FLUCTUATIONS IN PRICES AND WAGE? 



129 



the spirit of speculation among the producers. The action of the specul- 

 ators urging purchasers to buy of course makes the price rise. 



The two facts we have just mentioned, on the one hand, the instigation 

 to purchase and the limitation of the supply of rice, and, on the other, the 

 increased price, are logically connected as cause and effect. When they 

 have, in fact, kindled the farmers' desire of gain and awakened the spirit of 

 speculation by unprotected purchase, the large dealers need only hmit 

 the supply on the market. The incitement to purchase will be greater 

 and greater and the price wiU naturally rise at a vertiginous rate." 



These few words of the eminent economist are worthy of consideration, 

 for they suffice to show the fundamental cause of the rise in price of rice 

 in Japan. Let us add to these causes those already indicated, generally 

 purely economic or purely social, and we shall have at least an approximate, 

 if not a complete explanation, of this disquieting phenomenon. 



Let us now see what fluctuations there have been in the price of rice. 



Fluctuations in the Price of Rice between 18 83 and 1912. 



(Avcra'^e Annual Price on the Exchanges of Tokio and Osaka . 

 [in yen per koku). 



Taking 100 as the average price, we get the following corresponding 

 index numbers for the years 



1902 107 1908 135 



1903 121 1909 Ill 



1904 114 1910 115 



1905 112 1911 149 



1906 128 1912 176 



1907 142 



