April 1, 1914.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



383 



RITTER, RITTER & CO.'S REVIEW AND FORECAST. 



RUBBER GROWERS' ASSOCIATION. 



I N a Ungtliy report Messrs. Rilter, Ritter & Co., of London, 

 * deal with the features of the eventful year 1913, with its 

 fluctuations in the prices of rubber, all of which have passed into 

 history. 



Of nioie special interest is their forecast of 1914. 



While the figures shown for the production and consumption 

 of 1913 (114.020 and 104,700 tons) differ somewhat from other 

 estimates, they are sufficiently close to afford a basis of com- 

 parison. There is, however, a wide discrepancy between the 

 grand totals of visible supply on December 1, 1912 and 1913, 

 which were respectively 16,080 and 24,935 tons. In any calcula- 

 tions for 1914 this last named factor has to be considered. 



Messrs. Ritter, on the ground that the prices even as they 

 stand for plantation rubber will induce the companies to force 

 tapping, consider the recent estimate of 65 — 70,000 tons planta- 

 tion rubber for 1914 as niislcailiiig, placing it at the Akers esti- 

 mate of 84,250 tons, following up the 50.000 tons reported for 

 1913. This makes a total estimate for 1914 of: 



Tons. 



Plantation 85— 90,000 



Mediums, etc 25— 25,000 



Para and Caucho 35— 40,000 



145—155,000 



-Adding visililc supply on Jan. !. 1914.. 25—25.000 



About 170—180,000 



which consumption will be asked to absorb. Against this the 

 world's consumption, on basis of a 10 per cent, advance on 1913, 

 will only make about 115,000 tons. 



Such is the problem before the trade ! The factor open to 

 discussion is the possible excess over the lower estimate of the 

 actual shipments of plantation rubber this year. In fact, on the 

 basis of the progressively increased yield of older trees, the 

 prospective quantity of plantation rubber for 1914 is shown as 

 90,750 tons. The opinion is expressed that an enormous over- 

 production is now in progress. Messrs. Ritter ask "What will 

 become of the surplus of about 55 — 65,000 tons, and at what 

 prices will it be taken up? Will it be possible to increase 

 consumption by adding a larger percentage of actual rubber to 

 the compositions of manufactured goods? Will the manufacture 

 of new articles expand consumption materially? It is at present 

 impossible to foresee any new outlets for the above surplus. . . 

 There remains only the question as to how far prices must be 

 lowered to effect its realization and to place the position on a 

 sound basis." 



Messrs. Ritter point out that their forecast of March, 1913, 

 of 2s. 6d.— 3s. (60.81— 72.98c.) for plantation rubber during the 

 fall, though objected to at the time it was made, was more than 

 justified by subsequent events. 



As to the crucial point of the cost of production the following 

 opinion is expressed as to the future: 



"It must not be forgotten that the present level of costs . . . 

 can be reduced still further to a considerable extent and will 

 ultimately range about 6 — 7 pence (12.16 — 14.19c.) per pound. An 

 ultimate selling price of 8— 9d. (16.21— 18.24c.) per pound, there- 

 fore, appears unavoidable. ... Do the plantation companies 

 seriously expect that the present inflated price level of about 

 2s. 5d.— 2s. 6d. (58.79— 60.81c.) will be kept up?" 



These opinions are quoted as illustrating possibly extreme 

 views, but none the less of interest. 



There is said to be considerable demand in India for hose sup- 

 porters, the rubber in this article wearing out very quickly under 

 conditions of climate which prevail there. 



""piiE meeting of the Rubber Growers' Association, held in 



* London on February 19, was of special interest, as it en- 

 ai)led the officials to concisely explain the recent features of the 

 rubber market. Chief interest naturally attached to the explana- 

 tions regarding plantation rubber in the review of the situation by 

 Mr. Noel Trotter, the chairman. 



While 1910 will be memorable for the rubber boom, so will 

 1913 be associated with the great slump, which brought down 

 standard crepe from 4s. 8d. (113.52c.) to Is. lO'Ad. (45.61c.); 

 though it subsequently recovered to 2s. 3d. (54.73c.). This drop 

 led to the formulation of a number of schemes for immediately 

 re-establishing the price of the raw material; including a "central 

 selling agency," or in other words, a plan of collective bargaining. 

 Mr. Trotter expressed the opinion that such a system is inap- 

 plicable to the rubber industry as it now exists, with its chief 

 markets so widely separated as they are. Hard fine Para opened 

 in 1913 at 4s. 7}4d. (112.51c.) per pound, closing at the end of 

 the year at 3s. IJ^d. (76.02c.) per pound. 



The world's total production is estimated at 112,000 tons against 

 98,950 tons in 1912; consumption having been, respectively, 

 106,000 and 99,000 tons. 



In proof of the excellent quality of plantation is the fact that 

 the production for 1912—28,500 tons, and of 1913—47,000 tons, 

 all went straight into consumption. Messrs. Clayton, Beadle & 

 Stevens, the consulting chemists of the association, had reported 

 plantation as being chemically identical with fine hard. No 

 chemical tests can distinguish between these rubbers when 

 manufactured and they equally withstand the most vigorous 

 stretching and other physical tests. 



In September there was a difference in price between the two 

 of Is. 6d. (36.49c.) per pound. This difference had been reduced 

 by the end of the year to about 8d. (16.21c.) per pound, chiefly 

 owing to the advanced value of plantation rubber. The lower 

 price of plantation has drawn to it the attention of manufac- 

 turers accustomed to use Para in the hope of its enabling them 

 to hold their own with competitors using the Eastern product. 



At the time of the fall in 1907-8. Para had to bear the brunt 

 of the decline; falling to 2s. 9d. (66.89c.) per pound. 



STANDARDIZATION. 



A strong committee of the association had devoted much time 

 to collecting information on this subject and had recommended 

 the establishment of an experimental factory in the United King- 

 dom in conjunction with a testing station. The report has had a 

 mixed reception from manufacturers ; the idea having been ex- 

 pressed that the gradual education of the plantations to what is 

 required by the manufacturer and the establishment of a range 

 of standards to which the plantations could work, would be 

 preferable. 



A fully equipped vulcanizin.g plant has been installed at 

 Kuala Lumpur, available to planters for testing samples sub- 

 mitted. The matter will be further considered when replies are 

 received from the various manufacturers. 



QUALITY. 



Owing to the greater care being exercised and the elimination 

 of the tapping of immature trees an improvement has taken 

 place in the preparation and quality of plantation rubber. With 

 a view to further improvement a set of recommendations has 

 been drawn up for the treatment of latex and curing of rubber, 

 so as to ensure uniformity of product. The advantage of such a 

 course is illustrated by the fact that certain manufacturers, for 

 buying purposes, schedule various estates into groups according 

 to the uniformity of quality and type of their rubber. 



The London standard of quality for plantation rubber is ac- 

 cepted all over the world. 



NEW USES FOR RUBBER. 

 The speaker also stated that new and larger uses for rubber 



