186 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



[Janl-arv 1. 1914. 



to look at anything but the most conservative rule of thumb 

 methods. Now a little scicntilic knowledge is admitted to be 

 of some possible use. 



If the price rises to 3s. 6d. or more, which 1 anticipate for 

 .■\pril next, then the 1.400.000 existing planted acres will be 

 maintained, as it will become possible to tinaiice even the 

 weakest compan)-; but if the price is manipulated down, then 

 most certainly some 400.000 acres will give up ru))l)er cultiva- 

 tion entirely, and there will be trouble in heaps ahead for 

 the manufacturers in the future, as wild rubber will be ousted 

 and the supply of plantation will be kept fairly short under 

 the drastically economic methods necessary to secure a profit. 

 If the manufacturers will hold the market steady at the 

 3s. level for another year, then the future supply is assured 

 practically forever, but if acrobatic feats are played with the 

 financing of it this next year then there will he trouble 

 aplenty. 



A little forethought on the consumer's part now will perma- 

 nently assure a free market with a steady, well-regulated 

 supply, but any attempt to jockey the planting industry will 

 result in the formation of a monopolistic production that will 

 give points to an oyster for closeness. 



At 2s. per pound the bulk of our rubber, being yet onlj' 

 in its first and second years of lapping, cannot be produced 

 at a profit. Java and Sumatra companies talk loudly about 

 cheap costs, but a careful examination of statistics doesn't 

 seem to bear this out in most cases, somehow. The best 

 English Sumatra estates, with very large areas, are showing 

 good profits, largely due to good forward contracts, but the 

 bulk of the 300,000 odd acres (220,000 being under other 

 control) doesn't seem to pan out so well, due to administra- 

 tion, I presume, tho the poorer yields and the longer time 

 required to reach maturity, as compared with the Straits, 

 have a lot lo do with it. 



We in the Straits will soon be bringing our avera.ge cost 

 of production, all in, down to Is. 6d. all around, and by 1917 

 I expect it will average Imt little over Is. for the whole coun- 

 try; as, if the price is raised next year and large areas are 

 not allowed to go out of cultivation, practically the whole 

 of our present planted areas, up to and including much of 

 the 1912 planting — say nearly 700,000 acres — will lie in full 

 bearing, the bulk of the trees producing as much as they will 

 ever be allowed to do in the future. Standardization of 

 administration will also go a long way to bring this about. 

 I may say tliat liefore very long our ruliber will be turned 

 out just like I'"ine Hard Par.i. only better. 1 am patenting 

 a machine myself which will do this, and there are several 

 others being worked out, too. The rubber will be smoke- 

 cured direct from the latex in the form of thick sheets, which 

 will not have suflfcred irtim any cuntact with machinery while 

 in an immature form, and will be perfectly pure, containing 

 just the proportion of water — or absence of it — that manu- 

 facturers require. They can have their rubber made to order, 

 in fact, to suit their requirements. 



By the way, may I be permitted to point out that a small 

 error has crept into your calculations re the Japanese-planted 

 areas and future yields here, in your .\ugust issue. The total 

 area of land leased is 83,000 acres, but the planted area is 

 only 15,000 acres. They do not seem to be doing any too 

 well, owing to labor difficulties, and they don't seem to 

 "savvy" as well as the Chinese owners. There is practically 

 no Japanese labor on them, as they can't stand the climate. 

 The Japanese coolies who have been, taken to Brazil will 

 probably die like flies, bein.g quite unsuited to the climate 

 and the work. 



INSCRIPTION SALES. 



IN his recently published work "Factos Economicos" Dr. 

 ^ Miguel Calmon du Pin e .Almeida, professor at the Bahia 

 Polytechnic School, explains the manner of conducting "Incrip- 

 tion Sales." This system has been adopted in Antwerp with 

 nnich advantage to the growers of rubber and to the commerce 

 of the port. 



When lots of rubber reach Antwerp a sworn broker, a man 

 of perfect integrity and enjoying the confidence of the trade, 

 examines the product minutely, then describing and valuing it. 

 The valuation is in accordance with the general conditions of 

 the world's production and consumption, the visible or estimated 

 stocks and the demands or assumed requirements of buyers. The 

 results of this estimate are embodied in a notice indicating: 

 (1) Names of vessels. (2) Name of the Antwerp commission 

 house for whose account the merchandize is to be sold. (3) 

 Number of each lot. {4) Weight of the rubber offered for sale. 

 (5) Estimate of price by the broker. (6) Summarized descrip- 

 tion of the product. (7) Date of sale by inscription. 



The above notification, printed at least twenty days before the 

 day of sale, is sent with samples to the large .American. Russian, 

 German and French buyers, so that they may have time to send 

 in their buying orders. 



On the day appointed all these buying orders are handed to 

 the broker, closed and sealed. The opening of the bids com- 

 mences at 10:30 a. m., and no bid can be accepted after that 

 hour. .As fast as the prices are announced they are written 

 down upon a large printed form with about 15 columns. The 

 first column on the left contains the lot numbers and the second 

 the valuation by the broker, while each of the other columns has 

 at its head the name of one of the houses bidding and in the lines 

 below the prices offered for the respective lots. In this way the 

 bids can be compared. The lots go to the higher bidder, unless 

 the seller uses his right of withdrawal from sale. 



-At 12 :30 p. m. there is a general meeting of the sellers and 

 buyers, when the broker reads off the results of the bids entered 

 upon the tabular sheet. When (as rarely happens) two buyers 

 make identical bids the question is settled by one of them giving 

 way. by dividing the lot, by drawing lots, or by giving the lot to 

 the buyer willing to pay the highest price for it. 



Bidders are bound to the prices offered by them even when 

 theirs are the only offers and exceed the broker's estimates. 

 The author adds: 



"This system would be of advantage to our rubber producers 

 as well as to our merchants. The rubber could leave Para or 

 Manaos sold directly to the consumers by the scririgueros. who 

 might form a co-operative organization for that purpose, dis- 

 pensing with onerous intermediaries." 



Replete with information for rubber manufacturers — Mr. 

 Pearson's "Crude Rubber and Compoiuiding Ingredients." 



A CONSULAR REPORT ON MALAY RUBBER CONDmONS. 



The L'nited States consul general at Singapnre. Air. Edwin 

 S. Cunningham, in a report which appeared in the Daily Con- 

 sular Reports of December 12 last, has this paragraph on present 

 rubber conditions in the Malay States : 



"Within six luonths, the price of the best grade of planta- 

 tion rubber, the second item of iiuportance in the country's pro- 

 duction, fell from $102 to $51 per 100 pounds, and lower qualities 

 suffered more than a corresponding decline. .A further decline 

 has occurred since June 30 and every branch of business in this 

 section is interested in the question whether still lower prices 

 are to come. The results have been the introduction of more 

 economical methods in the rubber industry and a decline in rub- 

 ber shares, almost universally held and heretofore considered 

 •in excellent investment. Fortunately, tho the unexpected and 

 abnormal depression has been severely felt, the country is too 

 rich in resources to be seriously affected for a long period by 

 a depreciation in the price of one article. 



