August i, 1901.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER 'iVORLD 



337 



PROSPECTIVE RUBBER PRICES. 



IN a circular issued July 11, from Liverpool, Marius & Levy 

 say that as matters stand in Brazil, the rubber outlook is 

 a strong one. The crop for the year ended June 30 amounted 

 to 27,650 tons — an increase over the preceding year of 3.75 per 

 cent., which increase was mostly in Caucho. The crop figures 

 for four years have been : 



1897-98. 18^8-99. 1899-1900. igoo-oi. 



Tons 22,210 25.345 2t),66o 27.650 



The lower Amazon output has declined ; the Upriver pro- 

 duction was normal ; the Caucho yield was on a large scale, 

 compared with former years. The circular says: 



" We consider the actual crop now ending as a ' record ' of 

 production, which is the natural consequence of the ' over 

 trading ' and "booming time ' which occurred two years ago, 

 when everything was in favor of the rubber production, viz. : 

 Low rate of exchange, down 10 6d. per milreis ; high prices of 

 raw rubber on the consuming markets, reaching up to 45. <)iL 

 for fine Para. - - - 



" As there is a general increase in the consumption every 

 year, we are drawn to the conclusion that higher prices will be 

 seen very shortly for the raw material of all grades, and espe- 

 cially for the Brazilian crop." 



The circular continues : 



" There is a divergence of opinions, but the facts are positive. 

 Some rivers which we could name had their aviametitos (ship- 

 ments of goods) cut down by 50 and sometimes 70 per cent. ; 

 others like Rio Acre, a great center of production, had a simi- 

 lar reduction owing to the state of revolution which always ex- 

 ists there, and which restricts trade, business becoming too 

 risky. Numbers of ' rubber farms ' have been abandoned, and 

 numbers of rubber gatherers from the states of Ceaia, Para- 

 hyba, Rio Grande do Norte, etc., have returned to their native 

 countries without any intention of returning to the Amazon 

 river ; from private information we learn that 60,000 to 70,000 

 rubber gatherers of these states have not returned for the 

 gathering. 



'• Many people say that the financial crisis will force the 

 traders to push the rubber gatherers to increase the production 

 of rubber. Such theories are entertained by people who have 

 never been on the Amazon river or Pari islands; if they had 

 been there, they would judge that a seringueiro (rubber gath- 

 erer) cannot double the gathering for two reasons : 



(a) It is materially impossible. 



(b) He might try to increase on a small scale if it pays. 

 But as a matter of fact it does not pay at all ; he is, of course, 

 not willing to increase his work, the compensation being neg- 

 ative. 



" As a consequence of this state of affairs, the number of ex- 

 porters from Brazil will be considerably reduced, and there is 

 every possibility of the formation of a 'combine ' to keep rub- 

 ber at high prices, aided in this direction by the shortage of 

 crop which we estimate at 20 per cent, at the very least, and 

 this discrepancy of 3000 to 4000 tons will be confined to Upriver 

 and Island, 80 per cent, for Upriver, 20 per cent, for Island. 

 Hard cured, medium, and coarse are going to be very scarce, 

 and so far, no Congo sorts can replace fine Para. 



"Despite all the manipulation of 'bears' and 'bulls,' the 

 natural law of supply and demand will prevail. Trade is brisk 

 both in the United States and Europe, hence the demand will 

 be a strong one. We are on the eve of ' big surprises,' and our 

 conviction is, that a price of 4.S. kd. for fine Para will be seen 

 before the year ends, and of course all other grades will rise in 

 proportion." 



AN ENGLISH REPORT VIA GERMANY. 



On the principle that " one must go from home to get the 

 news," may be explained the appearance in the Gummi-Zeitung 

 (Dresden), of June 21, of a report from Liverpool of matters 

 pertaining to the rubber import trade in the United States 

 which have not been published elsewhere. The Liverpool 

 report states that on account of the " battle waged " between 

 certain American interests, " it has been impossible to close 

 transactions of any importance during the past few days." The 

 prices quoted by one New York house, named by our con- 

 temporary, are said " to make it difficult to understand its 

 modus operandi, which will prevent the company from obtain- 

 ing any quantity of rubber in Para, even though it should suc- 

 ceed in forcing the prices down there." But this latter is out 

 of the question, according to this Liverpool correspondent, 

 " because the harvest is nearly ended and receipts of Upriver 

 will consequently be small in the near future." 



"A few months ago it was expected that the agents of the 

 New York company were inclined to ' bull ' the market, calcu- 

 lating on higher prices, but evidently they have changed their 

 tactics in our [Liverpool] maiket, endeavoring to force down 

 the prices. The leading firms in Liverpool of course are not 

 influenced by this movement, being convinced that the ' bear ' 

 tactics can be of but short duration, and as all conditions jus- 

 tify the belief that a little later on better prices will prevail, it 

 is not to be wondered at that large holders await the time 

 when business can be transacted on a clean basis, without suf- 

 fering large losses, such as several parties are suffering now." 



The letter, continuing, says that all reports from Para and 

 Manaos seem to agree as to future prospects. " A promi- 

 nent house, well versed in the conditions in Amazonas, writes 

 that the quantities of provisions sent to the Upriver districts 

 are materially less than those of last year, and consists of the 

 actual necessities of life only, barring all atticles of luxury," 

 the quantity estimated at 40 per cent, less than last year. 

 " Nevertheless the opinion seems to prevail that in all proba- 

 bility large receipts of rubber will be recorded for the ensuing 

 few months, the natives being so sorely pressed for necessary 

 food that the steamers will be practically besieged by them, to 

 exchange provisions for rubber - - - - but it must be con- 

 sidered that the consumption is growing to such an extent 

 that the demand will conquer all opposition " to any advance in 

 prevailing prices. 



THE BOSTON UBERO COMPANY. 



AMONG the advertising pages of this month's issue, will 

 be noted the advertisement of The Ubero Plantation 

 Co., of Boston, a company to which two prominent rubber men 

 have paid the high compliment of lending their names, as 

 president and vice president, respectively. The Ubero com- 

 panies are making very rapid progress at the present time in 

 equipping their plantation on the isthmus of Tehuantepec. A 

 special instance of their progressive ideas is the use of Amer- 

 ican agricultural machinery for cultivating, which brings the 

 rubber question down to a minimum in the matter of labor cost. 



Thinks Well of His Own Work.— Walter Scott Strow- 

 ger, of Rochester, New York, according to a press despatch 

 from that city," has just invented an electrical storage battery 

 that he says beats anything of the kind ever offered by Edison 

 and the other electrical experts." He has also invented, to go 

 with this battery, "a substance to take the place of the India- 

 rubber casing, which is superior to rubber for the purpose and 

 is 90 per cent, cheaper and more desirable." 



