128 JAPAN - MISCEIvI^ANEOUS 



(c) Price. — In the preceding pages we have indicated a few of the many- 

 causes of the rapid rise in price of this article of which the consumption is 

 so great. But it would be too much to attribute the regrettable result ex- 

 clusively to the above causes, for there are others not apparent on a super- 

 jficial examination and that no purely scientific investigation reveals. Ja- 

 panese economists have been and are still searching for the causes and the 

 best remedies to be applied. x\mong the many writers on the subject, we 

 shall mention Dr. Honda, one of the most prominent economists of Japan, 

 who, in an interesting article in the number of the review, Taiyo, for 

 August, 1912, wrote as follows : 



" There is generally a constant tendency for the prices of all commod- 

 ities to rise, and the prices of cereals, which have also to follow the viciss- 

 itudes of the market, cannot form an exception to the general rule. Con- 

 sequently, the question of the price of rice is an extremely large one. Its 

 Hmits, though originally determined by the conditions of supply and demand, 

 are also ajBfected by many other circumstances. 



Naturally, the increase in price is largely due to the import duties and 

 corresponds with their increase. But it depends also on the conditions under 

 which purchase and sale are now conducted on the rice exchanges. Account 

 must, therefore, be taken of these various circumstances. 



With regard to the customs tariffs, public opinion has already declared 

 unanimously in favour of their complete abolition. But the fluctuation of 

 supply and demand is not in itself sufficient to explain completely the 

 vertiginous rise in price of this grain. In judging of tliis constant ten- 

 dency to rise, we must remember that not only are there the producer 

 but also the middlemen to be considered, and also that the large agricul- 

 tural producers are at the same time speculators. We must also remember 

 that, above all, in recent years, the insufficiency of the means of transport 

 has become more and more evident and that little progress has been made 

 in the matter of the circulation of capital for purposes of agricultural pro- 

 duction. In the past, the farmer was content to produce and his crops 

 were offered on the market and sold at the prices of the day. Now the situ- 

 ation is very different. The farmer no longer limits himself to producing, but, 

 out of a desire of greater gain, he himself speculates in the price of his produce. 



It is not to be denied that, recently, the spirit of speculation has made 

 rapid progress among our farmers. It is scarcely to be regarded as astonish- 

 ing, since it is only a natural consequence of the present amount of specul- 

 ation on the stock exchange. 



The middlemen who trade in securities and grain are constantly send- 

 ing a large number of agents into all the provinces inviting and inciting 

 the farmers to speculation. The farmers easily allow themselves to be 

 persuaded by the often deceitful prospect of large gains to be made in the 

 future. And the same results would be produced even without this ac- 

 tion of the middlemen. The daily notices of sales at fixed terms of 

 themselves excite the spirit of speculation and among the centralisers of 

 produce, the hope of selling at higher prices. The latter then limit the 

 supply of rice on the market and this limitation suffices in itself to awake 



