete with the cost of its production 

 in the United States ; and when the price of cotton in our South- 

 ern States has been low these rival efforts in other countries 

 have been attended with much discouragement. 



In the last 25 years the average export price of cotton from 

 the Southern States has been 9.3 cents — the lowest price was 5.5c. 

 in 1899, and the highest price during the last 25 years was in 

 1910, when the export price rose to 19.7 cents. 



Replete with information for rubber manufacturers — Mr. 

 Pearson's "Crude and Compounding Ingredients." 



