462 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[June 1, 1913. 



tion; and the Agricultural Department of Malaya, if they have 

 not already done so, might study the question with advantage. 

 FUTURE SUPPLIES. 



It has been suggested to me that you will be interested in an 

 estimate of the supplies that are to be obtained from plantation 

 sources, and it is obvious that a paper of this kind would be 

 incomplete without it. It is not easy to obtain reliable statistics 

 of the cultivation in all the tropical countries in which rubber is 

 grown. Naturally, the yields vary considerably and the high 

 price has undoubtedly encouraged more vigorous tapping on 

 many plantations than would have been considered advisable if 

 the price had been less tempting. I know fields where from 800 

 to 900 pounds an acre have been collected for two or three suc- 

 cessive years, but I question if such high yields can be main- 

 tained. A first-class, well-managed plantation may be expectec' 

 to yield an average of 500 to 600 pounds an acre for as many 

 years as our experience guides us, but we must assume a con- 

 siderably lower average from all plantations. The area under 

 rubber in the Malay Peninsula at the end of 1911 amounted to 

 542,877 acres, and as far as I can ascertain the total area under 

 this cultivation in the world amounts to about 1,000.000 acres. 

 We know that during the half year ending June 30, 1912, the 

 exports from Malaya amounted to 9,038 tons, and from Ceylon 

 to 2,252 tons. Allowing for the output from India, Sumatra, 

 Java, etc., I estimate the total output of plantation rublier will be 

 from 25,000 to 30,000 tons for the whole year. The annual in- 

 crease will be fairly steady, and at about six years from date the 

 production is likely to amount to 100,000 tons per annum or, in 

 other words, equal the total consumption of rubber during tlic 

 year ending June 30 last. 



During the year ending June 30 (1912), with rubber averaging 

 5/2 (say a dollar and a quarter) a pound, consumption — accord- 

 ing to the figures recently published by Messrs. Hecht — increased 

 by 25,482 tons. I am aware that this statement has been chal- 

 lenged by other authorities. We are told that they are eminent 

 authorities, but as they unfortunately published their views 

 anonymously, we are obliged to take their word for it. 



The most pessimistic of these that I have read, calculates the 

 increase at about 14,000 tons, and if we accept this figure in 

 preference to Messrs. Hechts' (I don't know why we should), 

 and assume that this increase will be maintained, the require- 

 ments six years hence will amount to 184,000 tons, so that the 

 struggle between plantation and wild rubber does not appear to 

 be very imminent. 



I have now told you as well as I can what I believe to be the 

 immediate course of events. To you gentlemen, who are manu- 

 facturers, I would say this, whether our achievements will lead 

 to prosperity for our industry will depend entirely on the growth 

 of your industry. Speaking personally of my first few years' 

 experience in tropical agriculture, I was engaged in planting 

 cofTee. At the outset of my career in this line, the price in local 

 currency and weights was $40 a picul and I saw it fall to $16. 

 This experience is put in the shade by that of my brother plant- 

 ers who were interested in pepper and cinchona. Our mis- 

 fortunes were due to the fact that an increased supply did not 

 lead to any considerable increase in the demand for these 

 products. We have yet to hear of anyone who shakes the pepper 

 castor more vigorously over his potatoes owing to a slump in 

 the price of pepper, or increases his dose of quinine because the 

 quantity of cinchona offered at the auction sale is in excess of 

 anticipations. 



The future of the rubber industry depends on whether the 

 planter can confidently anticipate manufacturers digesting the 

 increased supplies. 



A well-managed, favorably situated, mature plantation can pro- 

 duce with a handsome profit at 2/6 (60 cents) a pound. It must 

 be remembered that the increased demand depends on the new 

 uses to which it may be put, the increased demand for uses to 



which it has hitherto been put. and the supply demanded by 

 making good the losses by wear. 



As an illustration of what I mean. I will take the case of solid 

 and cushion tires which if not now, will perhaps shortly absorb 

 more rubber than is used for any other purpose. If we assume 

 that 1,000,000 of these tires are used through the world this year, 

 and only the same number next year, the amount of rubber re- 

 quired on this account will, other things being equal, be only that 

 amount necessary to replace the loss involved by wear and tear. 



Tlie irregularity of the cost has undoubtedly militated against 

 its use in some directions. For instance, I am informed that 

 whereas electric light mains and leads were in the past invariably 

 insulated with rubber, paper insulation has been substituted in 

 many cases. Experts tell me that rubber is preferable for this 

 purpose, and no doubt a number of instances will occur to you 

 gentlemen, where it would be preferable, if the price admitted of 

 this use. 



This brings me to the crucial question from the planter's point 

 of view, and a question which my present audience is in a better 

 position to make an authoritative reply to than any audience 

 previously addressed by a planter. 



We can guarantee an enormously increased supply of rubber 

 and will in future years be content with a much lower price than 

 now prevails. What we want to know is whether there is to be 

 a glut in the market, and a scramble to sell, with every successive 

 increase in the supply. Perhaps, gentlemen, you can allay the 

 misgivings of those planters with the weaker faith in the future 

 of the industry, and can send them, through me, assurances which 

 will encourage them to hope for a continuance, even if in a modi- 

 fied degree, of the prosperity we have recently enjoyed — a pros- 

 perity which, I believe, has never been rivalled by any agricul- 

 tural industry in all the history of the world. 



MANURING RUBBER TREES. 



EuROrE.\N manufacturers and Asiatic importers of fertilizers 

 have been zealously pushing their commodities with the planting 

 public. The difficulty seems to lie in knowing which forms of 

 manures are best suited to particular localities, and whether the 

 outlay will be repaid by increased rapidity of growth or larger 

 yield of latex. Experiments on the government plantations at 

 Kuala Lumpur (Federal Malay States) established the fact that 

 any kind of manure stimulated growth, and that lime was well 

 suited for trees on the soil selected. 



It is understood that further experiments are being conducted 

 at Kuala Lumpur, and that a more extended series of trials 

 will take place at Teluk Anson. While such experiments are of 

 value from a general standpoint, the need has been pointed out 

 of a certain amount of experimental manuring to ascertain 

 the qualities best suited to individual estates. The opinion has 

 been expressed that if fertilizers have anything like the efifect on 

 yield that they have been shown to have on growth, it may be 

 anticipated that manuring will be largely adopted in Malaya. 



PARA RUBBER TREE IN CEYLON. 



In the course of an interview with the Kandy representative 

 of the "Times of Ceylon," Mr. H. A. Wickham, the father of the 

 rubber planting industry, lately expressed himself as follows : 



"The Para rubber trees in Ceylon plantations are better than 

 the trees in the Amazons, and I am not surprised at it. If you 

 bring a product from one country to another possessing suitable 

 conditions and cultivate it, the exotic w-ill flourish in a remark- 

 able manner. Take, for instance, coflfee, an Eastern product 

 which was introduced into South America. You will not get 

 anything like the South American coffee in the East, and the 

 yield is abundant. The coffee grows in Brazil better than in its 

 native home. In the same way the Para rubber tree introduced 

 into the East from Western Equatoria, and finding favorable 

 conditions, has developed in a remarkable manner. The trees 

 here are nnicli hardier than in their own country. 



