THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



October i, 1910.] 



International Rubber Exhibition in project for London 

 next year promises to be supported so liberally is in 

 itself good cause for satisfaction to the trade. 



We extend to all rubber men renewed assurances of 

 our distinguished consideration, and again congratulate 

 them upon being in the game to-day, as compared with 

 the "good old times" only twenty-one years back. 



WHAT WILL THE TIRE HARVEST BE? 



THI^ topic uf chief interest in ilic rubber trade just 

 now is the future of the tire business. True, the 

 price i.>f crude rubber is a matter of unceasing interest, 

 but when people really want rubber goods the price is of 

 secondary importance ; when they don't want rubber 

 goods, no price is low enough to tempt them. 



The tire manufacturers are considering whether next 

 season's demand will equal that of the season last closed. 

 Likewise this is a question for the makers of other rubber 

 goods. A few months ago, when the tire men were fall- 

 ing over each other to buy rubber at constantly advancing 

 prices, the effect was to put up the cost of the raw mate- 

 rial for erasers and baby rattles and garden hose as well. 

 If fewer tires should be needed next year, and assuming 

 the supply of rubber to be maintained, there would be re- 

 lief in every other branch of the rubber industry. 



Xor is it in relation to rubber, only that concern is felt 

 in the industry over the cost of raw materials as affected 

 by the demand for tires. The production of fewer tires 

 would lessen the pressure upon the cotton supply, to say 

 nothing of the other supplies which the rubber industry 

 calls for. Every rubber man, therefore — and dealers and 

 consumers as well as manufacturers — has reason to be in- 

 terested in the question whether as many or more tires 

 will he wanted in 1911 than in the present year. 



It is not the purpose of this article to answer the ques- 

 tion here raised. It is the province of a newspaper to 

 rccdrd |>r('\ed facts rather than to indulge in prophecy, 

 and nowhere is it less safe to prophesy than in the rub- 

 ber trade, ilut there are a few considerations that occur 

 to us as worthy of note in this connection. 



Probably fewer automobiles will be made for next sea- 

 son than during the last. At a time when everybody able 

 to buy a car appeared anxious to acquire one. the makers 

 naturally sought to meet the demand. If the market has 

 been overstocked just now, it is only temijorarily. The 

 automobile, as we have insisted for .so many years, is 

 "here to stay." Sometimes, in a real estate "boom," too 

 many houses are built for immediate needs : but later 

 every house is occupied, and the work of building goes 

 on at an unprecedented rate. There will be more auto- 

 mobiles, rather than fewer, until better means of trans- 

 portation displace them. 



It is too early yet for the automobile builders to make 

 up their minds as to how big a trade to plan for next 

 season, but the figures are likely to be somewhat smaller. 

 It is a case of waiting for the trade to catch up with itself. 



Certainly the trade cannot always grow, year by year, at 

 the rate which we have seen recently. 



Suppose only the same number of machines should be 

 made this season as last. In view of the demand for re- 

 placements, the number of tires needed for 1911 would 

 be enormously larger than in any previous year. Sup- 

 pose the number of new cars should be reduced one- 

 fourth or more, still as many tires will he required. What 

 the rubber men may have done of late in slocking up 

 tires too liberally nobody knows; but the actual demand 

 for tires next year is not likely, under any conditions, to 

 fall short of that for the present year. 



We have dealt thus far only with automobile tires. The 

 fact that the coming automobile show at Madison Square 

 Garden, in New York, is to be followed by another show 

 under the same management, also lasting a week, devoted 

 In commercial motor vehicles, is eloquent testimony to 

 the growing importance of the latter type of vehicles, and 

 every one of these adds to the demand for rubber. 



This month falls in the dull season in rubber tires — 

 between the rush of last spring and what measure of trade 

 another spring may reveal — but even so, the tire industry 

 is only experiencing its beginnings, and it is a wise Pro- 

 vidence that has ordained the cultivation of rubber in time 

 to permit of a supply at one and the same time both for 

 tires, and the thousand and one other articles for which 

 the elastic srum is essential. 



PROGRESS ON THE MADEIRA. 



THE readers of The Indi.\ Rubber World have 

 been kept informed of indications of commercial 

 progress of the Madeira river, which is destined to 

 become an outlet to the world's richest natural rub- 

 ber field — Bolivia. Not the least important of these 

 indications is the regular publication, at the headquar- 

 ters of the engineering corps at work on the Madeira- 

 Mamore railway, by some of the bright young Ameri- 

 can engineers temporarily exiled there of a news- 

 paper — The Porto Velho Marcoiiigraiii. 



This remotely published little sheet is not as yet im- 

 pressive in appearance, but it happens to be of the 

 same size and general appearance as the earlier num- 

 bers of the Sun, which long has been one of the princi- 

 pal newspapers of New York. As indicating the up-to- 

 dateness of the Madeira river newspaper, it may be 

 mentioned that the latest issue recei\ed in New York 

 mentions the new prices for autdmobile tires quoted by 

 some of the leading American manufacturers. 



Rut what is of very much more importance is the 

 fact that a large part of the contents of the Marconi- 

 grain is devoted to the work in progress for improve- 

 ment in the sanitation of tiie Madeira valley. It is evi- 

 dent that definite results are being attained in this 

 work, and this is one of the most promising facts in 

 connection with the great enterprise now developing 

 for opening the Bolivian rublier field to the world. 



