568 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[July 1, 1914. 



RUBBER NOTES FROM SINGAPORE. 



By Our Special Currespuiidcnt. 



SIXCE the publication of my last letter, in the January issue 

 of The 1ndi.\ Rubber World, figures have become available 

 which change the feeling of speculation in regard to the future 

 position of wild rubber to one of almost absolute certainty. The 

 year 1913 saw the end of the domination of wild rubber — some 

 60,000 tons against 47.700 tons of plantation — and marked its en- 

 trance upon a subordinate position in annual crop statistics. This 

 year, 1914, will see wild rubber falling off in quantity, while 

 the plantation output is likely to be not less than 60,000 tons, 

 and may even reach 70,000 tons in the event of high prices, which 

 might tempt the opening up of areas not really matured suf- 

 ficiently for otherwise profitable results. For the last ten years 

 the supplies of assorted wild rubbers have been between 60,000 

 and 70,000 tons per year. This year the probabilities point to 

 only 45,000 tons, and for 1915, with plantation rubber at an aver- 

 age price of 2s., thereby taking the place of the cheap rubber of 

 the past, there is every prospect of the supply of wild rubber 

 not exceeding 30,000 tons. With no known economy can any 

 but the very best Fine Hard Para from the most easily accessible 

 regions be produced at a competitive price, and the inferior rub- 

 bers will have been mostly weeded out altogether. In fact I 

 venture to think that 30,000 tons of wild rubber for 1915, with 

 2s. plantation, is altogether too optimistic. 



There is a small temporary shortage in rubber in sight for 

 the present year, as the consumption is almost bound to be more 

 than the estimated production of 110,000 tons, for at the present 

 low prices, manufacturers seeing ahead the certainty of continued 

 cheap rubber will be able to formulate plans for enlarged con- 

 sumption through new and extended uses of raw rubber. There 

 is not the slightest fear of a temporary rise in price creating 

 increased supplies of wild rubber, the fact of cheap prices hav- 

 ing come to stay being too well known for encouragement to be 

 given to the organization of wild rubber enterprises. There will 

 always be a certain amount of wild rubber collected by natives of 

 the producing countries at trifling cost and sold for what it will 

 bring, but a few thousand pounds a year will cover this, as long 

 as it will pay the freight. Much wild rubber was bought in Africa 

 at Is. a pound in the old days, and this will probably be done 

 again on a small scale, unless manufacturers throw out such rub- 

 ber in favor of the standard, constant purity of plantation rubber. 



The 47,700 tons of plantation rubber produced in 1913 were 

 obtained from about 450.000 acres only of the l,500.(XX)-odd acres 

 planted in the Middle East. This is nearly all rubber planted up 

 to 1908, with a small quantity of 1909 rubber brought in under 

 the high price in early 1913. There are, roughly. 150,000 acres 

 more planted in 1909 which will be in bearing this year and which 

 will produce probably 4,000 or 5,000 pounds during the latter half 

 of the year. There were some 300,000 acres planted in 1910, which 

 will be in bearing by the end of 1915; 400,000 acres in 1911, bear- 

 ing in 1916, and 200,000 acres in 1912, bearing by the end of 1917. 

 These are merely rough figures, but they suffice to show to what 

 extent the years will bring their increase. The maximum produc- 

 tion will not exceed 400 pounds per acre, and it is probable that 

 the average in full bearing will be nearer 300 pounds per year. 



There is not the sHghtest doubt that Fine Hard Para will al- 

 ways command a market, but it is equally certain that within the 

 present year Malaya will be turning out large quantities of smoke 

 ■cured rubber made like Fine Hard but of greater purity. This 

 •rubber will be absolutely standardized and can be produced by 

 thousands of tons as soon as consumers show any desire for it. 

 Machines are now being made which will turn out 1,000 pounds 

 ■ of smoke cured rubber per day, worked by three coolies, the 

 rubber being produced direct from the latex by smoke coagulation 

 without the use of acid or other adulterations. By this and other 

 methods and the establishment here of a buying agency, manufac- 

 turers could have rubber made to suit their requirements for 

 .shipment direct to themselves within a few days' time. Such a 



buying agency, with a capital of $5,000,000, would be able to 

 handle 30,000 tons a year — basing this calculation on an average 

 price of 2s. for rubber and on New York payments, which are 

 usually on ninety days, so that the financial resources of the 

 company must be sufficient to take care of a three months' sup- 

 ply. Of this capital probably only about $2,000,000 would be re- 

 quired at the start, as the banks carry up to 70 per cent, on 

 bill of lading, with approved credit, at 6 per cent. Such an in- 

 vestment, beside affecting a material saving to the consumer, 

 would probably earn attractive dividends. The purchases would 

 be made on contract here at fi.xed rates and the quality would be 

 uniform and guaranteed, all the rubber being re-packed except 

 such as came from estates which had earned confidence. Cheap 

 freights and direct shipments would also tend to reduce first cost 

 to the consumer without robbing the producer. 



Consumers having awakened to the possibilities afforded by 

 direct shipments of rubber made to their order — which would 

 mean a considerable reduction in the London office profits of the 

 plantation companies — the resulting situation will probably be 

 most beneficial to the stockholders of such companies, as drastic 

 reforms in estate management, with material increase in efficiency 

 as well as decrease in cost of production, must take place. Some 

 of the company reports now coming to hand show a degree of 

 caution in striking contrast to reports issued in the past. 



The rubber industry in the colony is controlled almost entirely 

 by non-resident directors, many of whom have never even seen 

 a rubber tree and would hardly know rubber if they saw it. It 

 stands to reason, therefore, that their knowledge of the manage- 

 ment of estates — some of which are larger than the city of New 

 York, containing four or five, and even up to ten square miles 

 of planted rubber — is very limited, most of the agencies with 

 whom the executive administration is vested having power of 

 attorney to act for them. The local agents are usually merchants, 

 accountants, financial agents, etc., not planters, so that they find 

 it necessary to employ a visiting a,gent as a go-between. This 

 man is usually an old planter, not infrequently a man of only 

 moderate attainments who has passed his usefulness as an active 

 planter and who has a lot of fine old crusted beliefs, living en- 

 tirely in the past and combating every innovation. 



These men are usually extremely intolerant of any scientific 

 knowledge and of new discoveries and methods; and the un- 

 fortunate part of it is that they are generally able to impress 

 these views upon the agents, who knew them as successful plant- 

 ers in the old days. One of the unfailing w'eaknesses of the vis- 

 iting agents has been to write glowing and optimistic reports on 

 the companies over which they have control; but now that the 

 development of unproductive areas can no longer be given as an 

 excuse for failure to pay interim dividends — there being no un- 

 developed areas left, to speak of — not only will the office of 

 visiting agent probably be dispensed with, but the estate manager 

 will be obliged to bring himself up to date in methods, etc. He 

 must in the future be a technical expert — a specialist in the 

 manufacture of raw rubber as well as a planter; versed in up- 

 keep of land, roads, drains, plant diseases, etc. The great need 

 of the colony is for technical experts in the making and pro- 

 ducing of rubber itself. There are not many people here yet who 

 have any knowledge of this subject on modern lines, but the few 

 so equipped are making a reputation for themselves and are com- 

 mencing to influence the prosperity of individual estates. 



The opinions expressed in the past by promoters of rubber pro- 

 ducing companies in Sumatra, that they would not only be able 

 to bring their ruliber into bearing at very much cheaper rates 

 than in Malaya, but at a cost of some 3d. under the cost here, 

 have not been borne out by the actual results. Quite a number 

 of our rubber estates here — none of which have any secondary 

 crops to share the expense of land up-keep and administration — 

 have produced their rubber at an f. o. b. cost of Is., and several 

 at 9d. to lOd., during the last year ; which, considering that 

 the average area in bearing is still not more than one-half, and 



